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AMIS Market Monitor

last release: July 2019

Supply & Demand

2018/19

2019/20 

estimate

6 Jun

4 Jul

Production

364.8

361.3

358.3

Supply

409.5

422.4

421.7

Utilization

349.9

361.5

359.0

Trade

147.0

149.0

148.5

Ending Stocks

63.4

59.9

60.8

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2019/20 production forecast lowered, pointing to a modest y/y drop, with downward adjustments this month for the US and Argentina only partially offset by upward revisions for Brazil.
  • Utilization in 2019/20 trimmed somewhat, but still expected to expand in 2019/20 after a stagnation in 2018/19; consumption prospects in China and Argentina reduced since last month.
  • Trade forecast for 2019/20 lowered marginally on expectation of smaller purchases by China; but growth in world trade still projected to resume after the 2018/19 decline. 
  • Stocks (2019/20 carry-out) raised slightly, with upward corrections for China more than offsetting lower forecasts for Argentina and the US; while falling somewhat, global carry-out is seen remaining at historically high level in 2019/20.