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Hot and dry weather curbing wheat yields

02 Aug 2018

Wheat harvests are wrapping up amid excessive hot and dry weather in many regions, which has sharply reduced production forecasts. These developments confirm earlier concerns that wheat markets are heading for tighter conditions in the 2018/19 marketing season, with production expected to significantly fall below last year’s record. The AMIS Secretariat will continue monitoring the situation and provide further insights when new forecasts are released on 5 September 2018.

According to the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor published today, several wheat producing countries are affected by the current heat wave. However, the situation is not alarming everywhere in the world:

  • In the European Union, hot and dry conditions have affected large areas across northern and central Europe, where harvest is ongoing and which account for over a third of the EU's wheat production.
  • In Ukraine, harvest is nearing completion, while hot and dry conditions during the season have impacted yields in the south and east of the country.
  • In the Russian Federation, winter wheat harvesting has begun earlier than normal due to dry conditions. In some areas, hot and dry conditions during the season have reduced yields markedly compared to last year, most noticeably in Volga and in the south, but for the most part are within the five year average. Spring wheat is under favourable conditions with recent rains benefiting soil moisture conditions across the region.
  • In Kazakhstan, spring wheat conditions are favourable, benefitting from good climatic conditions in the north.
  • In China, conditions are generally favourable as harvest wraps up for winter wheat and continues for spring wheat.
  • In the United States, winter wheat harvest has wrapped up with a much lower than normal production in the southern Great Plains due to constant drought. However, the rest of the country is under favourable conditions. Spring wheat conditions are favourable as harvesting is beginning.
  • In Canada, spring and winter wheat conditions are mixed across the prairies, with dryness along the southern border and favourable conditions further north.
  • In Australia, rainfall deficits continue in New South Wales, Queensland, and parts of South Australia in the vegetative stage, potentially affecting final yields. Generally average rainfall during July in the rest of the country has benefited crop development. 
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