08 Jul 2019
Commodity markets seem to have stabilized following a boom that began in the early 2000s. The new average price level for most commodities is expected [...]
04 Jul 2019
The July edition of the AMIS Market Monitor has just been released. According to this month's report, uncertainties surrounding US maize and soybean production prospects [...]
(c) NY Times
(c) NY Times
07 Jun 2019
An abnormally wet spring has delayed plantings across much of the United States, and planting progress for maize and soybeans is at historically low levels. [...]
(c) GEOGLAM
(c) GEOGLAM
31 May 2019
The Crop Monitor of the Group on Earth Observations Global Agricultural Monitoring (GEOGLAM) initiative provides a public good of open, timely, science-driven information on crop [...]

last release: July 2019

Market Monitor

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

While uncertainties surrounding US maize production prospects continue to dominate headlines, attention is gradually shifting to the production outlook for soybeans in the US, where protracted rainfall has also significantly delayed plantings. However, unlike the maize situation, large US stocks and ample South American harvests continue to point to a well-supplied global soybean market in 2019/20. In the meantime, the continuation of trade disputes, notably between the US and China, is likely to remain among the major factors shaping markets.

2018/19

2019/20 

estimate

6 Jun

4 Jul

Production

730.2

769.5

770.8

Supply

1011.0

1037.9

1037.4

Utilization

747.1

755.0

758.4

Trade

169.7

174.0

173.8

Ending Stocks

266.6

280.8

278.5

in million tonnes

  • Wheat production forecast for 2019 increased slightly, mostly due to upward revision in India more than offsetting a cut in Pakistan.
  • Utilization in 2019/20 raised, now up 1.5 percent from 2018/19, supported by improved production prospects and higher use of wheat for animal feed in place of maize.
  • Trade in 2019/20 (July/June) points to a rebound from the 2018/19 reduced level, underpinned by stronger import demand in Africa and Asia.
  • Stocks (ending in 2020) reduces, largely reflecting lower expected inventories in China and the US more than offsetting the higher forecast for Australia.

2018/19

2019/20 

estimate

6 Jun

4 Jul

Production

1115.6

1102.1

1101.4

Supply

1479.0

1454.5

1456.4

Utilization

1134.5

1144.5

1141.9

Trade

159.1

158.3

158.4

Ending Stocks

355.0

310.1

311.1

in million tonnes

  • Maize production forecast for 2019 lowered, with a cut in the forecast for China outweigting a notable increase in Argentina.
  • Utilization in 2019/20 lowered on slower rise of feed and industrial use, especially in Brazil where more supplies are destined for exports. 
  • Trade in 2019/20 (July/June) expected to remain below the estimated record volume in 2018/19 on tighter export availabilities in the US and reduced import demand, especially in the EU.
  • Stocks (ending in 2020) expected to fall well short of their opening levels despite upward revisions in the EU and the US.

2018/19

2019/20 

estimate

6 Jun

4 Jul

Production

517.8

516.7

516.3

Supply

690.9

697.3

696.9

Utilization

511.3

518.2

518.3

Trade

46.9

48.8

48.9

Ending Stocks

180.6

179.1

178.6

in million tonnes

  • Rice production in 2019 lowered fractionally, as reduced expectations, mainly for the US, are partly compensated by improved prospects for Egypt and several other countries.
  • Utilization in 2019/20 still expected to expand by 1.4 percent supported by greater food intake.
  • Trade is contracting by 3.1 percent in 2019 before rebounding to an all-time high in 2020.
  • Stocks (2019/20 carry-outs) trimmed, primarily reflecting lower expected inventories in the Philippines and the US.

2018/19

2019/20 

estimate

6 Jun

4 Jul

Production

364.8

361.3

358.3

Supply

409.5

422.4

421.7

Utilization

349.9

361.5

359.0

Trade

147.0

149.0

148.5

Ending Stocks

63.4

59.9

60.8

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2019/20 production forecast lowered, pointing to a modest y/y drop, with downward adjustments this month for the US and Argentina only partially offset by upward revisions for Brazil.
  • Utilization in 2019/20 trimmed somewhat, but still expected to expand in 2019/20 after a stagnation in 2018/19; consumption prospects in China and Argentina reduced since last month.
  • Trade forecast for 2019/20 lowered marginally on expectation of smaller purchases by China; but growth in world trade still projected to resume after the 2018/19 decline. 
  • Stocks (2019/20 carry-out) raised slightly, with upward corrections for China more than offsetting lower forecasts for Argentina and the US; while falling somewhat, global carry-out is seen remaining at historically high level in 2019/20.

INDICATORS

Events

15th session of the Global Food Market Information Group
27 May 2019 to 28 May 2019
Rome, Italy
9th Secretariat Steering Committee
27 May 2019
Rome, Italy
8th session of the Rapid Response Forum
25 Feb 2019 to 26 Feb 2019
Geneva, Switzerland

COUNTRY DATA