11 Mar 2019
FAO-AMIS foresees global wheat production to strongly recover from last year, rising by 4.0 percent, to 757.4 million tonnes in 2019. This would be close [...]
07 Mar 2019
This month's Market Monitor confirms previous assessments of well-supplied global food commodity markets. While export availabilities are generally seen adequate for all four AMIS crops, developments [...]
27 Feb 2019
A new data dashboard provides a quick overview of the global food market situation. Explore key indicators such as world production, utilization and stocks or [...]
26 Feb 2019
Taking advantage of their presence in Geneva for the 8th session of the Rapid Response Forum, members of the AMIS Secretariat participated in a side [...]

last release: March 2019

Market Monitor

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

Easing trade tensions provided some support mostly to maize and soybean markets in February. Given that export availabilities remain generally adequate for all four AMIS crops, any significant divergence from recent trends would most likely be driven by developments in outside markets, policies, or sudden changes to supply and demand prospects. In this connection, the preliminary outlook for wheat markets already points to a strong production recovery in 2019/20, which should help replenish inventories, especially those held by major exporters.

2017/18

2018/19 

estimate

7 Feb

7 Mar

Production

759.4

728.4

728.3

Supply

1014.0

1005.7

1003.6

Utilization

737.8

742.6

741.8

Trade

176.9

171.8

171.0

Ending Stocks

275.3

266.9

264.7

in million tonnes

  • Wheat production in 2018 down 4.1 percent from the 2017 record and slightly lower m/m, with reduced estimates in Kazakhstan offsetting higher estimates for Argentina and Australia.
  • Utilization in 2018/19 lowered slightly m/m largely on downgrading of feed estimates for Canada and the US.
  • Trade forecast for 2018/19 (July/June) trimmed, reflecting lower-than-earlier anticipated purchases by several countries.
  • Stocks (ending in 2019) declining by 3.9 percent, with the latest forecast reflecting bigger drawdowns in several Asian countries and downward adjustments to inventory levels in Argentina (starting from 2014/15).

2017/18

2018/19 

estimate

7 Feb

7 Mar

Production

1094.0

1080.5

1074.4

Supply

1394.0

1393.3

1381.8

Utilization

1073.0

1114.0

1111.7

Trade

155.4

158.9

160.0

Ending Stocks

307.5

274.7

267.0

in million tonnes

  • Maize 2018 production curtailed, with reduced yields in the US and lower crop prospects in South Africa more than offsetting an upward revision in the Ukraine.
  • Utilization in 2018/19 reduced, though still up 3.6 percent from 2017/18, in anticipation of slower growth in feed use in the US.
  • Trade forecast for 2018/19 (July/June) lifted by 1.1 million m/m, underpinned by higher shipments from the Ukraine.
  • Stocks (ending in 2019) falling even more significantly than earlier projected, with larger drawdowns in several southern hemisphere countries and the US.

2017/18

2018/19 

estimate

7 Feb

7 Mar

Production

506.8

514.1

514.9

Supply

675.2

686.7

687.4

Utilization

504.7

509.2

509.3

Trade

48.1

47.3

47.1

Ending Stocks

172.5

177.5

177.6

in million tonnes

  • Rice production forecast for 2018 lifted, principally because of upward revisions to historical production estimates for Nigeria.
  • Utilization in 2018/19 expected to increase by 0.9 percent, bolstered by rising food use.
  • Trade in 2019 adjusted down marginally m/m, reflecting lower expected export availabilities in various South American suppliers.
  • Stocks (2018/19 carry-out) set to expand by 3.0 percent to a record level, led by accumulations in India and China and despite expectations of cuts in various African countries, in particular Egypt.

2017/18

2018/19 

estimate

7 Feb

7 Mar

Production

341.7

364.3

361.5

Supply

398.7

405.1

402.6

Utilization

349.7

354.8

353.0

Trade

153.6

154.0

151.5

Ending Stocks

41.1

53.7

52.3

in million tonnes

  • Soybeans 2018/19 production trimmed on lower forecasts for Brazil and downward corrections in the US.  
  • Utilization in 2018/19 adjusted downward, mainly reflecting reduced forecasts in China. Global consumption now anticipated to grow by less than 1 percent.
  • Trade forecasts for 2018/19 lowered somewhat, now pointing to a contraction, underpinned by subdued demand in China.
  • Stocks (2018/19 carry-out) revised downward on lower forecasts for the US, though, global inventories are still expected to expand sharply.

INDICATORS

Events

8th session of the Rapid Response Forum
25 Feb 2019 to 26 Feb 2019
Geneva, Switzerland
13th session of the Global Food Market Information Group
03 May 2018 to 04 May 2018
Rome, Italy
7th session of the Rapid Response Forum
15 Mar 2018
Rosario, Argentina

COUNTRY DATA