last release: July 2019
Supply & Demand
2018/19 | 2019/20 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
estimate | 6 Jun | 4 Jul | |
Production | 364.8 | 361.3 | 358.3 |
Supply | 409.5 | 422.4 | 421.7 |
Utilization | 349.9 | 361.5 | 359.0 |
Trade | 147.0 | 149.0 | 148.5 |
Ending Stocks | 63.4 | 59.9 | 60.8 |
in million tonnes | |||
- Soybean 2019/20 production forecast lowered, pointing to a modest y/y drop, with downward adjustments this month for the US and Argentina only partially offset by upward revisions for Brazil.
- Utilization in 2019/20 trimmed somewhat, but still expected to expand in 2019/20 after a stagnation in 2018/19; consumption prospects in China and Argentina reduced since last month.
- Trade forecast for 2019/20 lowered marginally on expectation of smaller purchases by China; but growth in world trade still projected to resume after the 2018/19 decline.
- Stocks (2019/20 carry-out) raised slightly, with upward corrections for China more than offsetting lower forecasts for Argentina and the US; while falling somewhat, global carry-out is seen remaining at historically high level in 2019/20.