© Wikimedia: Crop harvest in Indonesia
© Wikimedia: Crop harvest in Indonesia
12 Jul 2017
Having reliable forecasts of food production remains a major challenge in many countries. A new AMIS publication provides an extensive literature review of recent practices [...]
10 Jul 2017
To help achieve global food security, heads of state and government from the world’s leading economies recognize the crucial role of functioning and transparent global [...]
06 Jul 2017
According to the latest edition of the AMIS Market Monitor, the outlook for AMIS crops in 2017/18 remains positive. Global maize markets are expected to be [...]
28 Jun 2017
Mr. Jesús María Silveyra of Argentina (right) is the new AMIS Chair. Mr. Silveyra took over the Chairmanship from Mr. Friedrich Wacker of Germany (left) [...]

last release: July 2017

Market Monitor

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

Although deteriorating crop conditions in the US and the EU have sustained significant increases in international wheat prices in recent weeks, world wheat supplies are expected to remain adequate in 2017/18, with stocks projected to end the season above their already high opening levels. Global maize markets are also seen well supplied, given record harvests in the southern hemisphere, while overall prospects for rice and soybeans remain favourable as well. Notwithstanding this generally positive outlook for AMIS crops in 2017/18, much will still depend on weather conditions, especially during the critical summer months in the northern hemisphere.

2016/17

2017/18 forecast

estimate

8 Jun

6 Jul

Production

760.1

743.2

739.9

Supply

984.2

990.6

987.0

Utilization

713.9

728.3

727.7

Trade

174.2

171.0

171.8

Ending Stocks

247.1

257.4

255.8

in million tonnes

  • Wheat production forecast lowered, reflecting downward revisions mostly in Europe due to dry conditions. While falling by 2.7 percent y/y, global wheat production would still be the second highest on record.
  • Utilization in 2017/18 reduced, mainly on lower-than-earlier projected growth in feed use in the EU.
  • Trade forecast for 2017/18 (July/June) raised, reflecting stronger import demand, especially in several non-AMIS countries.
  • Stocks (ending in 2018) lowered on downward adjustments in Argentina and the EU; but still high thanks to a sharp anticipated y/y increase in China.

2016/17

2017/18 forecast

estimate

8 June

6 July

Production

1038.9

1054.0

1057.9

Supply

1262.6

1282.7

1289.4

Utilization

1034.0

1054.8

1055.4

Trade

139.0

136.8

140.0

Ending Stocks

231.5

220.4

225.7

in million tonnes

  • Maize production in 2018 set to exceed the 2017 peak following record outputs in Argentina, Brazil and South Africa; the latest forecast is higher than in May, mostly reflecting upward revisions in the US. 
  • Utilization in 2017/18 could rise 2.1 percent from 2016/17 on expectations of firmer demand for feed and industrial use.
  • Trade forecast for 2017/18 (July/June) lifted significantly m/m, reflecting stronger import demand in the face of ample export supplies.
  • Stocks (ending in 2018) falling by less than forecast last month on upward revisions in China and the US.

2016/17

2017/18 forecast

estimate

8 June

6 July

Production

499.3

502.6

502.9

Supply

670.9

673.6

673.6

Utilization

499.7

505.7

505.6

Trade

44.2

44.2

44.4

Ending Stocks

170.7

170.5

171.0

in million tonnes

  • Rice production forecast upgraded slightly, as more buoyant prospects for Brazil, Pakistan and Myanmar are outweighed by reductions for the US and Vietnam.
  • Utilization still forecast to grow by 1.2 percent y/y, with food use set to expand by a similar margin.
  • Trade in calendar 2018 little varied m/m, as upward adjustments to exports by China, India and Myanmar offset reductions for Thailand and Pakistan.
  • Stocks (ending in 2018) raised somewhat, on upward revisions to carryovers in Bangladesh, Myanmar and the Philippines. Conversely, major exporters’ inventories downscaled.

2016/17

2017/18 forecast

estimate

8 June

6 July

Production

349.6

344.1

342.4

Supply

394.2

394.3

398.1

Utilization

334.6

350.2

346.3

Trade

144.6

146.6

149.0 

Ending Stocks

55.6

45.2

51.5

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2017/18 production forecast lowered slightly, reflecting downward corrections for Brazil, India and Canada. Despite a drop of 2.1 percent from 2016/17, global output would be the second-highest on record.
  • Utilization projected to expand by 3.5 percent in 2017/18, with countries in Asia (led by China) and the US driving growth.
  • Trade forecast for 2017/18 revised upwards, now anticipated to post a 3.3 percent increase from 2016/17.
  • Stocks (2017/18 carry-out) projected to contract some 4 million tonnes from the 2016/17 all-time high. The largest reductions are expected in Argentina and Brazil.

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