AMIS > Country work > Yield forecasts

Yield forecasting

Improving methodologies for crop yield forecasting at sub-national, national and international level is fundamental to provide decision makers and private actors with timely information for rapid and sound decisions during the growing season. Crop production and yield forecasts also support food policy decisions and the strategic planning of food security programmes. For these and other reasons, strengthening crop production forecasting constitutes a core research priority of AMIS.

In practice, crop production forecasts are obtained as the product of two components (1) the estimation of area devoted to a given crop, and 2) the estimation of expected yield per unit of area. While there are no major constraints with the available methodologies for area estimation, forecasting yield is still a major challenge in many countries. In order to fill methodological gaps in yield forecasting, following activities have been implemented:

  • Reviewing and documenting existing practices for crop yield forecasting, selecting countries with recognized expertise in this area and at different stages of statistical capacity development. Besides the methodological issues, the review focused on human and physical resources needed to set up, run and update the system. Particular attention was devoted to yield forecasting methodologies suitable for the AMIS crops, namely wheat, maize, rice and soybeans.
  • Identifying yield forecasting methods by using a combination of ground and remotely sensed data, looking at the required data infrastructure and institutional set-up behind each method.
  • Providing guidance on the identified trade-offs between cost/capacity/quality related to the implementation of each method. This research was conducted in close collaboration with the Global Strategy to Improve Agricultural and Rural Statistics.

Related Resources

Jul 2017
Having reliable forecasts of food production remains a major challenge in many countries. This literature review, prepared as part of an AMIS capacity building project financed by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, provides an overview of recent practices and advances in the area of crop yield forecasting at farm and parcel level. It complements an earlier study entitled "Crop Yield Forecasting: Methodological and Institutional Aspects", released in February 2016, which covered crop yield forecasting at regional and national levels.