02 Jun 2022
Despite record nominal prices, FAO-AMIS expects global production for maize and wheat to fall in 2022. With outputs likely being lower than last year in Australia, [...]
20 May 2022
Joint statement of the outgoing and incoming AMIS Chairs: Adriana Herrera of Mexico and Seth Meyer of the United States. (download as pdf) With the war [...]
10 May 2022
Joseph Glauber will serve as interim Secretary of the Agricultural Market Information System following the retirement of Abdolreza Abbassian in January. Glauber is currently a [...]
15 Apr 2022
The overall surge in agricultural commodity prices observed over the last year, coupled with uncertainties arising from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have revived the threat of [...]

last release: June 2022

Markets at a glance

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

N/A

Maize

N/A

Rice

N/A

Soybeans

N/A

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

Despite record nominal prices, FAO-AMIS expects global production for maize and wheat to fall in 2022 as the loss of production in Ukraine might not be offset by the rest of the world. This will likely keep upward pressure on prices, with potentially devastating effects on the global poor. Trade restrictions also remain a concern. At the end of May, 23 countries have implemented export restrictions ranging from outright bans to export taxes affecting almost 18 percent of agricultural exports, on a kilocalorie basis. In this context, AMIS calls on all countries to refrain from implementing trade restrictions, which will prolong the uncertainty in markets and threaten the most vulnerable around the globe.

2021/22

2022/23

estimate

2 Jun

Production

776.8

770.8

Supply

1068.2

1067.4

Utilization

771.7

768.6

Trade

192.1

188.9

Ending Stocks

296.5

297.8

in million tonnes

  • Wheat production in 2022 is forecast to decline for the first time in four years, down 0.8 percent from the 2021 record.
  • Utilization is seen falling in 2022/23, down 0.4 percent from 2021/22, led by a decline in feed use and, to a lesser extent, industrial use.
  • Trade in 2022/23 (July/June) is set to contract from the 2021/22 record, mainly reflecting lower exports from Ukraine as well as Argentina, Australia, and India.
  • Stocks (ending in 2023) forecast to rise marginally above opening levels, with increases mostly in China, Russia, and Ukraine outweighing anticipated stock drawdowns in several countries in Africa and Asia.

2021/22

2022/23

estimate

2 Jun

Production

1206.7

1187.8

Supply

1493.8

1491.5

Utilization

1194.8

1189.7

Trade

180.8

174.2

Ending Stocks

303.7

300.3

in million tonnes

  • Maize production in 2022 is forecast to decline, down 1.6 percent from the 2021 record, led by smaller outputs in Ukraine and in the US.
  • Utilization in 2022/23 set to contract by 0.4 percent, almost entirely reflecting lower feed use, especially in Canada, the EU, and the US.
  • Trade is forecast to fall in 2022/23 (July/June), driven by an expected steep fall in exports from Ukraine, as well as lower export availability in Argentina and the US.
  • Stocks (ending 2023) are forecast to decline, down 1.1 percent below opening levels, with the largest drawdowns expected in China and the US.

2021/22

2022/23

estimate

2 Jun

Production

520.8

519.5

Supply

712.3

711.8

Utilization

521.0

522.0

Trade

53.1

53.9

Ending Stocks

192.4

191.6

in million tonnes

  • Rice production in 2022 forecast to be just short of the 2021 all-time high, with an abundant Asian harvest and larger crops in Africa and Australia largely compensating for shortfalls elsewhere.
  • Utilization in 2022/23 seen little changed from the 2021/22 peak, as continued growth in food intake is largely counterbalanced by a cut in non-food uses.
  • Trade in 2022 and 2023 predicted to remain on an expansionary trend, although reduced import demand from the Far East to decelerate growth.
  • Stocks (2022/23 carry-out) seen at their second highest on record, as expected drawdowns, notably in Brazil, Myanmar and Thailand, are mostly offset by accumulations in China and India.

2021/22

2022/23

estimate

2 Jun

Production

348.8

390.4

Supply

399.6

430.2

Utilization

365.9

377.8

Trade

155.2

166.7

Ending Stocks

39.8

51.0

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2022/23 production could rise to a record high, mainly tied to a sharp rebound in productivity levels in Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay, as well as area expansions in China and the US.
  • Utilization in 2022/23 to recover moderately from an exceptional contraction estimated for 2021/22, underpinned by consumption growth in China and uptake recoveries in South America.
  • Trade in 2022/23 (Oct/Sep) likely to rebound markedly, largely driven by a forecasted import recovery in China, while major South American exporters are expected to regain market shares.
  • Stocks (2022/23 carry-out) to replenish from multi-year lows estimated for 2021/22, although the global stocks-to-use ratio would remain below the 5-year average.

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