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El Niño possible this year, but expected weaker than in 2015/16

06 Sep 2018

Current El Niño Southern Oscillation conditions are neutral. Models indicate that a weak to moderate strength El Niño may develop during the northern hemisphere 2018 fall season and be present through the northern hemisphere 2018/19 winter (60-70 percent chance). This event is forecast to be substantially weaker than the most recent El Niño in 2015/16.

Should El Niño materialize, normal to above normal rains could occur in Central Asia, southern North America, south-eastern South America, and East Africa. Normal to drier than normal conditions could occur in Central America, Caribbean, northern South America, Southern Africa, the Maritime Continent, and Australia.