This year has been eventful in many ways for most agricultural commodities; beyond the usual supply and demand factors shaping markets there has been an increasing level of uncertainty stemming from unexpected shifts in trade policies. Among the AMIS crops, maize and soybeans have been at the forefront of these policy changes, while global wheat and rice markets have been little affected. The other important feature, also central to the work of AMIS, is the recent revelation of drastically higher cereal production levels in China with potentially important implications, which is the main focus of this month’s editorial.

• Maize production forecast down marginally m/m with lower anticipated harvests in the Russian Federation and the US more than offsetting a significant upward revision in Ukraine.
• Utilization in 2018/19 scaled down on cuts in feed use in the US and the Russian Federation more than offsetting a raise in the EU.
• Trade in 2018/19 (July/June) lifted, supported by stronger import demand by several countries; exports from Ukraine much higher than earlier anticipated on the back of record production.
• Stocks (ending in 2019) unchanged from last month and still 14 percent below their record opening levels; the biggest decreases are expected in China, South America and the US.

• Rice production in 2018 only fractionally changed m/m, as a reduction for Madagascar is largely outweighed by improved prospects for a few Latin American countries.
• Utilization forecast for 2018/19 trimmed, reflecting less buoyant use prospects for Brazil and African countries, namely Nigeria.
• Trade in 2019 forecast to edge down by 1.4 percent y/y, as lower imports by Bangladesh, China and Indonesia more than offset larger purchases by Egypt, Nigeria and the Philippines
• Stocks (2018/19 carry-out) still seen expanding by 2.7 percent to an all-time high.

• Soybean 2018/19 production trimmed marginally, with reductions in the US and the Russian Federation only partially offset by higher forecasts for Argentina.
• Utilization in 2018/19 reduced somewhat, mainly reflecting lower than earlier anticipated forecasts for Brazil, following a brisk export path, as well as China, tied to weakening demand for meal.
• Trade forecast for 2018/19 revised down slightly, underpinned by smaller than earlier expected imports by China.
• Stocks (2018/19 carry-out) raised further, with upward revision in the US outweighing reductions in other countries. Global inventories now forecast to climb by more than one-third y/y.