06 Sep 2018
The latest edition of the AMIS Market Monitor announces several adjustments to production forecasts of the AMIS crops. Expected production of wheat is down significantly [...]
NOAA Climate.gov
NOAA Climate.gov
06 Sep 2018
Current El Niño Southern Oscillation conditions are neutral. Models indicate that a weak to moderate strength El Niño may develop during the northern hemisphere 2018 [...]
(c) Wikipedia.org
(c) Wikipedia.org
06 Sep 2018
As the 2017/18 season gradually unfolds, it is becoming increasingly clear that agricultural markets are in rougher shape than in previous years. Several factors are [...]
(c) imago stock&people
(c) imago stock&people
02 Aug 2018
Wheat harvests are wrapping up amid excessive hot and dry weather in many regions, which has sharply reduced production forecasts. These developments confirm earlier concerns [...]

last release: September 2018

Market Monitor

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

Weather has been the primary driver of adjustments to production forecasts since the previous report in July. Prolonged heat and dry conditions in several regions have taken a heavy toll on wheat crops, especially in northern parts of Europe and the Russian Federation. Conversely, production forecasts for maize have been scaled up, largely thanks to exceptional yield expectations in the US.  Also, the outlook for soybeans has improved, mostly on favourable growing conditions in the US and expectations of further gains in area planted in Brazil. Prospects for rice continue to point to a record 2018 crop. With production forecasts now becoming firmer, markets will be focusing more on issues affecting trade flows and their implication on international prices.

2017/18

2018/19 forecast

estimate

5 Jul

6 Sep

Production

756.7

736.1

721.8

Supply

1,013.3

1,009.7

995.4

Utilization

737.3

741.1

740.9

Trade

176.8

175.0

173.6

Ending Stocks

273.6

264.2

252.3

in million tonnes

  • Wheat production forecast for 2018 revised down sharply mostly on prolonged dry and hot weather conditions adversely affecting yields, particularly in the northern countries of the EU and in the Russian Federation.
  • Utilization in 2018/19 reduced with feed use adjusted down; but total use still forecast to grow, supported by increased food consumption.
  • Trade in 2018/19 (July/June) now 1.8 percent below the 2017/18 record with reduced sales from the EU, the Russian Federation and Ukraine to be partially offset by higher shipments from the US.
  • Stocks (ending in 2019) to fall more than anticipated earlier on deteriorating production prospects, especially among the major exporters.

2017/18

2018/19 forecast

estimate

5 Jul

6 Sep

Production

1,092.2

1,044.7

1,065.5

Supply

1,393.9

1,353.9

1,374.7

Utilization

1,075.3

1,091.5

1,105.6

Trade

154.2

148.7

152.5

Ending Stocks

309.2

260.3

267.1

in million tonnes

  • Maize production forecast for 2018 raised, particularly in the US on expectation of very good yields.
  • Utilization in 2018/19 scaled up, supported by brisker demand for feed and industrial use than projected earlier, especially in China and the US.
  • Trade forecast for 2018/19 (July/June) lifted, reflecting prospects for higher imports by several Asian countries.
  • Stocks (ending in 2019) raised on upward revisions in Brazil, Mexico and the US, but still well below their opening levels.

2017/18

2018/19 forecast

estimate

5 Jul

6 Sep

Production

505.0 

511.4

511.8

Supply

672.8

682.5

682.2

Utilization

504.1

509.5

509.6

Trade

47.8

47.5

47.3

Ending Stocks

170.4

173.7

173.4

in million tonnes

  • Rice production in 2018 raised fractionally, mainly on improved prospects for Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, the United States and Viet Nam, which outweighed a reduction for Egypt.
  • Utilization in 2018/19 envisaged to expand by 1.1 percent, on greater food use.
  • Trade in 2019 seen 1.1 percent below the 2018 level, but still the third highest volume on record, as import cuts in Asia are mostly compensated by stronger African demand.
  • Stocks (ending in 2019) downscaled marginally, as downward corrections for China, Egypt, Japan and the Philippines are partly offset by higher forecasts for Indonesia, in particular.

2017/18

2018/19 forecast

estimate

5 Jul

6 Sep

Production

340.3

359.6

366.8

Supply

392.9

399.1

406.7

Utilization

353.3

357.9

359.9

Trade

152.0

156.3

154.9

Ending Stocks

39.9

39.2

47.4

in million tonnes

  • Soybean production forecast for 2018/19 raised substantially on above-average crop conditions in the US and a promising season in Brazil.
  • Utilization in 2018/19 also revised upward, with higher-than-earlier-anticipated crush in the US, the EU, Brazil and Argentina offsetting weak consumption growth in China.
  • Trade forecast for 2018/19 trimmed, largely on downward adjustments to imports by China and reduced shipments from the US, in part due to the trade dispute between the two countries.   
  • Stocks (2018/19 carry-out) forecast raised sharply (now up 19 percent y/y) on further upward revisions for the US, mirroring the country’s prospective bumper crop and limited export opportunities.

INDICATORS

Events

COUNTRY DATA