Typical impacts of La Niña on the world during Northern Hemisphere winter. www.climate.gov
Typical impacts of La Niña on the world during Northern Hemisphere winter. www.climate.gov
07 May 2018
La Niña conditions are still present, though they are weak and in transition to a neutral state. There is a 70 percent chance that the neutral [...]
02 May 2018
The latest edition of the AMIS Market Monitor predicts a good season ahead in 2018/19. The first AMIS forecasts point to ample supplies in wheat, [...]
10 Apr 2018
In an effort to continuously improve activities and outputs, the AMIS Secretariat commissioned two independent evaluations: One looking at the interplay between Secretariat member organizations [...]
Delegates at the 2018 meeting of the AMIS Rapid Response Forum
Delegates at the 2018 meeting of the AMIS Rapid Response Forum
15 Mar 2018
Canada was unanimously elected as the new AMIS Chair. The chairmanship will be passed over from Argentina at the next meeting of the Global Food Market [...]

last release: May 2018

Market Monitor

 

From previous forecast

From previous season

Wheat

n/a

Maize

n/a

Rice

n/a

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

The first AMIS forecasts for wheat, maize and rice markets in 2018/19 point to a good season ahead, with world supplies remaining ample despite rising demand. Only the maize market may experience some tightening, as global production heads towards a decline because of lower plantings and unfavourable weather in some regions. For soybeans, the latest indications for the current season (2017/18) suggest lower production and ending stocks.

2017/18

2018/19

estimate

f'cast 3 May

Production

757.9

746.6

Supply

1015.5

1023.3

Utilization

737.7

743.3

Trade

173.6

174.1

Ending Stocks

276.7

279.0

in million tonnes

  • Wheat production in 2018 to drop by 1.5 percent from last year’s near-record level. The Russian Federation accounts for the largest proportion of this y/y decline.
  • Utilization to increase by 0.8 percent in 2018/19 with food consumption keeping pace with the overall population growth but feed use contracting.
  • Trade in 2018/19 (July/June) steady at the current season’s high level, supported by strong import demand and continued large export availabilities, in particular from the Russian Federation.
  • Stocks (ending in 2019) to reach a new record, with higher inventories in China more than offsetting decreases in the EU and the US.

2017/18

2018/19

estimate

f'cast 3 May

Production

1087.8

1047.3

Supply

1330.6

1301.5

Utilization

1067.2

1072.4

Trade

145.5

143.6

Ending Stocks

254.2

226.9

in million tonnes

  • Maize production in 2018 could fall by 3.7 percent from the 2017 record, with reduced plantings curbing output especially in the US while lower crop prospects are also projected for Argentina, Brazil, the EU and South Africa.
  • Utilization in 2018/19 expected to exceed the current season’s estimated record level, mostly reflecting continued robust demand prospects from the animal feed sector.
  • Trade in 2018/19 (July/June) to contract slightly with the biggest decline in imports projected for China while smaller exports are anticipated from Argentina and the Russian Federation.  
  • Stocks (ending in 2019) falling by 10.7 percent from their record-high opening level, with most of the decrease in China and in South America.

2017/18

2018/19

estimate

f'cast 3 May

Production

503.9

510.6

Supply

673.0

681.5

Utilization

503.9

509.1

Trade

47.6

47.2

Ending Stocks

170.9

172.9

in million tonnes

  • Rice production in 2018 is tentatively forecast to grow by 1.3 percent to an all-time high, as larger crops mainly in Bangladesh, India and Viet Nam outweigh a cut in China.
  • Utilization in 2018/19 forecast to expand by 1 percent, with food use keeping pace with population growth.
  • Trade in calendar 2018 upgraded slightly, with higher export forecasts for Cambodia and India more than compensating for cuts in the US.
  • Stocks (ending in 2019) seen rising for the third successive season, as continued buildups in China and India outweigh cuts, namely, in Brazil and Thailand.

2016/17

2017/18 

estimate

5 Apr

3 May

Production

347.8

336.8

334.3

Supply

393.1

388.2

385.1

Utilization

340.3

349.1

347.6

Trade

149.2

154.0

152.2

Ending Stocks

51.3

42.0

40.8

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2017/18 production lowered, with a further downward correction for Argentina only partially offset by a higher crop estimate for Brazil.
  • Utilization trimmed, mainly reflecting an additional reduction in Argentina’s crush forecast. Global utilization in 2017/18 now set to grow at a below-average rate of 2.1 percent.
  • Trade in 2017/18 down compared to last month, driven by reduced export forecasts for Argentina and lower than earlier anticipated import growth in parts of Asia, including China.
  • Stocks (2017/18 carry-out) revised downward on lower forecasts for a number of countries, notably China and Argentina. Global inventories this season are now poised to drop by one-fifth. 

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