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La Niña is on its way out

07 May 2018

La Niña conditions are still present, though they are weak and in transition to a neutral state. There is a 70 percent chance that the neutral state will be established by the end of May. Thereafter, neutral conditions are expected (with greater than 50 percent probability) to persist throughout the northern hemisphere summer of 2018. Seasonal forecast models point to a possible shift to El Niño conditions by December 2018, but given the long lead time that outcome is quite uncertain at this time.