05 Oct 2017
Despite some movements in international prices the overall outlook for AMIS crops in 2017/18 remains positive, according to the latest edition of the AMIS Market [...]
© Wikimedia: Crop harvest in Indonesia
© Wikimedia: Crop harvest in Indonesia
12 Jul 2017
Having reliable forecasts of food production remains a major challenge in many countries. A new AMIS publication provides an extensive literature review of recent practices [...]
10 Jul 2017
To help achieve global food security, heads of state and government from the world’s leading economies recognize the crucial role of functioning and transparent global [...]
28 Jun 2017
Mr. Jesús María Silveyra of Argentina (right) is the new AMIS Chair. Mr. Silveyra took over the Chairmanship from Mr. Friedrich Wacker of Germany (left) [...]

last release: Oct 2017

Market Monitor

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

The supply and demand prospects for the four AMIS crops in 2017/18 remain positive. While recent movements in international prices portray a mixed picture, they reflect normal seasonal patterns for this time of the year. For maize, the final size of the US crop will factor heavily on international price movements. For the other crops, the eventual size of plantings will be a main determinant of price developments (i.e. winter wheat and secondary rice in the northern hemisphere and soybeans, along with maize, in South America).

2016/17

2017/18 forecast

estimate

7 Sep

5 Oct

Production

759.6 

748.8

750.1 

Supply

982.0 

996.0

996.4

Utilization

732.4 

730.9

734.3 

Trade

175.8 

174.7

174.7 

Ending Stocks

246.3 

261.9

261.2 

in million tonnes

  • Wheat production forecast for 2017 raised this month on bigger harvests in several countries, in particular in the Russian Federation and EU.
  • Utilization in 2017/18 expected to expand at a slower pace, mostly on lower feed use of wheat because of large supplies of cheaper coarse grains.
  • Trade in 2017/18 (July/June) to remain close to the 2016/17 all-time high, underpinned by ample export availabilities, especially in the Russian Federation.
  • Stocks (ending in 2018) lowered slightly from last month but still a record and well above their opening levels with the largest year-on-year increase in China.

2016/17

2017/18 forecast

estimate

7 Sep

5 Oct

Production

1,039.2 

1,062.9

1,064.5 

Supply

1,264.3 

1,298.0

1,300.1 

Utilization

1,029.6 

1,057.2

1,055.2 

Trade

138.4 

144.3

143.0 

Ending Stocks

235.6 

233.3

236.6 

in million tonnes

  • Maize production in 2017 heading for a record with the latest forecast higher than last month largely on improved yield prospects in China and the US.
  • Utilization in 2017/18 lowered but still growing by 2.5 percent year-on-year, supported by firmer demand for feed and industrial use.
  • Trade in 2017/18 (July/June) lowered but still forecast to expand, driven by brisk world demand and large export supplies. 
  • Stocks forecast (ending in 2018) raised largely on higher inventories in the US and historical revisions to carryovers in Japan. 
  •  

2016/17

2017/18 forecast

estimate

7 Sep

5 Oct

Production

501.0

503.4

500.7 

Supply

667.5 

674.1

669.3 

Utilization

497.8 

506.5

502.9 

Trade

44.7 

44.8

45.2 

Ending Stocks

168.5 

171.2

169.5 

in million tonnes

  • Rice production downscaled, mainly on deteriorated prospects for Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Viet Nam.
  • Utilization in 2017/18 revised down, but still expected to rise modestly y/y owing to expanding food use.
  • Trade in 2018 raised slightly, on higher expected imports by several countries in Asia and Africa.
  • Stocks (ending in 2018) lowered following historical revisions to inventories in China, as well as downward adjustments to carry-over forecasts mostly for Bangladesh, Indonesia and Myanmar.

2016/17

2017/18 forecast

estimate

7 Sep

5 Oct

Production

348.9 

347.6

346.4 

Supply

393.5 

402.0

399.1 

Utilization

339.3 

347.4

350.4 

Trade

146.3 

150.3 

151.9 

Ending Stocks

52.7 

52.8

48.7 

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2017/18 production lowered slightly, with downward corrections in Argentina, Ukraine and Canada only partially offset by gains in the US.
  • Utilization in 2017/18 raised somewhat on higher forecasts for a number of developing countries across the globe.
  • Trade in 2017/18 adjusted upward mostly on higher than earlier anticipated import demand in Asia and Africa; export forecasts have been lifted for Brazil and the US.
  • Stocks (2017/18 carry-out) revised downward significantly, mainly reflecting lower forecasts for Brazil and, to a lesser extent, Argentina and China.

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