Markets at a glance

The easing of maize and wheat export prices is helping to mitigate rising freight and insurance costs associated with shipping disruptions for importers. Conversely, farmers have adapted to reduced profit margins by transitioning to alternative crops. As a result, winter wheat plantings for harvest in 2024 decreased in Ukraine (areas under Government control), and the United States. Spring plantings might make up the decline in some countries. Similarly, there is a likelihood of a shift away from maize toward soybeans, made more attractive by increasing crude oil prices which improve prospects for biofuels demand. Although overall crop conditions at the end of March do not raise alarm, market-driven adjustments to planting areas could impact sentiment on the global markets should significant weather events occur during the rest of the season.

• Wheat production in 2023 revised upwards fractionally m/m with slightly higher estimates in Argentina and Australia, but still 2.3 percent below the 2022 global output.
• Utilization in 2023/24 lifted , now surpassing the 2022/23 level by 2.0 percent, underpinned by higher feed use in Argentina and other use in the UK.
• Trade in 2023/24 (July/June) raised with higher sales from the Russian Federation and stronger import demand from the EU, Thailand, and the UK, but still falling 0.7 percent below 2022/23.
• Stocks (ending in 2024) declining 2.0 percent below opening levels after downward revision mostly attributed to a cut in the Russian Federation’s inventories.

• Maize 2023 production set to exceed the 2022 level by 5.4 percent following a further upward revision with larger estimates for Argentina and the EU.
• Utilization in 2023/24 raised on higher feed use, especially in Mexico and Saudi Arabia, and other uses, and now 1.8 percent above the 2022/23 level.
• Trade in 2023/24 (July/June) likely to increase by 3.3 percent above the 2022/23 level and unchanged m/m as a downward revision to the EU imports was offset by larger purchases by Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and the UK.
• Stocks (ending in 2024) scaled down, mostly in Argentina, the EU, and Mexico, but still expected 10.3 percent above opening levels.

• Rice production in 2023/24 only fractionally changed m/m and still expected to recover y/y, thanks to an overall abundant crop in Asia, as well as expansions in Africa and the US.
• Utilization in 2023/24 still seen falling somewhat y/y, as a population driven increase in food intake could be outweighed by cuts in non-food uses.
• Trade in 2024 still seen contracting for the second successive year, reflecting prospects of import cuts by all regions, except for Europe and Latin America and the Caribbean.
• Stocks (2023/24 carry-out) up marginally m/m, largely owing to a small upward revision to reserves held by Indonesia.

• Soybean 2023/24 production virtually unchanged m/m, with a lower forecast for Brazil amid unfavourable conditions in some major growing regions offset by an upward adjustment for India.
• Utilization in 2023/24 raised slightly, reflecting expectations of higher crushings in China due to improving margins and in India following higher domestic output.
• Trade in 2023/24 (Oct/Sep) upgraded on a higher import forecast for China, while export projections were raised for Brazil and Argentina.
• Stocks (2023/24 carry-out) lifted moderately, with expected replenishment in China partially offset by a lower forecast for Brazil, resulting in a 10.5 percent y/y increase in global inventories.