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AMIS Market Monitor

last release: July 2018

Supply & Demand

2017/18

2018/19 forecast

estimate

7 Jun

5 Jul

Production

504.6 

511.3

511.4

Supply

673.6

682.4

685.2

Utilization

504.3

509.3

509.5

Trade

47.8

47.4

47.5

Ending Stocks

171.1

173.8

173.7

in million tonnes

  • Rice production forecast for 2018 essentially unchanged m/m, as a downgraded estimate for Australia offset small upward revisions for South American countries, namely Brazil.
  • Utilization in 2018/19 to expand by 1.0 percent, with per capita food consumption seen posting a small y/y increase.
  • Trade in 2018 and 2019 still envisaged to remain close to the 2017 all-time record, on continued strong import demand.
  • Stocks (ending in 2019) little varied m/m, as slightly lower forecasts for Australia and Brazil outweigh an increase to carryover forecasts, mainly for the Philippines.