Markets at a glance

Despite record nominal prices, FAO-AMIS expects global production for maize and wheat to fall in 2022 as the loss of production in Ukraine might not be offset by the rest of the world. This will likely keep upward pressure on prices, with potentially devastating effects on the global poor. Trade restrictions also remain a concern. At the end of May, 23 countries have implemented export restrictions ranging from outright bans to export taxes affecting almost 18 percent of agricultural exports, on a kilocalorie basis. In this context, AMIS calls on all countries to refrain from implementing trade restrictions, which will prolong the uncertainty in markets and threaten the most vulnerable around the globe.

• Wheat production in 2022 is forecast to decline for the first time in four years, down 0.8 percent from the 2021 record.
• Utilization is seen falling in 2022/23, down 0.4 percent from 2021/22, led by a decline in feed use and, to a lesser extent, industrial use.
• Trade in 2022/23 (July/June) is set to contract from the 2021/22 record, mainly reflecting lower exports from Ukraine as well as Argentina, Australia, and India.
• Stocks (ending in 2023) forecast to rise marginally above opening levels, with increases mostly in China, Russia, and Ukraine outweighing anticipated stock drawdowns in several countries in Africa and Asia.

• Maize production in 2022 is forecast to decline, down 1.6 percent from the 2021 record, led by smaller outputs in Ukraine and in the US.
• Utilization in 2022/23 set to contract by 0.4 percent, almost entirely reflecting lower feed use, especially in Canada, the EU, and the US.
• Trade is forecast to fall in 2022/23 (July/June), driven by an expected steep fall in exports from Ukraine, as well as lower export availability in Argentina and the US.
• Stocks (ending 2023) are forecast to decline, down 1.1 percent below opening levels, with the largest drawdowns expected in China and the US.

• Rice production in 2022 forecast to be just short of the 2021 all-time high, with an abundant Asian harvest and larger crops in Africa and Australia largely compensating for shortfalls elsewhere.
• Utilization in 2022/23 seen little changed from the 2021/22 peak, as continued growth in food intake is largely counterbalanced by a cut in non-food uses.
• Trade in 2022 and 2023 predicted to remain on an expansionary trend, although reduced import demand from the Far East to decelerate growth.
• Stocks (2022/23 carry-out) seen at their second highest on record, as expected drawdowns, notably in Brazil, Myanmar and Thailand, are mostly offset by accumulations in China and India.

• Soybean 2022/23 production could rise to a record high, mainly tied to a sharp rebound in productivity levels in Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay, as well as area expansions in China and the US.
• Utilization in 2022/23 to recover moderately from an exceptional contraction estimated for 2021/22, underpinned by consumption growth in China and uptake recoveries in South America.
• Trade in 2022/23 (Oct/Sep) likely to rebound markedly, largely driven by a forecasted import recovery in China, while major South American exporters are expected to regain market shares.
• Stocks (2022/23 carry-out) to replenish from multi-year lows estimated for 2021/22, although the global stocks-to-use ratio would remain below the 5-year average.