04 Mar 2021
Production forecasts for all AMIS crops have been scaled up since last month. However, continued brisk trade activity and strong demand have kept international prices [...]
(c) Wikimedia
(c) Wikimedia
24 Feb 2021
After decades of progress, hunger has been on the rise in recent years. Amidst a growing number of conflicts, accelerating climate change and economic slowdowns [...]
(c) OECD
(c) OECD
07 Dec 2020
Early in the COVID-19 outbreak, there were concerns that the health crisis would develop into a large-scale food crisis similar to the 2007-08 food price [...]
(c) G20
(c) G20
01 Dec 2020
The Italian G20 Presidency started today, 1 December 2020. Over the course of a year, Italy will host a large number of institutional meetings and [...]

last release: March 2021

Market Monitor

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

Production forecasts for all AMIS crops have been scaled up since last month. However, continued brisk trade activity and strong demand have kept international prices generally elevated near their January highs. With maize production estimates for 2020/21 becoming firmer, the focus is shifting to wheat production prospects for the 2021/22 season. Early forecasts suggest a modest year-on-year increase in global wheat production, with a strong rebound in output in the EU and a possible record crop in India outweighing production drops in Australia and the Russian Federation.

2019/20

2020/21 

estimate

4 Feb

4 Mar

Production

760.7

766.5

774.0

Supply

1032.7

1043.6

1050.9

Utilization

750.9

756.1

754.5

Trade

184.3

184.5

186.6

Ending Stocks

276.9

284.3

292.0

in million tonnes

  • Wheat 2020 production lifted further on upward revisions for Australia, the EU, Kazakhstan, and the Russian Federation, boosting global production up by 1.7 percent year-on-year (y/y) to a new record.
  • Utilization in 2020/21 still up y/y but trimmed this month, mostly on further downgrades to feed wheat usage in the EU due to high prices relative to other feed grains.
  • Trade in 2020/21 (July/June) set to surpass the 2019/20 level by 1.2 percent with larger-than-earlier anticipated import prospects in China and Turkey.
  • Stocks (ending in 2021) scaled up further this month, resulting in global inventories to increase by as much as 5.4 percent y/y to a new record.

2019/20

2020/21 

estimate

4 Feb

4 Mar

Production

1138.5

1148.3

1152.8

Supply

1462.4

1450.0

1454.5

Utilization

1158.2

1179.4

1179.8

Trade

174.3

190.1

187.1

Ending Stocks

301.7

273.1

275.7

in million tonnes

  • Maize production estimate for 2020 raised further this month on bigger than earlier anticipated outputs in the EU, Ukraine, and several countries in Sub-Sahara Africa, in particular Ghana.
  • Utilization in 2020/21 to reach an all-time high supported by 1.5 percent y/y growth in total feed use driven by stronger demand in China, Argentina, Mexico and Brazil.
  • Trade forecast for 2020/21 (July/June) lowered by 3 million tonnes following downward adjustments to imports by the EU, followed by cuts in deliveries also in the Republic of Korea and Saudi Arabia.
  • Stocks (ending in 2021) scaled up since last month but still pointing to a significant fall from the previous season, largely due to sharp drawdowns in China, the US and the EU.

2019/20

2020/21 

estimate

4 Feb

4 Mar

Production

502.8

510.6

513.2

Supply

688.2

692.5

695.4

Utilization

504.2

512.1

514.4

Trade

45.1

48.4

48.2

Ending Stocks

182.2

181.9

182.5

in million tonnes

  • Rice production in 2020 upgraded on higher expectations for production in India and, to a lesser extent, Tanzania and Iran.
  • Utilization in 2020/21 scaled up, resulting in global per caput food intake rising by 1.0 percent y/y.
  • Trade in 2021 (January-December) largely unchanged m/m and forecast to stage a 7.0 percent y/y expansion to a three-year high.
  • Stocks (2020/21 carry-out) raised slightly and still seen at their second highest volume on record, with India behind much of this month’s upward revision.

2019/20

2020/21 

estimate

4 Feb

4 Mar

Production

338.2

362.2

363.6

Supply

401.4

416.6

418.1

Utilization

360.2

373.5

375.1

Trade

169.0

169.8

169.7

Ending Stocks

54.8

43.1

42.6

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2020/21 production raised marginally on upward adjustments for South American producers following improved weather conditions, thus confirming a strong y/y increase in global output.
  • Utilization in 2020/21 lifted slightly, mainly reflecting higher forecasts for the US and China (both on robust domestic crush demand) as well as Argentina (tied to higher production forecasts).
  • Trade in 2020/21 (Oct/Sep) virtually unchanged, with yet another upward correction of China’s import forecast offset by expectations of lower purchases in the EU.
  • Stocks (2020/21 carry-out) lowered again on a bigger drawdown than-earlier-anticipated in the US, driving global inventories down by almost one quarter y/y to a 7-year low.

INDICATORS

Events

Global Grain Geneva
17 Nov 2020 to 19 Nov 2020
Online conference

COUNTRY DATA