06 May 2021
From a global perspective, supply and demand fundamentals concerning the AMIS crops continue to point to a generally comfortable market situation. However, increasing uncertainties with [...]
05 May 2021
The storage of grains has an important food security dimension. A new AMIS paper reviews recent trends in grain stockholding; discusses the two main purposes [...]
©STDF/José Carlos Alexandre
©STDF/José Carlos Alexandre
05 May 2021
At its 21 April meeting, the AMIS Rapid Response Forum (RRF) took stock of the uncertain economic and trade environment caused by the year-long global [...]
22 Apr 2021
Mexico will be the new Chair of AMIS, taking over responsibilities from the European Union at the next meeting of the Global Food Market Information [...]

last release: May 2021

Market Monitor

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

n/a

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

From a global perspective, supply and demand fundamentals concerning the AMIS crops continue to point to a generally comfortable market situation. However, increasing uncertainties with regard to weather developments, macroeconomic conditions and the pandemic-driven health crisis have raised some concerns about the prospects for the months ahead. The steep rise in international prices of most agricultural commodities, coupled with food inflation that appears to be gaining ground in many countries, necessitates a more prudent interpretation of how food markets are evolving. In this context, an effective and well-functioning trade environment must be guaranteed in order to safeguard market stability and prevent excessive levels of price volatility.

2020/21

2021/22 

estimate

6 May

Production

774.6

778.8

Supply

1051.8

1063.6

Utilization

763.3

770.0

Trade

188.0

184.5

Ending Stocks

284.9

293.5

in million tonnes

  • Wheat production in 2021 to increase above last year’s level to a new record, supported by higher outputs in several countries and a strong rebound in the EU more than offsetting declines in Australia, Canada, and the Russian Federation.
  • Utilization in 2021/22 to increase, largely driven by growth in food consumption and industrial use, whereas feed use of wheat could fall slightly short of the 2020/21 record level.
  • Trade in 2021/22 (July/June) may be heading for a contraction on reduced import prospects from China, Morocco and Pakistan but shipments from Argentina and the EU are likely to increase.
  • Stocks (ending in 2022) likely to rise for a third consecutive season, reaching a new peak; but the bulk of the increase is expected to be concentrated in China.

2019/20

2020/21 

estimate

8 Apr

6 May

Production

1138.7

1154.8

1155.7

Supply

1462.8

1457.0

1458.7

Utilization

1156.1

1179.4

1183.6

Trade

174.4

186.5

186.7

Ending Stocks

303.0

279.0

275.6

in million tonnes

  • Maize 2020 production raised marginally on upward revisions in Turkey and several countries in Africa.
  • Utilization in 2020/21 revised up, mostly reflecting higher estimates for feed use in China and the US.
  • Trade for 2020/21 (July/June) is forecast to expand by 7 percent, largely driven by record purchases by China.
  • Stocks (ending 2021) scaled down since last month, mostly reflecting downward revisions of inventories in the US because of stronger domestic demand for feed and industrial use.

 

 

2019/20

2020/21 

estimate

8 Apr

6 May

Production

503.0

513.6

513.2

Supply

688.7

696.3

695.9

Utilization

504.4

514.1

513.8

Trade

45.4

48.2

48.4

Ending Stocks

182.7

182.7

183.1

in million tonnes

  • Rice production in 2020 trimmed as an upward revision to output in Madagascar is offset by cuts for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and Guinea.
  • Utilization in 2020/21 still seen expanding to a record high, despite a slight downward adjustment, namely to food use expectations.
  • Trade in 2021 (January-December) essentially unchanged m/m, with a revival in imports by Bangladesh and West African countries behind much of the expected 6.4 percent y/y expansion.
  • Stocks (2020/21 carry-out) raised slightly, as historical revisions to stocks in Taiwan, alongside other smaller upward revisions, outweigh cuts to carry-overs, namely in Japan.

2019/20

2020/21 

estimate

8 Apr

6 May

Production

338.2

361.3

363.5

Supply

401.4

415.9

418.1

Utilization

360.0

375.3

375.4

Trade

169.2

169.5

170.3

Ending Stocks

54.9

40.1

41.2

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2020/21 production forecast raised slightly, mostly reflecting an upward revision for Brazil, now pointing to a 7.5 percent rise in global output compared to 2019/20.
  • Utilization in 2020/21 virtually unchanged m/m, as a downward adjustment for the US is compensated by higher forecasts for Argentina, Brazil and a number of other countries.
  • Trade in 2020/21 (Oct/Sep) raised marginally on higher than earlier anticipated shipments by Brazil and the US.
  • Stocks (2020/21 carry-out) adjusted upwards, reflecting a higher forecast for Brazil, although global closing inventories are still seen dropping to a seven-year low.

INDICATORS

Events

10th session of the AMIS Rapid Response Forum
21 Apr 2021
Videoconference
Global Grain Geneva
17 Nov 2020 to 19 Nov 2020
Online conference

COUNTRY DATA