02 Dec 2021
The year 2021 has not been easy for food markets given an abundance of uncertainties, from production to distribution and consumption. Prices kept climbing and [...]
(c) B. Das/CIMMYT
(c) B. Das/CIMMYT
05 Nov 2021
Fertilizer prices have increased sharply over the past twelve months, putting further upward pressure on food prices. The price spike has been dramatic for all [...]
(c) CIMMYT
(c) CIMMYT
12 Oct 2021
Poor weather conditions hit wheat crops particularly hard this season in several key producing countries. Not surprisingly, therefore, global wheat inventories could fall below opening [...]
16 Sep 2021
Member organizations of the AMIS Secretariat discussed the future of AMIS and the initiative's strategic direction at yesterday's meeting of the AMIS Secretariat Steering Committee. [...]

last release: December 2021

Market Monitor

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

The year 2021 has not been easy for food markets given an abundance of uncertainties, from production to distribution and consumption. Prices kept climbing and even reached record highs for some crops, turning food inflation into a major concern, even in developed countries. Overall, markets continued to show their resilience, with global supplies remaining adequate and logistical bottlenecks proving short-lived. As pressures on global food security keep mounting, markets will hopefully enter more stable waters in the coming year in order to ensure adequate access to food for the most vulnerable.

2020/21

2021/22

estimate

4 Nov

2 Dec

Production

776.5

770.4

769.6

Supply

1056.2

1059.0

1059.1

Utilization

761.8

778.8

777.0

Trade

189.1

192.3

193.3

Ending Stocks

289.5

282.1

284.7

in million tonnes

  • Wheat 2021 production trimmed further, mostly on lower estimates for Brazil and the UK, resulting in global production falling by nearly 1 percent from last year’s record.
  • Utilization in 2021/22 lowered on weaker feed use expectations, especially in the EU, but still rising by 2.0 percent from the previous season.
  • Trade in 2021/22 (July/June) to expand by 2.2 percent from the 2020/21 level, driven by robust demand, especially from the Near East to compensate for reduced harvests.
  • Stocks forecast (ending 2022) scaled up m/m but still expected to fall 1.7 percent below opening levels, with most of the drawdown concentrated among major exporters.

2020/21

2021/22

estimate

4 Nov

2 Dec

Production

1157.8

1197.6

1199.7

Supply

1456.6

1482.8

1485.5

Utilization

1170.3

1199.9

1201.0

Trade

190.6

187.0

187.2

Ending Stocks

285.7

291.7

292.8

in million tonnes

  • Maize production in 2021 raised on higher-than-earlier projected outputs in Ukraine and the US; global production is currently forecast to surpass last year’s level by 3.6 percent, a new record.
  • Utilization forecast for 2021/22 lifted m/m, largely on a faster rise in ethanol production in the US, now resulting in a 2.6 percent growth in world total use of maize.
  • Trade in 2021/22 (July/June) to contract from the 2020/21 record by 1.8 percent, underpinned by weaker demand expected from China and Viet Nam.
  • Stocks forecast (ending in 2022) scaled up and set to surpass opening levels by 2.5 percent, mostly reflecting higher inventories in China and a partial recovery in the US.

2020/21

2021/22

estimate

4 Nov

2 Dec

Production

513.7

518.2

518.4

Supply

699.5

705.3

705.4

Utilization

510.7

518.8

518.9

Trade

49.0

51.3

51.4

Ending Stocks

187.0

187.6

187.7

in million tonnes

  • Rice production in 2021 barely changed m/m, as upward revisions namely for Pakistan and the US compensate for less buoyant output prospects for Thailand and Bangladesh.
  • Utilization in 2021/22 still seen reaching a fresh peak, with global per caput food intake envisaged to expand by 0.6 percent in 2021/22.
  • Trade in 2022 (January-December) forecast to grow for the third successive year underpinned by a rebound in exports by Thailand, Brazil, Myanmar and Pakistan, while Indian shipments could edge down and those of Viet Nam continue to fall.
  • Stocks (2021/22 carry-out) still seen at historical highs, sustained by a fourth successive season of accumulations in the major rice exporters.

2020/21

2021/22

estimate

4 Nov

2 Dec

Production

365.5

382.3

383.3

Supply

420.8

432.0

432.8

Utilization

368.9

380.5

379.8

Trade

161.1

171.3

169.5

Ending Stocks

49.6

52.6

53.7

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2021/22 production forecast raised marginally, with upward revisions for Brazil and India more than offsetting a lower forecast for the US.
  • Utilization in 2021/22 trimmed on expectations of lower domestic crush in China, while global consumption is still forecast to grow by about 3 percent from the previous season.
  • Trade forecast for 2021/22 (Oct/Sep) scaled down, mainly reflecting smaller import expectations by China.
  • Stocks (2021/22 carry-out) lifted further, tied to higher forecasts for Brazil and the US, while global inventories could still fall below the average level.

INDICATORS

COUNTRY DATA