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AMIS Market Monitor

last release: December 2020

Supply & Demand

2019/20

2020/21 

estimate

5 Nov

3 Dec

Production

339.4

368.0

366.4

Supply

402.6

424.7

423.0

Utilization

360.3

369.8

373.0

Trade

169.1

166.9

168.2

Ending Stocks

56.9

54.4

49.4

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2020/21 production trimmed slightly m/m; global output is still expected to reach a historic record.
  • Utilization forecast for 2020/21 lifted, now pointing to a y/y expansion in global consumption of 3.5 percent.   
  • Trade in 2020/21 (Oct/Sept) raised somewhat, as stronger import demand from the EU and a number of smaller countries is seen outweighing a lower (though still record-high) forecast for China; world trade is now projected to contract fractionally y/y.   
  • Inventories (2020/21 carry-out) scaled down further, mainly reflecting downward revisions for the US, China and Argentina; with the latest revisions, global ending stocks would fall to a seven-year low.