05 Jul 2018
This month's edition of the AMIS Market Monitor focuses on the rising trade tensions between the United States and several of its main trading partners, especially [...]
05 Jul 2018
Recent trade tensions between the United States and several of its trading partners, most notably China, have threatened to spill over into global commodity markets [...]
10 Apr 2018
In an effort to continuously improve activities and outputs, the AMIS Secretariat commissioned two independent evaluations: One looking at the interplay between Secretariat member organizations [...]
Delegates at the 2018 meeting of the AMIS Rapid Response Forum
Delegates at the 2018 meeting of the AMIS Rapid Response Forum
15 Mar 2018
Canada was unanimously elected as the new AMIS Chair. The chairmanship will be passed over from Argentina at the next meeting of the Global Food Market [...]

last release: July 2018

Market Monitor

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

In the past few weeks, trade tensions between the United States and China have introduced considerable uncertainty in global commodities markets. China’s announcement to introduce retaliatory tariffs on imports of US soybeans triggered a plunge in world soybean and soymeal prices, with strong spillover effects across the oilcrops complex as well as most other agricultural commodities. For wheat and maize, supply and demand fundamentals continue to point to much tighter markets in 2018/19 while the situation for rice and soybeans appears more balanced from a global perspective.

2017/18

2018/19 forecast

estimate

7 Jun

5 Jul

Production

756.8

754.1

736.1

Supply

1,013.1

1,027.5

1,019.5

Utilization

738.2

743.5

741.1

Trade

173.5

175.0

175.0

Ending Stocks

273.4

283.4

264.2

in million tonnes

  • Wheat production forecast for 2018 lowered, mostly on downward revisions in China, the EU, the Russian Federation and Ukraine.
  • Utilization in 2018/19 reduced slightly following downward adjustments to feed, especially in Australia, Mexico and Ukraine.
  • Trade in 2018/19 (July/June) virtually unchanged, supported by higher sales from the EU and the US more than compensating for lower shipments from Australia, the Russian Federation and Ukraine.
  • Stocks (ending in 2019) trimmed sharply on downward adjustments in China, the EU and the Russian Federation.

2017/18

2018/19 forecast

estimate

7 Jun

5 Jul

Production

1,091.0

1,046.5

1,044.7

Supply

1,388.8

1,356.2

1,307.1

Utilization

1,069.0

1,090.0

1,091.5

Trade

149.0

147.0

148.7

Ending Stocks

309.9

262.4

260.3

in million tonnes

  • Maize production in 2018 to fall by over 4 percent from last year’s record volume on shrinking harvests in several countries, in particular Argentina, Brazil and the US.
  • Utilization up sharply from the previous season and now raised even further on projected stronger increase in industrial use (starch and biofuels), mostly in China.
  • Trade forecast for 2018/19 (July/June) lifted m/m, reflecting much stronger import prospects by several countries in Asia.
  • Stocks (ending in 2019) revised down, now lowest in five years, with further drawdowns in Ukraine and the US.

2017/18

2018/19 forecast

estimate

7 Jun

5 Jul

Production

504.6 

511.3

511.4

Supply

673.6

682.4

685.2

Utilization

504.3

509.3

509.5

Trade

47.8

47.4

47.5

Ending Stocks

171.1

173.8

173.7

in million tonnes

  • Rice production forecast for 2018 essentially unchanged m/m, as a downgraded estimate for Australia offset small upward revisions for South American countries, namely Brazil.
  • Utilization in 2018/19 to expand by 1.0 percent, with per capita food consumption seen posting a small y/y increase.
  • Trade in 2018 and 2019 still envisaged to remain close to the 2017 all-time record, on continued strong import demand.
  • Stocks (ending in 2019) little varied m/m, as slightly lower forecasts for Australia and Brazil outweigh an increase to carryover forecasts, mainly for the Philippines.

2017/18

2018/19 forecast

estimate

7 Jun

5 Jul

Production

337.9

358.3

359.6

Supply

390.5

397.8

396.3

Utilization

352.6

360.4

357.9

Trade

151.3

156.9

156.3

Ending Stocks

39.5

36.7

39.2

in million tonnes

  • Soybean production forecast for 2018/19 almost unchanged from last month, hence confirming a strong year-on-year increase fuelled by prospective production rebounds in Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay.
  • Utilization adjusted downward, mostly reflecting lower than earlier anticipated forecasts for Brazil, where crushing is anticipated to drop from last season’s exceptionally high level.
  • Trade forecast lowered fractionally compared with last month, entailing slightly lower year-on-year growth.
  • Stocks (2018/19 carry-out) forecast raised significantly on upward revisions for the US, Brazil and Argentina.

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