07 Sep 2017
AMIS crops are heading for a comfortable market situation in 2017/18, according to the latest edition of the AMIS Market Monitor released today. Production forecasts were raised [...]
© Wikimedia: Crop harvest in Indonesia
© Wikimedia: Crop harvest in Indonesia
12 Jul 2017
Having reliable forecasts of food production remains a major challenge in many countries. A new AMIS publication provides an extensive literature review of recent practices [...]
10 Jul 2017
To help achieve global food security, heads of state and government from the world’s leading economies recognize the crucial role of functioning and transparent global [...]
28 Jun 2017
Mr. Jesús María Silveyra of Argentina (right) is the new AMIS Chair. Mr. Silveyra took over the Chairmanship from Mr. Friedrich Wacker of Germany (left) [...]

last release: Sep 2017

Market Monitor

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

Supply and demand prospects continue to point to a generally comfortable market situation for all AMIS crops in 2017/18. With the latest production forecasts indicating higher global outputs than earlier anticipated, especially for wheat, and large carryovers from the previous season, total supply in 2017/18 is likely to prove more than sufficient to meet projected demand. Indeed, ending wheat stocks are expected to hit a new high while maize inventories would only fall marginally below their already record opening levels. Rice and soybean markets would also remain well supplied if current production forecasts materialize.

2016/17

2017/18 forecast

estimate

6 Jul

7 Sep

Production

760.3

739.9

748.8

Supply

981.7

987.0

996.0

Utilization

731.8

727.7

730.9

Trade

175.8

171.8

174.7

Ending Stocks

247.3

255.8

261.9

in million tonnes

  • Wheat production in 2017 raised by almost 9 million tonnes, reflecting this month’s significant upward revisions mostly in the Russian Federation.
  • Utilization in 2017/18 to approach the 2016/17 estimated record level as large global supplies stimulate food consumption.
  • Trade forecast in 2017/18 (July/June) lifted by almost 3 million tonnes on stronger import demand particularly in Brazil and India.
  • Stocks (ending in 2018) to hit an all-time high with the latest forecast 6 million tonnes higher than in July on expectation of bigger inventories in the Russian Federation.

2016/17

2017/18 forecast

estimate

6 July

7 Sep

Production

1039.7

1057.9

1062.9

Supply

1263.4

1289.4

1298.0

Utilization

1032.4

1055.4

1057.2

Trade

132.2

140.0

144.3

Ending Stocks

235.1

225.7

233.3

in million tonnes

  • Maize production in 2017 set to reach a new high at nearly 1 063 million tonnes, 5 million tonnes higher than in July reflecting larger outputs in Latin America and the CIS.
  • Utilization to expand by 1.3 percent in 2017/18 mostly driven by a 2.6 percent y/y growth in feed use.
  • Trade in 2017/18 (July/June) heading towards a 5 percent expansion with the latest forecast 4 million tonnes higher than in July on larger imports by China, the EU and Mexico.
  • Stocks forecast (ending in 2018) raised by 7.6 million tonnes mostly on higher-than-earlier anticipated build-ups in Brazil. 

2016/17

2017/18 forecast

estimate

6 July

7 Sep

Production

501.0

502.9

503.4

Supply

671.8

673.6

674.1

Utilization

499.9

505.6

506.5

Trade

44.5

44.4

44.8

Ending Stocks

170.8

171.0

171.2

in million tonnes

  • Rice 2017 production upgraded somewhat, but still pointing to a modest expansion from the 2016 all-time high.
  • Utilization in 2017/18 scaled up mostly on account of India and Thailand, which more than outweighed a reduction to China’s forecast.
  • Trade in 2018 forecast to remain brisk, with exports by Cambodia and China upgraded the most.
  • Stocks in 2018 little varied y/y, as accumulations in rice importing countries compensate for drawdowns in the major exporters.

2016/17

2017/18 forecast

estimate

6 July

7 Sep

Production

349.0

342.4

347.6

Supply

393.6

398.1

402.0

Utilization

336.5

346.4

347.4

Trade

145.9

149.0

150.3 

Ending Stocks

54.4

51.5

52.8

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2017/18 production raised by 5.2 million tonnes, to now a near record level, following upward revisions for Brazil and the US more than offsetting lower forecasts in Argentina and India. 
  • Utilization virtually unchanged from the last forecast, confirming a below-average y/y growth of 3.5 percent.
  • Trade forecast for 2017/18 revised further upwards, primarily reflecting higher export availabilities in the US.
  • Stocks (2017/18 carry-out) lifted, based primarily on higher forecasts for Brazil. Global inventories are now forecast to drop only 1.5 million tonnes from last season’s all-time record.

INDICATORS

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