AMIS
AMIS
According to the latest edition of the AMIS Market Monitor, the supply/demand outlook for the four AMIS crops remains comfortable. Despite unfavourable weather in some regions during [...]
Photo: Marco Illuminati/OECD
Photo: Marco Illuminati/OECD
On the occasion of the launch of this year’s edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook, the heads of both contributing organizations highlighted the important role [...]
Last night, the latest EU Sentinel satellite was sent up to space from French Guiana. Sentinel-2A will improve global agricultural monitoring by providing global coverage at [...]
Earlier this week, the AMIS Secretariat was joined by two new participants of the AMIS Exchange Programme. Mr. Wang Dongjie from the Chinese Academy of Agricultural [...]

last release: July 2015

Market Monitor

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

n/a

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

Market overview

In spite of unfavourable weather conditions in some regions and continuing concerns about El Niño, which increased market volatility in June, the general supply/demand outlook for the four AMIS crops remains comfortable. The first 2015/16 forecast for soybeans points to a small reduction in world production compared to the 2014/15 record and to a further rise in ending stock levels.

2014/15

2015/16 forecast

estimate

4 Jun

9 Jul

Production

731

723

723

Supply

917

922

921

Utilization

716

716

721

Trade

152

150

151

Ending Stocks

198

201

198

in million tonnes

  • Wheat production in 2015 falling below the record in 2014, with most of the reduction in the EU, India and Russia.
  • Utilization in 2015/16 raised by almost 5 million tonnes, driven by stronger than previously expected growth in Asia.
  • Trade in 2015/16 (July/June) adjusted upward on expectation of larger import demand, most notably by Brazil and the Philippines.
  • Stocks (ending in 2016) lowered mostly on reduced inventories in Australia, the EU, India, Indonesia and Pakistan.

2014/15

2015/16 forecast

estimate

4 Jun

9 Jul

Production

1026

1002

1007

Supply

1214

1226

1230

Utilization

987

1000

1007

Trade

122

118

122

Ending Stocks

224

219

221

in million tonnes

  • Maize production in 2015 raised by 5 million tonnes, reflecting improved outlook in Brazil, China and Ukraine.
  • Utilization in 2015/16 increased by 7 million tonnes from previous month, largely on expectation of larger use in the US (feed and industrial) and Viet Nam (feed).
  • Trade in 2015/16 (July/June) revised upwards and now standing at par with 2014/15, owing to much larger imports by Viet Nam.
  • Stocks to decline y/y with reductions in the US and several countries in Africa offsetting higher inventories in China.

2014/15

2015/16 forecast

estimate

4 Jun

9 Jul

Production

495

501

499

Supply

677

677

676

Utilization

500

509

507

Trade

42.0

42.5

42.1

Ending Stocks

177

169

169

in million tonnes

  • Rice production in 2015 curbed, mainly on less positive prospects for India and the Philippines, and despite much improved expectations for Indonesia.
  • Utilization in 2015/16 lowered slightly but still expanding from previous year, supporting a modest gain in average per caput food consumption.
  • Trade in rice in 2016 revised downwards, mostly reflecting a reduction in India’s expected sales, only partly compensated by more buoyant prospects for Pakistan, Thailand and Viet Nam.
  • Stocks (ending in 2016) now forecast to drop by 4.4 percent or 8 million tonnes, with much of the decline concentrated in exporting countries.

2014/2015

2015/2016

estimate

forecast 9 Jul

Production

320

316

Supply

353

368

Utilization

301

315

Trade

120

124

Ending Stocks

51

52

in million tonnes

  • Soybean first 2015/16 production forecast slightly below the 2014/15 all-time high. Still, total supply seen growing by 4 percent y/y, underpinned by exceptionally large 2014/15 carry-out stocks.
  • Utilization projected to expand by 4-5 percent in 2015/16 (down from 7 percent in 2014/15), with growth likely concentrated in Asia and South America.
  • Trade in 2015/16 to continue growing, stimulated by persistently strong import demand in China and other Asian countries and by rising export availabilities in South America.
  • Stock (2015/16 carry-out) tentatively forecast to exceed the 2014/15 record, with reductions in Argentina and Brazil more than offset by further accumulation in the United States.

INDICATORS

Latest Events

AMIS on

AMIS COUNTRIES