last release: 7 March 2024
Markets at a glance
From previous month forecast |
From previous season |
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Wheat |
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Maize |
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Rice |
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Soybeans |
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Easing | Neutral | Tightening |
In February 2024, food commodity markets continued to sustain their relative calmness, despite the presence of external shocks including shipping disruptions and farmers’ protests in several countries. Wheat, maize and soybean export prices declined further, reaching their lowest levels over the past two years. While rice prices eased as Lunar New Year Holidays curtailed trade in some parts of the world, they remained almost a third higher than their levels a year ago. Following record-breaking temperatures in January reflecting the influences of the strong 2023-2024 El Niño event and the impacts of climate change, February was also exceptionally warm, speeding up crop development in many parts. Winter wheat crops in the northern hemisphere are beginning to break dormancy, while harvesting of maize and soybeans continued in the southern hemisphere.
2022/23 | 2023/24 | ||
---|---|---|---|
estimate | 1 Feb | 7 Mar | |
Production | 805.6 | 788.5 | 787.3 |
Supply | 1104.9 | 1111.3 | 1110.1 |
Utilization | 779.2 | 794.3 | 793.3 |
Trade | 199.9 | 197.4 | 197.5 |
Ending Stocks | 323.2 | 319.7 | 318.9 |
in million tonnes |
- Wheat production in 2023 now stands 2.3 percent below 2022 level following a revision this month largely on lower estimate in India.
- Utilization in 2023/24 also lowered m/m, mostly for other uses, but still set to increase by 1.8 percent above the 2022/23 level led by strong growth in feed use.
- Trade in 2023/24 (July/June) nearly unchanged and still headed for a 1.2 percent decrease from the 2022/23 level with smaller shipments from Australia and weaker demand from China, EU, and Türkiye.
- Stocks (ending in 2024) forecast trimmed, reflecting lower stocks in India due to lower production, and set to decline by 1.3 percent below opening levels.
2022/23 | 2023/24 | ||
---|---|---|---|
estimate | 1 Feb | 7 Mar | |
Production | 1171.3 | 1229.4 | 1233.0 |
Supply | 1477.8 | 1513.9 | 1517.1 |
Utilization | 1189.1 | 1205.5 | 1206.3 |
Trade | 183.2 | 186.1 | 189.2 |
Ending Stocks | 285.5 | 315.2 | 317.2 |
in million tonnes |
- Maize 2023 production raised m/m, mostly on a higher estimate for Ukraine, and now 5.3 percent above the 2022 level.
- Utilization in 2023/24 scaled up slightly this month on higher feed use, especially in Algeria and India, and now standing 1.4 percent above 2022/23 level.
- Trade in 2023/24 (July/June) set to increase by 3.3 percent from 2022/23 following an upward revision on further upgrades for demand from China and exports from Ukraine.
- Stocks (ending in 2024) lifted m/m, mostly reflecting larger inventories seen in China, and reaching 11.1 percent above opening levels.
2022/23 | 2023/24 | ||
---|---|---|---|
estimate | 1 Feb | 7 Mar | |
Production | 524.0 | 524.6 | 526.2 |
Supply | 720.7 | 721.3 | 722.5 |
Utilization | 524.9 | 522.2 | 523.7 |
Trade | 52.8 | 51.5 | 51.4 |
Ending Stocks | 196.3 | 198.8 | 198.7 |
in million tonnes |
- Rice production in 2022/23 and 2023/24 raised following revisions to India’s output figures, which overshadowed some minor downward adjustments, namely for Colombia and Myanmar.
- Utilization in 2023/24 upgraded largely on account of India, but still seen registering little to negative growth for the second consecutive season.
- Trade in 2024 essentially unchanged m/m, as somewhat less buoyant export expectations, namely for Thailand, are compensated by upgrades, chiefly to Vietnamese shipments.
- Stocks (2023/24 carry-out) still seen rising to a record high, but with accumulations occurring in exporting countries (mostly India), while aggregate reserves held by importers fall for the third successive season.
2022/23 | 2023/24 | ||
---|---|---|---|
estimate | 1 Feb | 7 Mar | |
Production | 374.6 | 395.5 | 392.3 |
Supply | 419.7 | 438.8 | 436.6 |
Utilization | 367.2 | 388.6 | 387.3 |
Trade | 171.6 | 168.2 | 167.1 |
Ending Stocks | 44.3 | 49.0 | 48.7 |
in million tonnes |
- Soybean 2023/24 production trimmed, primarily reflecting a further downward revision for Brazil, while the forecast for Argentina was also reduced somewhat due to unfavourable dry conditions.
- Utilization in 2023/24 lowered across a number of countries amid reduced supplies, yet the global consumption is still expected to expand by 5.5 percent from the previous season.
- Trade in 2023/24 (Oct/Sep) scaled down marginally on smaller export forecasts for Brazil and the US, while import expectations were lowered for China and the Russian Federation.
- Stocks (2023/24 carry-out) virtually unchanged, as downward revisions for Brazil and the Russian Federation were mostly compensated by expected stock accumulation in the US.