01 Feb 2018
The current edition of the AMIS Market Monitor still sees ample global supplies of all four AMIS crops in 2017/18. Despite some firmer export quotations [...]
DG WTO Roberto Azevêdo (right) with the AMIS Chair Jésus Silveyra (left). © WTO
DG WTO Roberto Azevêdo (right) with the AMIS Chair Jésus Silveyra (left). © WTO
17 Nov 2017
Speaking earier this week at the Global Food Market Information Group, the Director-General of the World Trade Organization (WTO) Roberto Azevêdo stressed that AMIS promotes [...]
© NWS/NCEP Climate Prediction Center
© NWS/NCEP Climate Prediction Center
03 Nov 2017
Although conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are currently neutral, a La Niña watch has been declared, with the probability of La Niña conditions in the [...]
© www.globalgrainevents.com
© www.globalgrainevents.com
26 Oct 2017
Several AMIS country representatives and Secretariat members will speak at Global Grain Geneva, an annual event reaching out to the global grains and oilseeds trading [...]

last release: Feb 2018

Market Monitor

 

From previous forecast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

The overall trends in global markets for the four AMIS crops still point to ample supplies in 2017/18, supported by above-average to record crops in most countries and large ending stocks. Consequently, price volatility in international markets remained subdued, although tightening supplies of high-quality wheat and brisker world demand for rice in recent months resulted in firmer export quotations.

2016/17

2017/18 

estimate

7 Dec

1 Feb

Production

761.3

754.8

757.6

Supply

985.3

999.3

1005.7

Utilization

732.4

739.9

733.9

Trade

177.0

175.0

174.5

Ending Stocks

248.1

257.2

269.8

in million tonnes

  • Wheat 2017 production lifted, now closer to the 2016 record, with increases in Canada and the Russian Federation more than offsetting cuts in several countries, in particular Australia.
  • Utilization in 2017/18 lowered, largely on downward revisions in the Russian Federation.
  • Trade in 2017/18 (July/June) lowered slightly, now representing a small contraction from 2016/17.
  • Stocks (ending in 2018) up sharply from the previous forecast, reflecting upward revisions in the EU and the Russian Federation.

2016/17

2017/18 

estimate

7 Dec

1 Feb

Production

1,040.4

1,075.3 

1,083.0 

Supply

1,270.9

1,312.7 

1,318.7 

Utilization

1,035.5 

1,061.8 

1,065.9 

Trade

139.8 

143.0 

143.0 

Ending Stocks

235.7

245.2 

248.2 

in million tonnes

  • Maize 2017 production raised significantly on upward revisions in China, the EU and Mexico.
  • Utilization in 2017/18 scaled up, supported by higher-than-earlier anticipated feed and industrial use in the EU and Mexico.
  • Trade in 2017/18 (July/June) to expand by 3.5 percent, mostly on stronger import demand by Egypt and several countries in Asia.
  • Stocks (ending in 2018) increased, with larger inventories in Brazil and China more than offsetting drawdowns in Mexico and Ukraine.

2016/17

2017/18 

estimate

7 Dec

1 Feb

Production

500.7

500.8 

501.9 

Supply

667.8 

669.9 

670.3 

Utilization

497.7 

503.0 

503.7 

Trade

47.0 

46.2 

46.0 

Ending Stocks

168.4 

170.2 

170.0

in million tonnes

  • Rice 2017 production raised, mostly due to an upward revision in China, now pointing to a modest (0.2 percent) increase from last year.
  • Utilization in 2017/18 upgraded a little on higher expected food consumption in Bangladesh and China.
  • Trade in 2018 down 2 percent from the revised estimate for 2017; the forecast for 2018 remains nearly unchanged since December with lower sales by India, the US and Thailand more than outweighing higher exports by Myanmar.
  • Stocks (ending in 2018) to exceed the previous year’s level, largely on higher anticipated inventories in China.

2016/17

2017/18 

estimate

7 Dec

1 Feb

Production

348.9 

345.9 

346.3 

Supply

393.2 

397.0 

398.0 

Utilization

340.7 

350.8 

352.4 

Trade

149.1 

153.3 

153.0 

Ending Stocks

51.6 

45.9 

47.0 

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2017/18 production raised marginally, with higher forecasts for Brazil more than offsetting downward revisions in Argentina and the US.
  • Utilization in 2017/18 lifted slightly on higher-than-earlier projected increases in Brazil, China and the US; this season’s growth in global consumption still set to remain below average.
  • Trade forecast for 2017/18 essentially unchanged; on the export side, lower-than-earlier anticipated US shipments would be compensated by higher deliveries by Brazil.
  • Stocks (2017/18 carry-out) scaled up, mainly reflecting upward revisions in Brazil and the US; compared to last season’s all-time high, global inventories are set to decline.

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