08 Jun 2017
According to the latest edition of the AMIS Market Monitor global markets look set for another comfortable season in 2017/18. World wheat production is forecast to fall below the [...]
http://gsars.org
http://gsars.org
02 Jun 2017
As part of its AMIS capacity building work, FAO released a comprehensive review of the available literature on how to build an agricultural market information [...]
01 Jun 2017
Nigeria was handed over a Computer Assisted Personal Interview (CAPI) system to improve its data collection on agriculture during an official ceremony on 31 May [...]
30 Mar 2017
Prices of food crops are naturally volatile as their supply depends on unpredictable factors such as weather. While volatility is not a problem per se, [...]

last release: June 2017

Market Monitor

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

N/A

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

Global markets look set for another comfortable season in 2017/18. World wheat production is forecast to fall below the 2016 record, but aided by large carryover stocks, wheat markets should remain adequately supplied. Given a record crop on the horizon, maize markets remain generally calm. A small increase in global production is expected to keep rice supplies ample, although reserves held by the major rice exporters may fall to a 10-year low. While early indications suggest a small drop in production of soybeans, large carryover stocks and ample export availabilities provide a buffer against the projected fall in production.

2016/17

2017/18 forecast

estimate

4 May

8 Jun

Production

760.1

740.4

743.2

Supply

983.9

980.0

990.6

Utilization

713.1

731.0

728.3

Trade

174.0

170.0

171.0

Ending Stocks

247.5

247.6

257.4

in million tonnes

  • Wheat production forecast raised, largely on higher crop prospects in Canada, China and India, but still down sharply y/y.
  • Utilization lowered mostly on revisions to China’s historical feed use estimates, as well as the forecast for 2017/18. 
  • Trade in 2017/18 (July/June) raised slightly but still falling short of the 2016/17 record high volume.
  • Stocks (ending in 2018) lifted sharply primarily due to significant upward revisions in China which more than offset downward adjustments in the US. 

 

 

2016/17

2017/18 forecast

estimate

4 May

8 Jun

Production

1039.3

1054.1

1054.0

Supply

1260.2

1278.2

1282.7

Utilization

1035.6

1058.6

1054.8

Trade

138.3

135.0

136.8

Ending Stocks

228.7

214.4

220.4

in million tonnes

  • Maize production prospects remain positive with bumper crops in southern hemisphere countries pushing up world output to a record level. 
  • Utilization lowered, largely reflecting adjustments to feed use forecasts of China and Indonesia, but still projected to increase by 1.9 percent y/y.
  • Trade forecast for 2017/18 (July/June) down y/y but increased slightly m/m on higher import demand by several countries.
  • Stocks (ending in 2018) now seen to decline less on y/y basis, largely because of upward revisions to inventories of Argentina, Brazil, Canada and China.  

 

 

2016/17

2017/18 forecast

estimate

4 May

8 Jun

Production

499.3

503.8

502.6

Supply

670.7

675.0

673.6

Utilization

499.9

506.5

505.7

Trade

43.6

44.1

44.2

Ending Stocks

170.9

170.6

170.5

in million tonnes

  • Rice production forecast downgraded, on less buoyant prospects for Bangladesh and China, and a larger than anticipated reduction in Sri Lanka.
  • Utilization forecasts trimmed, on lower expected feed and industrial uses. Still, overall use in 2017/18 seen up by 1.2 percent y/y, sustained by growing food needs. 
  • Trade in 2018 to expand modestly, as import gains in West Africa and the Near East are partly outweighed by cuts in the Far East. 
  • Stocks (ending in 2018) little changed m/m, as a downgrade for Bangladesh is largely compensated by various small upward revisions.

2016/2017

2017/2018

estimate

forecast 8 Jun

Production

349.8

344.1

Supply

392.5

394.3

Utilization

338.7

350.2

Trade

144.8

146.6

Ending Stocks

50.1

45.2

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2016/17 production revised further upward on confirmation of record yields in Brazil and Argentina.
  • Global 2017/18 production could slip 1.6 percent from the 2016/17 peak, assuming a return to trend yields in the US and South America.
  • Global utilization projected to keep expanding, with most of the growth in 2017/18 driven by China, Brazil and the US. Trade in 2017/18 may rise further, stimulated by firm Asian import demand and ample export availabilities in the US and South America.
  • Global stocks (2017/18 carry-out) could contract by almost 10 percent from the current season’s all-time high.

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