La Niña causing drier-than-normal conditions
According to the December 2016 edition of the AMIS Market Monitor, La Niña conditions are established in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. They are anticipated to persist through January 2017, followed by transition to a neutral state.
Consistent with this, broad areas of the Horn of Africa are experiencing a drier than normal October-December rainy season, with some areas characterized by drought with the worst vegetation conditions in fifteen years. Drier than normal conditions are expected in the next three months in southwest Asia, southeastern China, southeastern South America, and the southern United States. By contrast, above average rainfall is favoured for southern Africa, Southeast Asia, Australia, and northern South America.