04 Feb 2016
Wheat, maize, rice and soybean prices continue their downward trend, according to the first AMIS Market Monitor of 2016 published today. Abundant supplies, together with [...]
Field test of crop cutting survey in the Philippines
Field test of crop cutting survey in the Philippines
19 Jan 2016
This month concludes a three-year capacity building project in Thailand and the Philippines. In partnership with national statistical offices and ministries of agriculture AMIS helped [...]
16 Dec 2015
Efi Respati of Indonesia and Untima Sangsubhan of Thailand successfully completed the third cycle of the AMIS Exchange Programme. Earlier this year, Damir Zhaksylykov of Kazakhstan had [...]
15 Dec 2015
Release of the official video of the first AMIS Food Outlook Conference, Expo Milan, 19 October 2015.   

last release: February 2016

Market Monitor

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

Roundup

Abundant supply weighed on international prices with the appreciation of the US dollar and falling oil prices also contributing to negative sentiment across commodity markets. While early prospects for wheat and maize crops to be harvested in 2016 are less buoyant than last year, large stocks are likely to provide a significant cushion should production decline this year.

2014/15

2015/16 f'cast

estimate

3 Dec

4 Feb

Production

733

735

737

Supply

922

938

943

Utilization

714

728

729

Trade

156

150

151

Ending Stock

206

207

211

in million tonnes

  • Wheat  production in 2015 upgraded by 2.3 million tonnes on larger than last anticipated harvests in Canada and Russia.
  • Utilization in 2015/16 forecast higher, mostly on greater feed use in Russia and the Philippines, now suggesting a 2 percent increase from 2014/15.
  • Trade in 2015/16 raised by 2 million tonnes but still remaining below the previous season’s level, mainly because of smaller expected imports by Morocco, Iran and Turkey.
  • Stocks (ending in 2016) lifted by 3.8 million tonnes on larger inventories in Argentina, China, Russia and Ukraine; now expected to reach their highest level in 13 years.

2014/15

2015/16 f'cast

estimate

3 Dec

4 Feb

Production

1032

1001

1004

Supply

1216

1227

1220

Utilization

998

1002

1001

Trade

129

128

128

Ending Stock

217

225

219

in million tonnes

  • Maize production in 2015 raised by 2.6 million tonnes, on improved estimates for China and Canada more than offsetting downward adjustments in the EU, Ukraine and the US.
  • Utilization to increase marginally in 2015/16, in spite of higher food and feed demand in several developing countries, dampened by a shift to feed wheat in Europe.
  • Trade in 2015/16 increased slightly with import forecasts for Viet Nam and South Africa higher than anticipated earlier.
  • Stocks (ending in 2016) cut by 5.7 million tonnes, following reduction in Brazil and revised (lower) historical carryovers in the EU (2004/05-20015/16).

2014/15

2015/16 f'cast

estimate

3 Dec

4 Feb

Production

494

491

492

Supply

666

663

664

Utilization

493

499

498

Trade

44.8

45.0

45.4

Ending Stock

172

166

167

in million tonnes

  • Rice production  in 2015 raised slightly, mainly on more optimistic forecasts for China and Senegal and despite lower crop estimates in Japan and Nepal.
  • Utilization in 2015/16 lowered, with much of the revision concerning those countries in Asia that are likely to face a tightening of supplies.
  • Trade in calendar 2016 upgraded on larger than last anticipated imports by Brazil, China, Indonesia and Guinea, and now approaching the 2014 record.
  • Stocks (ending in 2016) revised up, mainly on account of China, the EU and several Western Africa countries.

2014/15

2015/16 f'cast

estimate

3 Dec

4 Feb

Production

320

322

320

Supply

353

368

366

Utilization

302

318

319

Trade

126

129

132

Ending Stock

46

49

47

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2015/16 production cut by 2 million tonnes on lower estimates for the US and adverse weather affecting harvest prospects in parts of Brazil.
  • Global utilization raised marginally, implying a y/y expansion of 5.7 percent – a slowdown from last season.
  • Trade forecast lifted on stronger import demand by China, the EU, Bangladesh and Iran, to be met by larger shipments from Brazil and Argentina.
  • Stocks estimate (2015/16 carry-out) curtailed on lower forecasts for Argentina, the US and India but still set to exceed last season’s record.

INDICATORS

Events

Expert workshop on market indicators
12 Nov 2015 to 13 Nov 2015
Washington D.C., United States
Eighth session of the Global Food Market Information Group
19 Oct 2015 to 20 Oct 2015
Milan, Italy
Training Workshop on Production of Market Prices of Agricultural Commodities
05 Oct 2015 to 08 Oct 2015
Kaduna State, Nigeria

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