05 May 2016
This month's edition of the Monitor analyses the recent upward trend of international prices of the AMIS crops. Production uncertainty, largely driven by unsettling weather [...]
IRRI
IRRI
02 May 2016
Good information on expected yields is of paramount importance for sound policy planning. Against this background, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [...]
Jialiang Gao, www.peace-on-earth.org
Jialiang Gao, www.peace-on-earth.org
19 Apr 2016
El Niño continues to decline from its peak strength in late 2015, with neutral conditions expected by June. However, it has already affected 60 million [...]
Photo: USDA
Photo: USDA
15 Apr 2016
In a statement during the OECD Meeting of Agriculture Ministers last week, the United States Secretary of Agriculture, Tom Vilsack, highlighted the importance of improved [...]

last release: May 2016

Market Monitor

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

Roundup

Production uncertainty, coupled with strong trade activity underpinned international prices of AMIS crops, in particular of soybeans and maize. For soybeans, prospects for the remainder of the 2015/16 season have deteriorated since April, mostly because of unfavourable weather conditions in South America. For wheat, maize and rice, market fundamentals continue to point to a comfortable outlook in 2016/17.

2015/16

2016/17 forecast

estimate

7 Apr

5 May

Production

733

713

717

Supply

933

916

920

Utilization

723

723

724

Trade

153

153

154

Ending Stocks

203

194

195

in million tonnes

  • Wheat production forecast for 2016 increased on improved prospects in the EU, Russian Federation and Ukraine.
  • Utilization in 2016/17 to rise only marginally, hampered by a projected 1.8 percent contraction in feed use. 
  • Trade in 2016/17 (July/June) to expand marginally on higher import requirements by a few countries, especially Morocco.
  • Stocks (ending in 2017) to decline by less than it was forecast last month on expectation of larger inventories in the Russian Federation and Ukraine. 

2015/16

2016/17 forecast

estimate

7 Apr

5 May

Production

1003

1014

1015

Supply

1220

1232

1233

Utilization

1002

1024

1026

Trade

131

129

130

Ending Stocks

218

205

207

in million tonnes

  • Maize production to increase by 1.2 percent in 2016 despite a falling production in southern Africa.
  • Utilization in 2016/17 projected to expand by 2.4 percent, driven by relatively strong growth in feed and industrial use.
  • Trade in 2016/17 (July/June) to drop slightly, pressured by lower import demand in the EU.
  • Stocks (ending in 2017) heading for a 5.0 percent decline, led by large projected drawdowns in China and Brazil. 

2015/16

2016/17 forecast

estimate

7 Apr

5 May

Production

490

495

495

Supply

664

664

664

Utilization

496

503

503

Trade

44.9

44.1

44.0

Ending Stocks

169

164

164

in million tonnes

  • Rice production forecast for 2016 unchanged, still predicting a modest 1 percent recovery from the reduced output in 2015.
  • Utilization anticipated to increase by 1.5 percent and to surpass production for the second consecutive season.
  • Trade prospects for 2017 lowered slightly, suggesting another y/y contraction.
  • Stocks in 2017 to fall by 3 percent, with much of the decline concentrated in the major exporting countries.

2015/16

2016/17 forecast

estimate

7 Apr

5 May

Production

320

322

317

Supply

352

367

362

Utilization

302

318

317

Trade

127

131

132

Ending Stocks

45

48

45

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2015/16 production curtailed by 4.9 million tonnes as adverse weather conditions hamper harvests in South America, especially in Argentina.
  • Utilization lowered marginally from last month, not altering the anticipated y/y expansion of 5 percent.
  • Trade forecast for 2015/16 raised slightly on stronger import demand by China.
  • Stocks (2015/16 carry-out) lowered by 3.3 million tonnes as South American countries are expected to release inventories to meet their export commitments.

INDICATORS

Events

Ninth session of the Global Food Market Information Group
22 Jun 2016 to 23 Jun 2016
Rome, Italy
Training workshop: AMIS mobile tool for market price data collection
04 Apr 2016 to 07 Apr 2016
Kaduna State, Nigeria
Fifth session of the Rapid Response Forum
10 Mar 2016
Washington, DC, United States

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