El Niño in decline, but still impacting food security
El Niño continues to decline from its peak strength in late 2015, with neutral conditions expected by June. However, it has already affected 60 million people through droughts, floods and extreme weather, according to several UN sources. Aftermath impacts on food security are expected to continue well into next year.
Rains in Southern Africa in March provided relief for pastures and water supplies, but came too late to mitigate widespread and severe drought impacts on crop production. Significant precipitation also arrived in Central Asia, likewise later than usual, in this case improving summer water supply prospects for important areas of irrigated agriculture in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Tajikistan. Drought is expected to continue throughout June in Southeast Asia and across northern South America, including northeast Brazil.
El Niño impacts are not anticipated in the main summer growing season (June-July-August) of the northern hemisphere with the exception of southeast Asia. Thereafter, neutral conditions are expected during the last quarter of 2016, while there is also a possibility of transition to La Niña. Based on past El Niño events and model projections the probability for La Niña are approximately 50 percent; 40 percent for neutral; and 10 percent for a continuation of El Niño.