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AMIS Market Monitor

last release: October 2020

Supply & Demand

2019/20

2020/21 

estimate

3 Sep

8 Oct

Production

501.3

509.2

509.1

Supply

685.9

692.3

691.4

Utilization

502.8

511.0

510.5

Trade

44.0

47.1

47.1

Ending Stocks

182.4

181.2

182.0

in million tonnes

  • Rice production in 2020 unchanged m/m, as an upward revision for India, in particular, is offset by various downgrades, the most significant of which concerning Thailand.
  • Utilization in 2020/21 still seen expanding by 1.5 percent y/y to a fresh peak, despite a slight downward revision largely attributable to lower anticipated uses in Indonesia.
  • Trade in 2021 unchanged m/m, as downscaled export prospects for Pakistan, Thailand and Viet Nam are compensated by an upgrade to Indian shipments to a record high.
  • Stocks (2020/21 carry-out) lifted somewhat on higher anticipated carry-overs in the major exporters (India, in particular); as a result, closing stocks are now seen essentially on par with their opening levels.