10 Nov 2016
The latest edition of the Monitor confirms the good outlook for AMIS crops, forecasting a well-supplied market in the next season. Against this backgrop of [...]
07 Oct 2016
Speaking at a side event of FAO's Committee on Commodity Problems, the Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, Ms. Olena Kovalova, praised [...]
30 Sep 2016
This month marks the fifth anniversary of the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), which had convened its inception meeting on 15-16 September 2011. A series of events [...]
28 Jun 2016
The Group on Earth Observations Global Agricultural Monitoring initiative (GEOGLAM) became the eleventh member of the AMIS Secretariat. The AMIS Steering Committee unanimously approved GEOGLAM’s [...]

last release: November 2016

Market Monitor

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

Against a backdrop of ample global supplies and generally good weather conditions favouring plantings of crops due for harvest next year, movements in international prices of all four AMIS crops are largely driven by short-term market events, including unseasonally strong trade activities and exchange rate movements. Based on the latest forecasts, global markets will remain well supplied at least until the end of the current marketing season.

2015/16

2016/17 forecast

estimate

6 Oct

10 Nov

Production

734

742

747

Supply

946

968

972

Utilization

716

730

733

Trade

168

165

168

Ending Stocks

226

234

235

in million tonnes

  • Wheat production in 2016 upgraded, reflecting increases in the Russian Federation and Ukraine on better yields. 
  • Utilization in 2016/17 raised, mostly on expectation of higher feed use because of ample supplies of low quality wheat. 
  • Trade forecast for 2016/17 (July/June) raised with low prices seen to encourage larger imports.
  • Stocks (ending in 2017) up slightly, now 4 percent higher than at the start of the season with largest y/y increases anticipated in China, the Russian Federation and the US.

2015/16

2016/17 forecast

estimate

6 Oct

10 Nov

Production

1007

1029

1025

Supply

1230

1243

1240

Utilization

1009

1032

1030

Trade

139

136

137

Ending Stocks

215

209

208

in million tonnes

  • Maize 2016 production lowered following a downgrading of yields in Brazil, China, the EU and the US.
  • Utilization forecast for 2016/17 lowered, reflecting a cut in feed use; however total use is seen to expand by 2 percent from 2015/16. 
  • Trade forecast for 2016/17 (July/June) scaled up, supported by stronger import demand in the EU and Viet Nam. 
  • Stocks (ending in 2017) revised lower, largely on reduced forecasts for China and the US.

2015/16

2016/17 forecast

estimate

6 Oct

10 Nov

Production

491

498

498

Supply

666

669

669

Utilization

495

501

501

Trade

43.1

43.8  

43.4

Ending Stocks

171

170

170

in million tonnes

  • Rice production in 2016 changed marginally, as an upward adjustment for Thailand is largely offset by downscaled prospects for Sierra Leone and Viet Nam.
  • Utilization in 2016/17 trimmed, but still pointing to a 1.2 percent y/y rise due to expanding food use.
  • Trade in 2017 downgraded somewhat on reduced export prospects for the US, Thailand and Viet Nam.
  • Stocks (ending in 2017) to fall modestly, as cuts in Bangladesh, India and Thailand are compensated by buildups in China, the Republic of Korea and the US.

2015/16

2016/17 forecast

estimate

6 Oct

10 Nov

Production

315

330

333

Supply

358

371

375

Utilization

318

334

334

Trade

134

137

138

Ending Stocks

41

38

39

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2016/17 production raised further on higher yield estimates in the US and Canada and improved forecasts for Brazil and Argentina.
  • Utilization forecast for 2016/17 basically unchanged, with China, Brazil and Argentina driving a y/y expansion of about 5 percent.
  • Trade forecast for 2016/17 adjusted upward slightly, although still pointing to a below-average y/y growth.
  • Stocks (2016/17 carry-out) revised up on higher forecasts for the US and Brazil, but global reserves would drop 9 percent from last season to a three-year low.

INDICATORS

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