As the new season (2018/19) begins, early indications for AMIS crops point to an overall balanced outlook at the global level. Wheat and rice markets are projected to remain adequately supplied while maize is expected to experience somewhat tighter market conditions. The first forecasts for soybeans point to a tightening but still comfortable situation as world production of soybeans climbs to a new high. Weather will be critical in the coming months but other factors, including variations in exchange rates, high oil prices and trade policy uncertainties are equally important.