Weather, policy and animal diseases are emerging as important market drivers, making the 2019/20 season, one of the most volatile in recent years. The unfavourable weather gripping the US has jeopardised production prospects namely for maize and soybeans, adding to the uncertainty generated by ongoing trade frictions and related compensatory measures for US farmers. In the meantime, the rapid spread of African Swine Fever in China, the world’s largest pork producer and consumer of feed stuffs, is expected to have major implications for international trade flows.

• Wheat production forecast for 2019 raised on better prospects in the EU and Canada more than offsetting downward adjustments in Australia and Turkey.
• Utilization in 2019/20 trimmed slightly on lower feed use of wheat in the EU but still up 1.2 percent from 2018/19.
• Trade in 2019/20 (July/June) pointing to a modest recovery, a rise of 3.3 percent from 2018/19, underpinned by significant increases in exports from Australia and the EU.
• Stocks (ending in 2020) projected to increase to a near-record level, largely on higher inventories in China and the EU.

• Maize production forecast for 2019 cut by 38 million tonnes m/m largely on expectation of a sharp fall in plantings and hence production in the US, now projected at 330 million tonnes, down 45 million tonnes m/m and 36 million tonnes y/y.
• Utilization in 2019/20 also lowered mostly on expectation of reduced feed and industrial use in the US.
• Trade forecast for 2019/20 (July/June) raised slightly but still falling short of the previous two seasons’ levels, with export prospects from the US trimmed in part due to tighter domestic supplies.
• Stocks (ending in 2019) cut significantly with most of the decrease in the US where stocks could drop to a seven year low of 28 million tonnes.

• Rice production in 2019 barely changed m/m and still envisaged to remain close to the 2018 all-time record.
• Utilization in 2019/20 trimmed, but still seen at a fresh peak, with per capita food intake expanding by nearly 1.0 percent.
• Trade in 2019 broadly steady m/m and pointing to a 3.5 percent demand-driven contraction from 2018. Trade is tentatively projected to rebound in 2020.
• Stocks (2019/20 carry-out) raised marginally on higher anticipated inventories in the US and Viet Nam, but still predicted to fall 0.9 percent below their record opening levels.

• Soybean 2019/20 production could decline slightly from the 2018/19 all-time record, assuming a return to average yields and virtually unchanged plantings. Higher outputs in Brazil, Paraguay and China could be more than offset by a smaller crop in the US.
• Utilization in 2019/20 to continue expanding, but at a below-average rate given the expectation of subdued growth in China, largely linked to the African Swine Fever epidemic.
• Trade in 2019/20 projected to expand by a lower than average pace, mostly reflecting a timid recovery in China’s purchases.
• Global inventories (2019/20 carry-out) forecast to drop slightly from their record opening level, with US stocks remaining at their historic peak and replenishments in Brazil offsetting drawdowns in several countries.