19 Jul 2022
The inability of Ukraine to export from its Black Sea ports has sharply reduced grain shipments from one of the breadbaskets of the world, sending [...]
19 Jul 2022
Policies have an important bearing on global food markets. A new online resource will help you keep abreast of latest policy developments in the principal [...]
07 Jul 2022
The wheat harvest is underway in the northern hemisphere, with hot and dry conditions impeding winter wheat yields in several major producing regions, which further [...]
© UNICEF Ethiopia /2017/Ayene
© UNICEF Ethiopia /2017/Ayene
22 Jun 2022
Global food security has been suffering in many parts of the world due to several manmade conflicts, climate shocks, COVID-19 and the rising cost of [...]

last release: July 2022

Markets at a glance

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

The wheat harvest is underway in the northern hemisphere, with hot and dry conditions impeding winter wheat yields in several major producing regions. While maize production prospects improved this month, global maize output is also forecast to fall below last year's level. Against this background, and with exports from Ukraine still largely constrained, international wheat and maize markets are expected to stay tight. This means prices will remain volatile and continue to be highly sensitive to daily news on crop development, weather conditions and policy changes. By contrast, global rice production prospects appear strong despite high input prices while soybean output could hit a new record.

2021/22

2022/23

estimate

2 Jun

7 Jul

Production

778.3

770.8

770.3

Supply

1070.3

1067.4

1069.9

Utilization

773.2

768.6

770.6

Trade

193.2

188.9

190.6

Ending Stocks

299.6

297.8

299.3

in million tonnes

  • Wheat production forecast for 2022 trimmed m/m with lower production prospects in the EU and, to a lesser extent, Argentina and Iraq outweighing upward revisions for Australia, Canada, and Russia.
  • Utilization in 2022/23 raised m/m but still expected to decline from the 2021/22 estimated level given a likely contraction in demand for both feed and industrial use.
  • Trade 2022/23 (July/June) forecast lifted mostly on greater demand from Asia, and larger shipments expected from Australia and Russia, but still pointing to a slight contraction from 2021/22.
  • Stocks (ending in 2023) adjusted upwards m/m and forecast to remain near opening levels as anticipated build-ups in Canada, China, Russia, and Ukraine counter drawdowns in Australia, the EU, India, and Morocco.

2021/22

2022/23

estimate

2 Jun

7 Jul

Production

1210.0

1187.8

1195.3

Supply

1496.7

1491.5

1503.2

Utilization

1197.1

1189.7

1193.1

Trade

182.8

174.2

177.3

Ending Stocks

307.9

300.3

308.0

in million tonnes

  • Maize 2022 production forecast raised on improved prospects in China, India, Russia, and Ukraine, but still 1.2 percent lower than last year's output.
  • Utilization in 2022/23 lifted m/m by stronger than anticipated feed demand, but still set to decrease by 0.3 percent from 2021/22.
  • Trade in 2022/23 (July/June) forecast to contract from the 2021/22 estimated volume by 3.0 percent despite an upward revision this month largely driven by higher than expected demand by the EU, and larger shipments from Brazil.
  • Stocks (ending in 2023) now forecast to remain near opening levels following an upward revision this month mostly in China, stemming from production revisions, but also Ukraine and the US.

2021/22

2022/23

estimate

2 Jun

7 Jul

Production

522.5

519.5

520.5

Supply

714.2

711.8

713.2

Utilization

522.0

522.0

523.1

Trade

53.4

53.9

54.2

Ending Stocks

192.7

191.6

191.7

in million tonnes

  • Rice production in 2022 raised, mostly reflecting upward revisions to Indian production in 2021 and 2022. By contrast, 2022 prospects were downgraded namely for Viet Nam.
  • Utilization in 2022/23 forecast to exceed its year-earlier record by 1.1 million tonnes, with global per caput food use seen largely steady y/y and still above pre-pandemic levels.
  • Trade in 2022 and 2023 marginally changed m/m, with India predicted to remain the world's largest exporter in both years, accounting for nearly 40 percent of all volumes shipped across the globe.
  • Stocks (2022/23 carry-out) still seen at their second highest on record, as slight downward adjustments to carry-outs in Cambodia and Viet Nam are compensated by an upgrade to Indian reserves.

2021/22

2022/23

estimate

2 Jun

7 Jul

Production

350.3

390.4

387.5

Supply

401.1

430.2

426.5

Utilization

367.3

377.8

377.3

Trade

155.0

166.7

166.8

Ending Stocks

39.0

51.0

48.3

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2022/23 production lowered marginally m/m with a downward revision in the US more than offsetting a higher projection for Brazil, while global output is still forecast to rebound sharply y/y to a record high.
  • Utilization in 2022/23 trimmed on lower forecasts for the US and China, entailing a 2.7 percent y/y recovery following an exceptional contraction in 2021/22.
  • Trade in 2022/23 (Oct/Sep) left unchanged m/m, with reduced export prospects from the US compensated by higher shipments from Brazil.
  • Stocks (2022/23 carry-out) scaled down moderately, mainly reflecting reductions in the US. Although global ending stocks are seen rebounding by more than 20 percent y/y, the stocks-to-use ratio would remain below the 5-year average.

INDICATORS

Events

COUNTRY DATA