last release: November 2015
The crop condition map, kindly provided by the GEO Global Agricultural Monitoring initiative (GEOGLAM), synthesizes information for all four AMIS crops in major growing areas. Assessments are based on a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are displayed on the map with their crop symbol.
- Wheat: In the northern hemisphere the spring wheat season is complete and planting of winter wheat is ongoing under mostly favourable conditions with the exception of the Russian Federation and Ukraine where there is concern over dry conditions. In the southern hemisphere, conditions remain mixed. In Australia, conditions deteriorated due to lack of rains. In Argentina, conditions are generally favourable and in Brazil, mixed weather during all the season is expected to negatively impact yields. In South Africa, conditions are poor.
- Maize: Conditions in the northern hemisphere remain mixed as the season nears its end. In the US, harvest is almost complete and yields are good. In the EU, conditions are largely unfavourable due to the earlier summer heatwave and lack of rain. In Ukraine, yields are expected to be down due to earlier dry and hot weather. In India there is some concern due to dryness. In Mexico, Canada, the Russian Federation and Nigeria, conditions are mostly favourable. In the southern hemisphere planting is ongoing and conditions are mostly favourable though there are some areas of concern. In Brazil, there is concern over irregular rains. In Argentina, planting is progressing slowly due to low soil moisture and there is some concern over low temperatures. In South Africa, there are concerns over hot and dry conditions.
- Rice - Conditions remain mixed in part due to El Niño. In India, conditions are mixed due to dryness and in Thailand, conditions are poor due to a lack of precipitation, shortage of irrigation water and pests. In the Philippines there is some concern due to recent typhoons. In China, Viet Nam, Indonesia, the US and Argentina conditions are generally favourable. In Brazil, conditions are mixed.
- Soybeans: Conditions in the northern hemisphere remain mostly favourable as harvest begins. In the US, near record yields are expected. In India, there is some concern due to moisture stress. In China and Canada, conditions are generally favourable. In the southern hemisphere, conditions are mostly favourable. In Brazil, conditions are generally favourable as planting progresses, though there is limited concern due to irregular rainfall. In Nigeria, average to above average production is expected.
El Niño update
The current strong El Niño is forecast to peak around the beginning of 2016, to remain strong throughout the southern hemisphere summer season, and to dissipate finally by mid-year. This portends a second year of drought in South Africa. Dry conditions are likewise expected to continue in Thailand, Viet Nam, the Philippines, and Indonesia. September rainfall was below average for most of Australia, and El Niño brings suppressed spring (October-December) rainfall in the eastern half of the country.
In contrast, abundant rainfall is forecast for the summer growing season of southern Brazil and northeastern Argentina. Wetter than average conditions are also forecast for the winter precipitation season in the high mountain areas of India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Tajikistan, building up snow pack for the 2016 summer irrigation season. In North America, expectations are for warmer than average temperatures across Canada and the northern US, and wetter than average conditions across the southern half of the US – nurturing hope for drought relief in California. Meanwhile, humanitarian agencies are mobilizing to deal with major El Niño food security impacts due to drought in Guatemala, Haiti, Malawi, and Ethiopia.