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AMIS Market Monitor

last release: Sep 2017

Supply & Demand

2016/17

2017/18 forecast

estimate

6 July

7 Sep

Production

349.0

342.4

347.6

Supply

393.6

398.1

402.0

Utilization

336.5

346.4

347.4

Trade

145.9

149.0

150.3 

Ending Stocks

54.4

51.5

52.8

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2017/18 production raised by 5.2 million tonnes, to now a near record level, following upward revisions for Brazil and the US more than offsetting lower forecasts in Argentina and India. 
  • Utilization virtually unchanged from the last forecast, confirming a below-average y/y growth of 3.5 percent.
  • Trade forecast for 2017/18 revised further upwards, primarily reflecting higher export availabilities in the US.
  • Stocks (2017/18 carry-out) lifted, based primarily on higher forecasts for Brazil. Global inventories are now forecast to drop only 1.5 million tonnes from last season’s all-time record.