DG WTO Roberto Azevêdo (right) with the AMIS Chair Jésus Silveyra (left). © WTO
DG WTO Roberto Azevêdo (right) with the AMIS Chair Jésus Silveyra (left). © WTO
17 Nov 2017
Speaking earier this week at the Global Food Market Information Group, the Director-General of the World Trade Organization (WTO) Roberto Azevêdo stressed that AMIS promotes [...]
© Nasa
© Nasa
03 Nov 2017
Although conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are currently neutral, a La Niña watch has been declared, with the probability of La Niña conditions in the [...]
02 Nov 2017
The 2017/18 market outlook for AMIS crops remains positive, according to the latest edition of the AMIS Market Monitor released today. Even for crops where production is [...]
© www.globalgrainevents.com
© www.globalgrainevents.com
26 Oct 2017
Several AMIS country representatives and Secretariat members will speak at Global Grain Geneva, an annual event reaching out to the global grains and oilseeds trading [...]

last release: Nov 2017

Market Monitor

 

From previous month f'cast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

Wheat, maize, rice and soybeans are heading for a comfortable market situation in 2017/18. Even for crops where production is forecast to fall below last year’s level, supplies are expected to remain sufficient, which may explain some of the downward pressure on prices witnessed in recent weeks. For major cereals, the market focus will soon be shifting to planting and growing conditions in the new season. In the case of soybeans, planting progress and weather developments in the southern hemisphere will likely influence prices in the coming weeks.

2016/17

2017/18 forecast

estimate

5 Oct

2 Nov

Production

760.2 

750.1 

752.8

Supply

982.6 

996.4

998.0

Utilization

732.8 

734.3 

738.2 

Trade

177.4 

174.7 

175.2 

Ending Stocks

245.2 

261.2 

258.2 

in million tonnes

  • Wheat production forecast for 2017 raised further this month, following upward revisions for the Russian Federation and Ukraine, but still below last year’s record.
  • Utilization in 2017/18 to increase more than was anticipated in October, largely due to higher feed use expectations.
  • Trade in 2017/18 (July/June) is heading for a lesser contraction from 2016/17 on stronger import demand from Mexico and Nigeria.
  • Stocks (ending in 2018) still to rise to a record level globally despite this month’s lowering of inventories in several countries.

2016/17

2017/18 forecast

estimate

5 Oct

2 Nov

Production

1,040.7

1,064.5 

1,063.6 

Supply

1,266.3

1,300.1 

1,299.8 

Utilization

1,034.6 

1,055.2 

1,056.1 

Trade

139.8 

143.0 

143.9 

Ending Stocks

236.2 

236.6 

236.7 

in million tonnes

  • Maize production in 2017 to reach an all-time high, supported by bumper crops in South America and southern Africa.
  • Utilization in 2017/18 raised on expectation of slightly higher feed use, especially in Thailand and the US.
  • Trade in 2017/18 (July/June) to hit a new high, up 3 percent from the previous season’s record, sustained by stronger demand from the EU, Mexico and several Asian countries.
  • Stocks (ending in 2018) to remain steady with build-ups in South America and Africa offsetting drawdowns in Asia and Europe.

2016/17

2017/18 forecast

estimate

5 Oct

2 Nov

Production

501.0

500.7 

500.8 

Supply

667.4 

669.3 

669.3 

Utilization

497.8 

502.9 

503.2 

Trade

45.0 

45.2 

45.4 

Ending Stocks

168.5 

169.5 

169.2 

in million tonnes

  • Rice production forecast fractionally changed, as an upward adjustment for Pakistan is largely outweighed by reductions for the Republic of Korea and Japan.
  • Utilization in 2017/18 still forecast to grow by 1.1 percent from last season, sustaining a marginal increase in global per capita food use to 53.8 kilos.
  • Trade in 2018 still pointing to a modest expansion, with import growth expected to concentrate in Asia.
  • Stocks (ending in 2018) downgraded somewhat, mostly on lower expected carryovers in the Republic of Korea.

2016/17

2017/18 forecast

estimate

5 Oct

2 Nov

Production

348.7 

346.4 

346.3 

Supply

393.1 

399.1 

397.6 

Utilization

340.4 

350.4 

348.8 

Trade

147.6 

151.9 

152.5 

Ending Stocks

51.3 

48.7 

49.1 

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2017/18 global production forecast virtually unchanged, with upward adjustments in Canada, China and the EU offsetting downward revisions for Brazil and India.
  • Utilization in 2017/18 adjusted marginally downwards, confirming a growth rate well below the 5-year average.
  • Trade in 2017/18 revised slightly upwards, with higher export forecasts for Canada matched by larger expected purchases in Asia, particularly China.
  • Stocks (2017/18 carry-out) raised slightly, with downward revisions in Brazil and the US more than offset by higher forecasts for China and Argentina.

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