07 Jul 2016
The latest edition of the Market Monitor sees the AMIS crops more volatile than in previous months. Unsettled weather and overall economic uncertainty following the [...]
28 Jun 2016
The Group on Earth Observations Global Agricultural Monitoring initiative (GEOGLAM) became the eleventh member of the AMIS Secretariat. The AMIS Steering Committee unanimously approved GEOGLAM’s [...]
Wikipedia
Wikipedia
15 Jun 2016
In an effort to increase the efficiency of Kazakhstan's grain sector, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) teamed up with the European [...]
@PhilHoganEU/Twitter
@PhilHoganEU/Twitter
03 Jun 2016
In their 3 June meeting, G20 agriculture ministers acknowledged the heavy impact of extreme food price volatility on global food security and even global stability. [...]

last release: July 2016

Market Monitor

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

Unsettled weather made markets for AMIS crops volatile even before the start of the turmoil associated with the UK referendum on 23 June. In the meantime, the overall supply and demand outlook for the 2016/17 season has changed little. In the coming months, weather is likely to play a critical role for northern hemisphere maize, soybeans and rice crops. The UK's vote to leave the EU adds further uncertainty, with first shock waves already observed in financial markets.

 

 

2015/16

2016/17 forecast

estimate

2 Jun

7 Jul

Production

734

724

732

Supply

937

935

944

Utilization

720

718

726

Trade

157

155

159

Ending Stocks

212

216

217

in million tonnes

  • Wheat production forecast for 2016 lifted sharply; now only 2 million tonnes below last year’s record.
  • Utilization forecast for 2016/17 increased, reflecting the likelihood of much higher-than-earlier projected feed use of wheat in the EU and several countries in Asia.
  • Trade volume in 2016/17 (July/June) is seen bigger than earlier forecast and now 1 percent above 2015/16.
  • Stocks (ending in 2017) to increase to a 15-year high but China alone would account for the bulk of the projected y/y increase in world inventories.

2015/16

2016/17 forecast

estimate

2 June

7 July

Production

1004

1027

1018

Supply

1228

1246

1237

Utilization

1007

1029

1030

Trade

134

131

132

Ending Stocks

219

214

207

in million tonnes

  • Maize production forecast for 2016 lowered significantly, mainly because of a much smaller harvest in Brazil due to unfavourable weather.
  • Utilization in 2016/17 to expand by 2.3 percent y/y, driven by a strong anticipated growth in feed use, led by China and the US.
  • Trade forecast for 2016/17 (July/June) increased slightly m/m with higher imports by Bangladesh and Brazil offsetting lower forecasts for China and Japan.
  • Stocks (ending in 2017) to decline for the second consecutive season, following this month’s cuts in forecast ending inventories especially in China and the US.

2015/16

2016/17 forecast

estimate

2 Jun

7 Jul

Production

491

494

495

Supply

664

663

665

Utilization

496

503

503

Trade

44.1

44.1

43.8

Ending Stocks

169

164

165

in million tonnes

  • Rice production in 2016 raised slightly on improved prospects for Egypt, the Lao PDR, Pakistan and Tanzania.
  • Utilization in 2016/17 forecast to grow by 1.4 percent y/y, sustained primarily by growing food use in Asia and Africa.
  • Trade in calendar 2017 to fall slightly below the 2016 subdued level, amid expectations of diminished demand from the Far East and South America.
  • Stocks (ending in 2017) upgraded on account of Cambodia, Pakistan and Viet Nam, but still forecast to fall 3 percent short of their opening levels.

2015/16

2016/17 forecast

estimate

2 Jun

7 Jul

Production

313

321

319

Supply

358

364

361

Utilization

316

330

330

Trade

131

138

136

Ending Stocks

43

35

32

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2016/17 global production forecast lowered slightly; although still implying a 2 percent increase over 2015/16, the new forecast falls short of the 2014/15 record.
  • Utilization forecast for 2016/17 virtually unchanged, with China, other countries in Asia and Brazil driving a y/y increase of 4–5 percent.
  • Trade forecast for 2016/17 revised downwards, mainly reflecting lower than earlier anticipated y/y expansion in China’s imports.
  • Stocks (2016/17 carry-out) lowered m/m, now down 11 million tonnes from the 2015/16 level and a 4-year low.

INDICATORS

Events

Ninth session of the Global Food Market Information Group
22 Jun 2016 to 23 Jun 2016
Rome, Italy
Training workshop: AMIS mobile tool for market price data collection
04 Apr 2016 to 07 Apr 2016
Kaduna State, Nigeria
Fifth session of the Rapid Response Forum
10 Mar 2016
Washington, DC, United States

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