last release: 3 November 2022
Markets at a glance
From previous month forecast |
From previous season |
|
|---|---|---|
Wheat |
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Maize |
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Rice |
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Soybeans |
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Easing | Neutral | Tightening |
Concerns are mounting regarding the extension of the United Nations Black Sea Grain Initiative beyond the 18 November deadline, especially after Russia's recent - albeit temporary - withdrawal from the agreement. Through this initiative, Ukraine has been able to ship over 9 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds via its Black Sea ports. While the volume of exports remains below year-ago levels, importers benefitted from larger supplies, especially those who depend on Ukraine's agricultural products, while consumers worldwide have gained through lower market prices. The possible termination of the deal now threatens to re-ignite market prices and further exacerbate global food security concerns.
2021/22 | 2022/23 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
estimate | 6 Oct | 3 Nov | |
Production | 779.3 | 787.2 | 783.8 |
Supply | 1070.7 | 1080.6 | 1077.5 |
Utilization | 773.0 | 774.2 | 775.0 |
Trade | 195.7 | 191.8 | 193.7 |
Ending Stocks | 293.7 | 302.7 | 299.6 |
in million tonnes | |||
- Wheat 2022 production forecast trimmed m/m, stemming from a downward revision in the US, but still 0.6 percent above the 2021 level and marking a record high.
- Utilization in 2022/23 nearly unchanged this month and set to marginally rise above the 2021/22 level with growth in food consumption and other uses offsetting a foreseen decline in feed use of wheat.
- Trade 2022/23 (July/June) forecast raised, mostly reflecting higher export prospects for Ukraine, but still pointing to a 1.0 percent decline from the 2021/22 level.
- Stocks (ending in 2023) revised down m/m largely in Ukraine based on a higher export forecast, as well as in India and the US. Global stocks still forecast to rise by 2.0 percent above opening levels.
2021/22 | 2022/23 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
estimate | 6 Oct | 3 Nov | |
Production | 1212.0 | 1167.7 | 1167.5 |
Supply | 1497.4 | 1478.6 | 1473.0 |
Utilization | 1199.9 | 1187.6 | 1185.6 |
Trade | 181.4 | 179.9 | 180.2 |
Ending Stocks | 305.5 | 294.3 | 288.6 |
in million tonnes | |||
- Maize 2022 production nearly unchanged and still forecast to fall by 3.7 percent below last year's output, owing to reduced harvests in the EU, Ukraine, and the US.
- Utilization in 2022/23 trimmed m/m on lower industrial use, largely in China and the US, and seen falling by 1.2 percent below the 2021/22 level.
- Trade in 2022/23 (July/June) still forecast marginally below the 2021/22 level and unchanged this month as higher export prospects for Ukraine balanced a downgrade for the US, as well as the EU and Russia.
- Stocks (ending in 2023) forecast to fall 5.5 percent below opening levels with a further downward revision this month, mostly in Ukraine, reflecting higher exports, and the US as a result of further downgraded production.
2021/22 | 2022/23 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
estimate | 6 Oct | 3 Nov | |
Production | 525.1 | 512.8 | 512.6 |
Supply | 718.8 | 709.4 | 709.5 |
Utilization | 522.0 | 518.6 | 518.3 |
Trade | 53.8 | 53.0 | 52.9 |
Ending Stocks | 196.9 | 193.1 | 193.4 |
in million tonnes | |||
- Rice production in 2022 virtually unchanged m/m, as an upward revision for Indonesia, and to a lesser extent Peru, largely compensates for reduced expectations mostly for Nigeria and Viet Nam.
- Utilization in 2022/23 to subside by 0.7 percent y/y, but robust food demand in Asia and Africa to keep global per capita intake largely unchanged y/y.
- Trade in 2023 still expected to fall 1.6 percent below the 2022 level, largely on account of reduced shipments by India, while exports are seen up namely in Thailand and Viet Nam.
- Stocks (2022/23 carry-out) little changed m/m, with a forecast 1.8 percent decline from their record opening levels placing them at their third largest on record.
2021/22 | 2022/23 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
estimate | 6 Oct | 3 Nov | |
Production | 355.2 | 390.4 | 392.4 |
Supply | 405.7 | 430.4 | 433.4 |
Utilization | 368.4 | 378.6 | 380.6 |
Trade | 152.9 | 166.6 | 167.1 |
Ending Stocks | 40.9 | 47.7 | 48.2 |
in million tonnes | |||
- Soybean 2022/23 production lifted marginally m/m, with a higher forecast for Brazil more than offsetting a downward revision for the US, thus confirming the tentative outlook of a record global output.
- Utilization in 2022/23 also raised somewhat on expectations of greater crushing in Brazil and China, due to higher domestic supplies and rising feed demand, respectively.
- Trade in 2022/23 (Oct/Sep) virtually unchanged, as expected lower shipments from the US were compensated by higher exports from Brazil.
- Stocks (2022/23 carry-out) scaled up slightly mainly tied to higher global production prospects, although world stocks-to-use ratio would remain below the average level of recent years.
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