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AMIS Market Monitor

last release: Sep 2017

International Prices

While some price support continued to come from concerns about potentially tight supplies of higher grade milling wheats, especially in North America, this was overshadowed by increasing confidence that overall world wheat availabilities would remain heavy. Escalating expectations for harvests in the Black Sea region were a particularly bearish influence, with many forecasts for Russia’s crop rising above a record 80 million tonnes. While potential logistical constraints for Black Sea exports were highlighted, traders at other origins anticipated strong competition. Amid competitive prices, the Russian Federation was generally seen likely to be the world’s largest wheat exporter in 2017/18. With declines accelerating from mid-month, the IGC GOI wheat sub-Index fell by 9 percent m/m, but remained some 12 percent higher y/y.