Typical impacts of La Niña on the world during Northern Hemisphere winter. www.climate.gov
Typical impacts of La Niña on the world during Northern Hemisphere winter. www.climate.gov
07 Apr 2018
A La Niña Advisory has been in effect since November 2017, though there is a 55 percent probability of transition to neutral conditions by the [...]
05 Apr 2018
The potential trade dispute between China and the United States might affect the stability of global food markets, especially if soybeans (and other agricultural commodities) [...]
Delegates at the 2018 meeting of the AMIS Rapid Response Forum
Delegates at the 2018 meeting of the AMIS Rapid Response Forum
15 Mar 2018
Canada was unanimously elected as the new AMIS Chair. The chairmanship will be passed over from Argentina at the next meeting of the Global Food Market [...]
DG WTO Roberto Azevêdo (right) with the AMIS Chair Jésus Silveyra (left). © WTO
DG WTO Roberto Azevêdo (right) with the AMIS Chair Jésus Silveyra (left). © WTO
17 Nov 2017
Speaking earier this week at the Global Food Market Information Group, the Director-General of the World Trade Organization (WTO) Roberto Azevêdo stressed that AMIS promotes [...]

last release: April 2018

Market Monitor

 

From previous forecast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

Despite poor soybean production in Argentina and risks to trade flows arising from potential disputes between China and the United States, a bumper crop in Brazil is set to contribute to an overall comfortable soybean supply situation for several months. With the focus gradually shifting towards the new season, early indications point to somewhat lower wheat and maize output. Still, record-high carryover stocks from the current season and another increase in rice production are likely to keep global supplies of wheat, maize and rice adequate in 2018/19.

2016/17

2017/18 

estimate

1 Mar

5 Apr

Production

759.6

757.0

757.4

Supply

990.0

1006.7

1009.7

Utilization

733.9

733.6

736.4

Trade

176.6

173.5

173.8

Ending Stocks

252.0

272.7

272.0

in million tonnes

  • Wheat production in 2017 revised up slightly; now just marginally (0.3 percent) below the 2016 record. 
  • Utilization in 2017/18 raised further mainly reflecting higher-than-earlier projected industrial use in the EU and feed use in the Russian Federation. 
  • Trade in 2017/18 (July/June) almost unchanged from last month with significant upward adjustment to exports from the Russian Federation nearly offsetting lower anticipated shipments from other exporters, in particular from the EU.
  • Stocks (ending in 2018) slightly down from the previous forecast but still at an all-time high.

2016/17

2017/18 

estimate

1 Mar

5 Apr

Production

1046.4

1084.4

1087.0

Supply

1283.0

1327.3

1328.0

Utilization

1039.7

1069.3

1072.2

Trade

139.9

144.4

145.5

Ending Stocks

241.0

252.9

247.2

in million tonnes

  • Maize production in 2017 raised further since last month, mostly on a significant upward revision in the EU. 
  • Utilization in 2017/18 increased, taking into account higher feed use, particularly in the EU and South America.
  • Trade in 2017/18 (July/June) even more robust than projected earlier on stronger import prospects for the EU, Turkey and several Asian countries.
  • Stocks (ending in 2018) adjusted downwards but still at a record; the revision mostly reflects higher drawdowns in the Republic of Korea and the US.

2016/17

2017/18 

estimate

1 Mar

5 Apr

Production

500.2

502.2

503.2

Supply

667.6

670.8

672.1

Utilization

497.5

503.6

503.0

Trade

47.9

46.0

46.9

Ending Stocks

168.9

170.4

171.3

in million tonnes

  • Rice production upgraded, as improved prospects for India more than outweigh cuts mainly for Indonesia and Tanzania.
  • Utilization in 2017/18 trimmed, but still pointing to a 1.1 percent food-driven expansion.
  • Trade in 2018 raised somewhat, mostly reflecting higher than previously anticipated imports by Bangladesh and Indonesia.
  • Stocks (ending in 2018) now put 1.4 percent above their opening levels, but aggregate stocks in the major exporters still seen contracting.

2016/17

2017/18 

estimate

1 Mar

5 Apr

Production

348.8

345.2

336.8

Supply

393.1

396.9

388.2

Utilization

341.3

351.4

349.1

Trade

149.2

153.2

154.0

Ending Stocks

51.4

47.3

42.0

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2017/18 production forecast lowered significantly, mostly reflecting a sharp downward revision for Argentina. 
  • Utilization in 2017/18 slightly down compared to last month, shaped by lower crushing forecasts for several countries, notably Argentina and Brazil.
  • Trade forecast for 2017/18 broadly unchanged, with higher exports by Brazil expected to compensate for lower shipments from Argentina and Uruguay. 
  • Stocks forecast (2017/18 carry-out) down sharply m/m and now pointing to a four-year low. Compared to last month, sharp downward revisions for Argentina and Brazil are only partially compensated by moderate upward adjustments in the US. 

INDICATORS

Events

AMIS on

COUNTRY DATA