12 Sep 2016
The AMIS Secretariat seeks your views on the initiative's main report, the AMIS Market Monitor. Please complete this 1-minute survey, which will help us in [...]
08 Sep 2016
The current Market Monitor sees crop prospects improved compared to July, with large export availabilities contributing to declines in international prices of the AMIS crops. [...]
28 Jun 2016
The Group on Earth Observations Global Agricultural Monitoring initiative (GEOGLAM) became the eleventh member of the AMIS Secretariat. The AMIS Steering Committee unanimously approved GEOGLAM’s [...]
Wikipedia
Wikipedia
15 Jun 2016
In an effort to increase the efficiency of Kazakhstan's grain sector, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) teamed up with the European [...]

last release: September 2016

Market Monitor

 

From previous month f'cast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

Improved crop prospects and plentiful export availabilities contributed to further declines in international prices of the four AMIS crops. Production forecasts have been raised since the previous report in July, in particular for maize and soybeans. Although weather may still alter the outlook for crops to be harvested in 2016/17, global markets are expected to experience a relatively calm outlook thanks to generally ample inventories.

2015/16

2016/17 forecast

estimate

7 Jul

8 Sep

Production

734

732

741

Supply

943

944

966

Utilization

715

726

729

Trade

165

159

164

Ending Stocks

225

217

233

in million tonnes

  • Wheat  production in 2016 to reach all-time high despite a sharp downgrading of EU crops.
  • Utilization in 2016/17 higher than anticipated earlier, given the prospects for larger feed use because of ample supplies of low quality wheat.
  • Trade forecast for 2016/17 (July/June) scaled up sharply with low prices boosting import demand, especially in Asia and Africa.
  • Stocks forecast (ending in 2017) raised sharply, now exceeding their opening levels, mostly on higher anticipated inventories in China.

2015/16

2016/17 forecast

estimate

7 Jul

8 Sep

Production

1004

1018

1030

Supply

1230

1237

1249

Utilization

1007

1030

1029

Trade

139

132

135

Ending Stocks

219

207

217

in million tonnes

  • Maize production forecast for 2016 raised sharply, mostly on exceptional yield expectations in the US.
  • Utilization in 2016/17 to expand, underpinned by strong growth in demand for feed use.
  • Trade forecast for 2016/17 (July/June) lifted on higher import expectations in South America.
  • Stocks (ending in 2017) adjusted upwards with most of the increase in the US, reflecting the latest upgrading of maize  production prospects. 

2015/16

2016/17 forecast

estimate

7 Jul

8 Sep

Production

491

495

496

Supply

665

665

666

Utilization

496

503

503

Trade

43.5

43.8  

43.7

Ending Stocks

170

165

166

in million tonnes

  • Rice production in 2016 scaled up, as improved weather in Asia and less attractive prices for alternative crops boost plantings.
  • Utilization in 2016/17 to grow by 1.4 percent y/y thanks to expanding food use.
  • Trade in 2017 lowered marginally, with reduced import expectations for the Philippines and Iraq partly offset by higher forecasts for Brazil.
  • Stocks in 2017 upgraded by 1 million tonnes, on higher anticipated inventories in India, the US and Viet Nam.

2015/16

2016/17 forecast

estimate

7 Jul

8 Sep

Production

316

319

326

Supply

360

361

368

Utilization

318

330

332

Trade

133

136

136

Ending Stocks

43

32

36

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2016/17 production raised as favourable weather is expected to boost US crop prospects.
  • Global 2016/17 utilization increased slightly, now up 4.2 percent from 2015/16.
  • Trade in 2016/17 almost unchanged, with US sales revised sharply upwards at the expense of other exporters, notably Brazil.
  • Stocks estimate (2016/17 carry out) raised on higher forecasts for the US and Argentina, although remaining well below the 2015/16 record.

INDICATORS

Events

Tenth session of the Global Food Market Information Group
06 Oct 2016 to 07 Oct 2016
Rome, Italy
Ninth session of the Global Food Market Information Group
22 Jun 2016 to 23 Jun 2016
Rome, Italy
Training workshop: AMIS mobile tool for market price data collection
04 Apr 2016 to 07 Apr 2016
Kaduna State, Nigeria

AMIS on

AMIS COUNTRIES