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AMIS Market Monitor

last release: October 2020

Supply & Demand

2019/20

2020/21 

estimate

3 Sep

8 Oct

Production

339.3

374.9

370.8

Supply

402.6

425.6

428.3

Utilization

356.0

370.3

369.5

Trade

165.1

163.7

165.8

Ending Stocks

57.8

53.0

58.0

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2020/21 production lowered from last month, with reduced forecasts for the US and Argentina outweighing an upward revision for Brazil, while global output would still be record-high.
  • Utilization in 2020/21 trimmed somewhat, with downward adjustments for Argentina and the EU largely offset by higher forecasts for the US and several other countries; global consumption now forecast to grow by nearly 4 percent y/y.
  • Trade in 2020/21 (Oct/Sept) slightly higher compared to September, as import forecasts are lifted for China and a couple of other countries, while shipments are raised primarily for Brazil.
  • Inventories (2020/21 carry-out) scaled up, mainly reflecting higher forecasts for China, Argentina and Brazil, which overshadow a downward revision for the US.