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AMIS Market Monitor

last release: April 2018

Supply & Demand

2016/17

2017/18 

estimate

1 Mar

5 Apr

Production

348.8

345.2

336.8

Supply

393.1

396.9

388.2

Utilization

341.3

351.4

349.1

Trade

149.2

153.2

154.0

Ending Stocks

51.4

47.3

42.0

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2017/18 production forecast lowered significantly, mostly reflecting a sharp downward revision for Argentina. 
  • Utilization in 2017/18 slightly down compared to last month, shaped by lower crushing forecasts for several countries, notably Argentina and Brazil.
  • Trade forecast for 2017/18 broadly unchanged, with higher exports by Brazil expected to compensate for lower shipments from Argentina and Uruguay. 
  • Stocks forecast (2017/18 carry-out) down sharply m/m and now pointing to a four-year low. Compared to last month, sharp downward revisions for Argentina and Brazil are only partially compensated by moderate upward adjustments in the US.