Analyses


Over the past ten years, the increase in ethanol production in the United States has changed market dynamics in maize and related grain markets, which may impact prices and availability for more traditional grain uses such as food and feed. This paper, kindly prepared by the United States Department of Agriculture for AMIS, explores potential indicators to monitor profitability of ethanol production from maize. (February 2014) Read more

Since 2000, global production of ethanol, the most widely used transport renewable fuel, more than quadrupled, reaching in 2011 a total of 84.6 billion litres. This paper examines the nature of the relationship between crude oil, ethanol and the prices of maize, wheat and rice. (December 2013) Read more

Structural change in the agricultural futures markets?

The tide of financial flows into commodities markets, seemingly unstoppable over the past decade, appears to be ebbing. (October 2013) Read more

Stocks-to-use ratios as indicators of vulnerability to spikes in global cereal markets

This paper addresses the challenge of how best to utilize available global information in order to strengthen global capacity to issue early warnings of possible price volatility, and thus enhance food security and emergency policy responses to threats to food security. (October 2012) Read more

Futures markets signal change: Interpreting price behaviour

Greater understanding of global markets is one of the main objectives of AMIS. For this reason, identifying indicators which can signal changing market conditions on a timely basis will be among its first outputs. This section briefly describes two indicators, commonly used by participants in the futures and cash markets, which are relevant to importers and exporters. (November 2011) Read more

Review of changes in domestic cereal prices during the global price spikes

During the periods of global food crisis and price spikes that have occurred since mid-2007, there have been reports of widespread price rises across the world. Changes in domestic prices are determined by a number of factors, one of them being prices in the world markets. (November 2011) Read more