01 Nov 2018
Despite a generally positive supply outlook for 2018/19, the latest edition of the AMIS Market Monitor notes that robust demand has kept prices tilted to [...]
(c) Rabobank
(c) Rabobank
05 Oct 2018
For fifteen years, US farmers have responded to China’s inexorable demand for soybeans by nearly doubling their output of the oilseed, even as other countries [...]
(c) Wikipedia.org
(c) Wikipedia.org
06 Sep 2018
As the 2017/18 season gradually unfolds, it is becoming increasingly clear that agricultural markets are in rougher shape than in previous years. Several factors are [...]
(c) imago stock&people
(c) imago stock&people
02 Aug 2018
Wheat harvests are wrapping up amid excessive hot and dry weather in many regions, which has sharply reduced production forecasts. These developments confirm earlier concerns [...]

last release: November 2018

Market Monitor

 

From previous forecast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

With impacts of adverse weather having largely faded and tariff hikes already factored in, markets have become calmer in recent weeks. Nevertheless, despite firmer production estimates and the increased likelihood of a generally positive supply situation in the 2018/19 season, robust demand has kept prices tilted to the upside. Recent strong movements in currency and energy markets seem to have had little impact on market sentiment. The market’s focus is gradually shifting to growing conditions of crops in the ground or soon to be planted, against a backdrop of uncertainty given a possible El Niño event.

2017/18

2018/19 forecast

estimate

4 Oct

1 Nov

Production

760.4

722.4

727.9

Supply

1,015.5

995.5

1,004.7

Utilization

737.2

741.0

740.1

Trade

176.6

174.0

173.2

Ending Stocks

276.8

255.5

264.4

in million tonnes

  • Wheat production forecast for 2018 raised significantly since last month, on reported bigger harvests in China along with a number of other countries more than offsetting a further downgrading of crop prospects in Australia.
  • Utilization in 2018/19 up slightly from 2017/18, with food use being the main driver and feed use of wheat growing at a slower pace due to firmer prices this season.
  • Trade in 2018/19 (July/June) lowered further, reflecting downward adjustments to imports by several countries, including India, Indonesia and South Africa.
  • Stocks (ending 2019) upgraded sharply, primarily on higher projected build-ups in China.

2017/18

2018/19 forecast

estimate

4 Oct

1 Nov

Production

1,092.7

1,066.4

1,068.9

Supply

1,392.5

1,374.0

1,379.9

Utilization

1,072.2

1,104.1

1,109.8

Trade

154.7

155.7

155.8

Ending Stocks

311.1

268.8

267.4

in million tonnes

  • Maize production forecast for 2018 raised on improved prospects in Canada and Indonesia more than offsetting m/m downward revisions in several countries, including Brazil and the US.
  • Utilization in 2018/19 to increase at a faster rate than anticipated earlier, supported by a stronger growth in feed use in several countries.
  • Trade in 2018/19 (July/June) to reach a new peak, underpinned by continued brisk world demand and large export availabilities.
  • Stocks (ending in 2019) downgraded further, now pointing to a decline of almost 14 percent from their record-high opening level, with most of the decrease in Argentina, Brazil, China and the US.

2017/18

2018/19 forecast

estimate

 4 Oct

1 Nov

Production

506.3 

513.0

513.0

Supply

674.2

685.0

685.0

Utilization

503.7

509.2

509.2

Trade

48.0

47.7

47.3

Ending Stocks

172.0

176.5

176.6

in million tonnes

  • Rice production in 2018 still forecast to expand by 1.3 percent to a new record, thanks to area expansions in Asia and, to a lesser extent, North America and Africa.
  • Utilization in 2018/19 to continue increasing, as growth in food use dwarfs declines in feed and industrial uses.
  • Trade in 2018 and 2019 trimmed, on downgraded import forecasts for China and Nigeria.
  • Stocks (2018/19 carry-out) minimally changed m/m. A 2.6 percent y/y rise to be underpinned by expansions in Indonesia, the Philippines, the US and, especially, India and China.

2017/18

2018/19 forecast

estimate

4 Oct

1 Nov

Production

341.1

370.5

371.1

Supply

390.0

410.6

412.2

Utilization

347.6

355.7

356.8

Trade

153.3

151.0

155.6

Ending Stocks

41.1

53.9

54.2

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2018/19 production lifted marginally, as higher forecasts for Argentina, Canada and Ukraine more than offset downward revisions in Brazil and a number of other countries.
  • Utilization in 2018/19 revised up slightly, with lower than earlier anticipated crushing in Brazil compensated by higher utilization in Argentina and a few other countries.
  • Trade in 2018/19 raised, underpinned by stronger import demand in Argentina, Egypt, the EU and some Asian countries.
  • Stocks (2018/19 carry-out) scaled up fractionally, with higher forecasts for the US and China more than countering cuts in Brazil and Canada.

INDICATORS

Events

13th session of the Global Food Market Information Group
03 May 2018 to 04 May 2018
Rome, Italy
7th session of the Rapid Response Forum
15 Mar 2018
Rosario, Argentina
Artificial intelligence for market intelligence
14 Nov 2017
Geneva, Switzerland

COUNTRY DATA