Wikipedia
Wikipedia
11 Apr 2019
Freight markets slumped earlier this year as disappointing spot demand and concerns about weakening global economic growth dashed expectations for a strong start to the [...]
04 Apr 2019
The latest edition of the AMIS Market Monitor sees overall trends in world supply and demand for the four AMIS crops broadly unchanged from previous [...]
11 Mar 2019
FAO-AMIS foresees global wheat production to strongly recover from last year, rising by 4.0 percent, to 757.4 million tonnes in 2019. This would be close [...]
27 Feb 2019
A new data dashboard provides a quick overview of the global food market situation. Explore key indicators such as world production, utilization and stocks or [...]

last release: April 2019

Market Monitor

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

Overall trends in world supply and demand have remained broadly unchanged in March. While export availabilities for the four AMIS crops in 2018/19 seem largely adequate, the market attention is gradually shifting to the outlook for the next season. The March edition of the Monitor also presents revised supply and demand balances for China, following the country's release of new production estimates for the years 2007-2017, which have been accommodated by raising estimates for utilization and stocks.

 

 

2017/18

2018/19 

estimate

7 Mar

4 Apr

Production

759.9

728.3

730.9

Supply

1022.0

1003.6

1011.8

Utilization

739.5

741.8

748.1

Trade

176.8

171.0

170.5

Ending Stocks

280.9

264.7

267.0

in million tonnes

  • Wheat production in 2018 revised upward based on a new estimate for China, but still down 3.8 percent from the 2017 record mostly because of sharp projected reductions in Australia and the Russian Federation.
  • Utilization in 2018/19 raised on a higher estimate for China and the Russian Federation; up 1.2 percent from 2017/18, driven by firm demand in Asia.
  • Trade in 2018/19 (July/June) nearly unchanged m/m; down 3.6 percent from 2017/18 on lower anticipated shipments to several countries in North Africa as well as in Asia.
  • Stocks (ending in 2019) scaled up m/m but still down 14 million tonnes from the record opening, mostly on sharp expected drawdowns in the EU and the Russian Federation.

2017/18

2018/19 

estimate

7 Mar

4 Apr

Production

1137.5

1074.4

1117.2

Supply

1485.5

1381.8

1482.7

Utilization

1109.7

1111.7

1136.0

Trade

155.4

160.0

159.5

Ending Stocks

365.5

267.0

344.9

in million tonnes

  • Maize 2018 production lifted by 4.0 percent, primarily because of an upward revision in China, but still down 1.8 percent from the 2017 record.
  • Utilization in 2018/19 revised up, mostly reflecting adjustments to feed use estimates in China, and growing by 2.4 percent from 2017/18.
  • Trade in 2018/19 (July/June) nearly unchanged m/m and still pointing to a 2.7 percent expansion from 2017/18 supported by bigger purchases by the EU and several Asian countries.
  • Stocks (ending in 2019) scaled up significantly m/m following revisions in China and, to a lesser extent, in the EU, South Africa and the US.

2017/18

2018/19 

estimate

7 Mar

4 Apr

Production

509.5

514.9

516.4

Supply

679.4

687.4

690.9

Utilization

506.4

509.3

510.6

Trade

47.8

47.1

46.6

Ending Stocks

174.6

177.6

181.5

in million tonnes

  • Rice production estimate for 2018 raised, with a higher number for China only partially offsetting lower estimates for Thailand.
  • Trade in 2019 lowered m/m, with reduced shipments from India driving the adjustment; pointing to a 2.6 percent decline from 2018.
  • Utilization in 2018/19 to grow 0.8 percent catalysed by greater food intake.
  • Stocks (2018/19 carry-out) anticipated to expand 3.9 percent and revised up m/m based on higher carryover expansions in China and India.

2017/18

2018/19 

estimate

7 Mar

4 Apr

Production

341.7

361.5

360.6

Supply

398.7

402.6

401.6

Utilization

349.1

353.0

352.7

Trade

152.8

151.5

149.8

Ending Stocks

41.0

52.3

51.9

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2018/19 production forecast lowered slightly, with reduced forecasts for Brazil and other South American countries offset in part by higher estimates elsewhere.
  • Utilization in 2018/19 virtually unchanged m/m, as fresh downward revisions for China and other countries in Asia were mostly compensated by upward corrections in India.
  • Trade in 2018/19 trimmed further, tied to lower-than-earlier anticipated demand in China and other countries in Asia.
  • Stocks (2018/19 carry-out) scaled down for the third consecutive month, with lower forecasts for Argentina and the US only partly offset by upward revisions for Brazil.

INDICATORS

Events

8th session of the Rapid Response Forum
25 Feb 2019 to 26 Feb 2019
Geneva, Switzerland
13th session of the Global Food Market Information Group
03 May 2018 to 04 May 2018
Rome, Italy
7th session of the Rapid Response Forum
15 Mar 2018
Rosario, Argentina

COUNTRY DATA