13 May 2019
G20 Agriculture Ministers confirmed their commitment to the objectives of AMIS at their 11-12 May meeting in Niigata, Japan, calling for all G20 members to [...]
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https://www.maxpixel.net
10 May 2019
The rapid spread of African Swine Fever (ASF) throughout East Asia has started to affect AMIS commodity markets. ASF is now endemic in China; it [...]
09 May 2019
First forecasts for global wheat, maize and rice markets point to comfortably balanced markets in the new season 2019/20, according to this month's AMIS Market [...]
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Wikipedia
11 Apr 2019
Freight markets slumped earlier this year as disappointing spot demand and concerns about weakening global economic growth dashed expectations for a strong start to the [...]

last release: May 2019

Market Monitor

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

n/a

Maize

n/a

Rice

n/a

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

The first AMIS forecasts for global wheat, maize and rice markets in 2019/20 point to comfortably balanced markets in the new season. Wheat production is expected to rebound while slower growth in feed use might keep maize stocks at high levels. Rice output will remain close to the 2018 record, with rice inventories likely to increase among major exporters. As for soybeans, markets are bracing for even higher supplies in 2018/19 than anticipated earlier.

 

 

2018/19

2019/20

estimate

f'cast 9 May

Production

730.2

767.0

Supply

1012.5

1035.2

Utilization

747.4

756.9

Trade

170.7

173.5

Ending Stocks

268.2

278.0

in million tonnes

  • Wheat production in 2019 to rebound by 5.0 percent from last year’s reduced level with most of the increase in Australia, the EU and the Russian Federation. 
  • Utilization to increase by 1.3 percent in 2019/20 with food consumption keeping pace with overall population growth and feed use also increasing by 1.4 percent. 
  • Trade in 2019/20 (July/June) to rise by 1.6 percent, supported by stronger import demand in Asia and Africa while the Russian Federation is seen to retain its position as the world’s largest exporter. 
  • Stocks (ending in 2020) to increase by 3.7 percent though still below the record of 2017/18 with higher inventories projected for all major exporters except the US.

2018/19

2019/20

estimate

f'cast 9 May

Production

1114.9

1140.1

Supply

1479.5

1490.9

Utilization

1134.8

1154.1

Trade

160.0

157.5

Ending Stocks

350.8

332.2

in million tonnes

  • Maize production in 2019 to increase by 2.3 percent, after a 1.9 percent plunge in 2018, boosted primarily by production recovery in Argentina, Brazil and the US.
  • Utilization in 2019/20 expected to exceed the current season’s estimated record level by 1.7 percent, largely reflecting continued growth in feed demand.
  • Trade in 2019/20 (July/June) to contract by 1.6 percent, marking the first decline in nearly two decades,  but most of the decrease is expected in the EU after record purchases in 2018/19.
  • Stocks (ending in 2019) to fall by around 5 percent, with continued drawdowns in China accounting for most of the decrease while inventories are also forecast to decrease in the US.

2018/19

2019/20

estimate

f'cast 9 May

Production

516.9

516.8

Supply

690.8

697.3

Utilization

511.2

518.5

Trade

46.8

48.9

Ending Stocks

180.6

178.7

in million tonnes

  • Rice production in 2019 tentatively forecast to match the 2018 peak, as a modest output expansion in Asia is checked by contractions in most other regions.
  • Utilization to grow by 1.4 percent in 2019/20, underpinned by a 1.7 percent rise in food use.
  • Trade in 2019 barely changed m/m, as downscaled imports by Indonesia and various West African countries (particularly Nigeria) offset higher expected purchases elsewhere in Africa and Asia. 
  • Stocks (2019/20 carry-out) to decline by 1.0 percent, with accumulations in major suppliers (namely India) only partly compensating for drawdowns by importers (particularly China).

2017/18

2018/19 

estimate

4 Apr

9 May

Production

344.9

360.6

364.0

Supply

401.5

401.6

407.3

Utilization

349.8

352.7

353.1

Trade

152.8

149.8

149.5

Ending Stocks

43.3

51.9

56.0

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2018/19 production forecast raised on improved harvest outcomes in a number of countries, notably Argentina and Brazil.
  • Utilization forecast for 2018/19 virtually unchanged, with sizeable downward revisions in China (linked to African Swine Fever) compensated by higher crush forecasts for Brazil and several other countries.
  • Trade forecast for 2018/19 remains unchanged, confirming the exceptional y/y decline of 2 percent anticipated earlier.
  • Stocks (2018/19 carry-out) raised considerably on higher forecasts for China, Brazil and Argentina, reinforcing the y/y surge foreseen in global inventories.

INDICATORS

Events

15th session of the Global Food Market Information Group
27 May 2019 to 28 May 2019
Rome, Italy
9th Secretariat Steering Committee
27 May 2019
Rome, Italy
8th session of the Rapid Response Forum
25 Feb 2019 to 26 Feb 2019
Geneva, Switzerland

COUNTRY DATA