PEXELS
PEXELS
22 Mar 2017
A new AMIS publication provides guidance on measuring grain reserves. Reliable stocks data help decision makers understand food availability, plan the necessary interventions on market [...]
02 Mar 2017
Despite an ample supply situation, international prices of most AMIS crops exceed last year's levels, according to the latest edition of the AMIS Market Monitor [...]
AMIS
AMIS
01 Mar 2017
Argentina will be the next Chair of AMIS, taking over from Germany at the end of the forthcoming meeting of the Global Food Market Information [...]
Jose Antonio Alba
Jose Antonio Alba
09 Dec 2016
According to the December 2016 edition of the AMIS Market Monitor, La Niña conditions are established in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. They are anticipated to [...]

last release: March 2017

Market Monitor

 

From previous month f'cast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

International prices of most AMIS crops exceed last year’s levels with many food markets exhibiting a higher level of volatility, being largely driven by currency fluctuations, trade policy concerns and planting uncertainties. Although supplies are currently ample, the early outlook for crops to be harvested in 2017/18 season is mixed. Further price increases therefore cannot be ruled out, especially in the event of unfavourable weather in key producing regions.

2015/16

2016/17 forecast

estimate

2 Feb

2 Mar

Production

735

758

758

Supply

947

984

983

Utilization

714

736

739

Trade

167

171

172

Ending Stocks

225

245

240

in million tonnes

  • Wheat output estimate for 2016 unchanged from February at an all-time high. Early prospects point to a decrease in global wheat production (not shown in the table) in 2017 but still an above-average crop.
  • Utilization in 2016/17 raised by 2.4 million tonnes, mostly reflecting upward adjustment to post-harvest loss estimates for the 2016 wheat crop in India.
  • Trade forecast for 2016/17 (July/June) lifted slightly on upward adjustments to projected imports by Bangladesh and Viet Nam.
  • Stocks (ending in 2017) lowered by 5.4 million tonnes, mostly reflecting this month’s downward adjustments in India and the US.

2015/16

2016/17 forecast

estimate

2 Feb

2 Mar

Production

1006

1033

1035

Supply

1230

1250

1253

Utilization

1008

1031

1038

Trade

140

138

138

Ending Stocks

218

216

214

in million tonnes

  • Maize production estimate for 2016 raised following this month’s upward revisions to crop estimates in Mexico and Ukraine. The revision puts the 2016 maize crop at a record high, marginally exceeding the previous record in 2014.
  • Utilization in 2016/17 is set to expand faster than anticipated earlier, largely on much higher domestic use in China, India and Mexico.
  • Trade in 2016/17 (July/June) is likely to contract mainly on lower purchases by China and the EU.
  • Stocks (ending in 2017) adjusted downward on larger drawdowns in the EU and China.

2015/16

2016/17 forecast

estimate

2 Feb

2 Mar

Production

492

496

498

Supply

667

667

669

Utilization

495

500

500

Trade

41.6

43.2 

43.1

Ending Stocks

171

170

172

in million tonnes

  • Rice production in 2016 upgraded on improved prospects for Bangladesh, Tanzania and, especially, India.
  • Utilization in 2016/17 still expected to expand, supported by growing food consumption.
  • Trade in 2017 revised down marginally, as reduced export prospects for Pakistan are largely compensated by upward revisions for Myanmar and Thailand.
  • Stocks (ending in 2017) scaled up, as higher anticipated inventories in India more than offset reductions mostly for Thailand.

2015/16

2016/17 forecast

estimate

2 Feb

2 Mar

Production

315

333

337

Supply

359

376

380

Utilization

320

334

336

Trade

135

139

141

Ending Stocks

43

43

44

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2016/17 production is set to reach an all-time high; the forecast has been lifted reflecting upward revisions in Brazil and Argentina, owing to favourable weather conditions.
  • Utilization in 2016/17 raised marginally but overall growth prospects remain subdued (relative to previous years).
  • Trade in 2016/17 (Oct/Sep) revised upward on robust import demand notably by China and larger shipments in particular from Brazil.
  • Stocks forecast (2016/17 carryout) adjusted upward, mainly reflecting larger than anticipated inventories in Argentina.

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