last release: October 2015
The crop condition map, kindly provided by the GEO Global Agricultural Monitoring initiative (GEOGLAM), synthesizes information for all four AMIS crops in major growing areas. Assessments are based on a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are displayed on the map with their crop symbol.
- Wheat: In the northern hemisphere, overall conditions are favourable as the spring wheat season draws to a close and winter wheat planting begins. For spring wheat, conditions are favourable in Kazakhstan and Russia, where as conditions are mixed in Canada. For winter wheat, conditions are mostly favourable in the US and Russia, whereas there is some concern in the EU and Ukraine. In the southern hemisphere, conditions are mixed. In Australia, conditions marginally deteriorated in most states. In Argentina, conditions are generally favourable and in Brazil and South Africa, there is some concern.
- Maize: In the northern hemisphere, conditions are mixed. In the US and China, conditions are overall favourable. In the EU conditions are largely unfavorable due to a heat wave and dryness. In Ukraine there is concern over dry conditions. In India, there is some concern in northern regions due to dryness. In Mexico, Canada, the Russian Federation, and Nigeria, conditions are generally favourable. In the southern hemisphere planting has begun. In Brazil conditions are favourable and there is some concern over low soil moisture in parts of Argentina as well as in South Africa.
- Rice: Conditions remain mixed though in some areas they have improved owing to recent rains. In India conditions are close to average and in Thailand, conditions remain mixed due to lack of precipitation. In China conditions are favourable In Viet Nam, conditions improved and the wet season crops are in favourable condition. In Indonesia, the dry season crop is generally in favourable condition except in southern regions and in the Philippines, harvest of the wet season crop is almost complete and conditions are mixed.
- Soybeans: In the northern hemisphere, conditions remain mostly favourable as harvest begins. In the US and Canada, harvest has begun and conditions are favourable. In China, conditions are generally favourable and in India, there is concern over moisture stress. In the southern hemisphere, conditions are favourable in Brazil at this early stage of the season.
El Niño update
The current El Niño is forecast to remain in the strong category through the end of the southern hemisphere growing season and into early northern hemisphere summer 2016. This strength means that the forecast rainfall and temperature anomalies associated with the El Niño event have high probabilities of occurrence. Drier than average conditions are forecast to continue in Thailand, Viet Nam, the Philippines, and Indonesia. They are also expected to persist across Central America and in northern areas of South America. A dry growing season in Southern Africa is associated with El Niño, and in Australia, El Niño brings suppressed spring (October-December) rainfall in the eastern half of the country, and above-average temperatures in the south and the east for October-March. Wetter than average conditions are forecast for the summer growing season of southern Brazil and northeastern Argentina, and for the winter precipitation season in countries of Central-Southwest Asia (Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Iran), building up snow pack for good irrigation in the summer of 2016. During the upcoming winter season in North America, expectations are for warmer than average temperatures across Canada and the northern US, and wetter than average conditions across the southern half of the US. If this El Niño follows similar historic patterns, it may make a transition quickly to La Niña, which will bring new patterns of anomalous rainfall and temperature, many of which are opposite to those of El Niño.