07 Dec 2017
With global supplies of wheat, maize, rice and soybeans still pointing to comfortable prospects in the 2017/18 marketing season, the outlook for the four AMIS [...]
DG WTO Roberto Azevêdo (right) with the AMIS Chair Jésus Silveyra (left). © WTO
DG WTO Roberto Azevêdo (right) with the AMIS Chair Jésus Silveyra (left). © WTO
17 Nov 2017
Speaking earier this week at the Global Food Market Information Group, the Director-General of the World Trade Organization (WTO) Roberto Azevêdo stressed that AMIS promotes [...]
© NWS/NCEP Climate Prediction Center
© NWS/NCEP Climate Prediction Center
03 Nov 2017
Although conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are currently neutral, a La Niña watch has been declared, with the probability of La Niña conditions in the [...]
© www.globalgrainevents.com
© www.globalgrainevents.com
26 Oct 2017
Several AMIS country representatives and Secretariat members will speak at Global Grain Geneva, an annual event reaching out to the global grains and oilseeds trading [...]

last release: Dec 2017

Market Monitor

 

From previous month f'cast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

Despite some downgrading of the outlook for wheat and soybeans, global supplies of the four AMIS crops continue to point to comfortable prospects in 2017/18. Price developments in November remained muted, reflecting generally well-balanced markets. While unfavourable climatic conditions are seen to have hampered production prospects in several major growing areas, large inventories are expected to buffer against potential shortfalls.

2016/17

2017/18 forecast

estimate

2 Nov

7 Dec

Production

761.3

752.8

754.9

Supply

983.7

998.0

999.3

Utilization

733.7

738.2

739.8

Trade

177.1

175.2

175.0

Ending Stocks

244.4

258.2

257.2

in million tonnes

  • Wheat 2017 production raised, reflecting upward revisions in the EU more than offsetting a cut in Argentina; but latest forecast still below last year’s record. 
  • Utilization in 2017/18 increased, mostly due to higher-than-earlier projected increases in the EU.
  • Trade in 2017/18 (July/June) seen to remain below the previous season’s peak, largely because of lower import demand by China and India.
  • Stocks (ending in 2018) reduced slightly but still expected to rise sharply y/y to a record high level, with China and Russia accounting for most of the increase.

2016/17

2017/18 forecast

estimate

2 Nov

7 Dec

Production

1,041.5

1,063.6 

1,075.3 

Supply

1,267.1

1,299.8 

1,312.7 

Utilization

1,034.9 

1,056.1 

1,061.8 

Trade

139.0 

143.9 

143.0 

Ending Stocks

237.3

236.7 

245.2 

in million tonnes

  • Maize 2017 production lifted significantly, mostly reflecting upward revisions in Indonesia and the US.
  • Utilization in 2017/18 raised, with most of the increase driven by higher feed use.
  • Trade in 2017/18 (July/June) reduced, partially because of lower-than-earlier projected import demand by Viet Nam; but global trade still to surpass the 2016/17 record volume by a significant margin. 
  • Stocks (ending in 2018) scaled up mostly on larger inventory build-ups in several countries, especially in the US where ending stocks could climb to a new record.

2016/17

2017/18 forecast

estimate

2 Nov

7 Dec

Production

501.1

500.8 

500.8 

Supply

668.5 

669.3 

669.3 

Utilization

497.9 

503.2 

503.2 

Trade

45.9 

45.4 

46.2 

Ending Stocks

169.1 

169.2 

170.2

in million tonnes

  • Rice production forecast essentially unchanged m/m, as upward revisions for Myanmar, Pakistan and the Philippines are partly outweighed by reductions for Bangladesh and Madagascar.
  • Utilization forecast for 2017/18 trimmed on lower expected feed use in Asia.
  • Trade in 2018 raised somewhat, mainly on higher than earlier anticipated exports by China and Myanmar.
  • Stocks (ending in 2018) upgraded, mostly on larger expected carry-overs in Bangladesh, India and Viet Nam.

2016/17

2017/18 forecast

estimate

2 Nov

7 Dec

Production

348.6 

346.3 

345.9 

Supply

393.0 

397.6 

397.0 

Utilization

340.3 

348.8 

350.8 

Trade

147.7 

152.5 

153.3 

Ending Stocks

51.1 

49.1 

45.9 

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2017/18 production lowered slightly, with downward corrections in Argentina only partially offset by higher forecasts for Brazil.
  • Utilization in 2017/18 raised on higher forecasts for China and Brazil; but the y/y growth still set to remain below average.
  • Trade forecast for 2017/18 lifted because of stronger-than-earlier anticipated import demand by China and higher export availabilities in Brazil.
  • Stocks (2017/18 carry-out) reduced following downward revisions in Argentina and Brazil.

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