As the new season (2018/19) begins, early indications for AMIS crops point to an overall balanced outlook at the global level. Wheat and rice markets are projected to remain adequately supplied while maize is expected to experience somewhat tighter market conditions. The first forecasts for soybeans point to a tightening but still comfortable situation as world production of soybeans climbs to a new high. Weather will be critical in the coming months but other factors, including variations in exchange rates, high oil prices and trade policy uncertainties are equally important.

• Wheat production forecast for 2018 raised but still below 2017 despite increases to forecasts for several major producers, including Argentina and India.
• Utilization to grow by 1.0 percent in 2018/19, supported by rises in feed and food use.
• Trade in 2018/19 (July/June) to exceed the 2017/18 record volume with higher sales from the EU, the Russian Federation and the US more than compensating for declines in exports from Argentina and Ukraine.
• Stocks (ending in 2019) to reach a new record, driven by build-ups in China and India.

• Maize production for 2018 is forecast to fall by 4.0 percent from last year’s record volume.
• Utilization in 2018/19 to rise by 2.0 percent on growing feed and industrial use; significantly higher feed use is projected for China, Latin America and the Russian Federation.
• Trade in 2018/19 (July/June) to increase by 1.1 percent, driven by higher import demand in Asia and continued large export availabilities.
• Stocks (ending in 2019) to plunge by 16 percent on drawdowns in China, Latin America and the US. Global stock estimates revised up sharply since the previous report following historical revisions to China’s maize utilization and stocks.

• Rice production in 2018 upgraded somewhat, mainly on improved prospects for India and, to a lesser extent, Brazil.
• Utilization in 2018/19 expected to expand by 1.0 percent y/y, mostly due to population growth in Asia and buoyant demand for rice in Africa.
• Trade in calendar 2018 and 2019 seen only slightly below the 2017 all-time high.
• Stocks (ending in 2019) raised, with India accounting for most of this revision.

• Soybean output could climb to a new record in 2018/19 fuelled mainly by a rebound in Argentina and further gains in Brazil.
• Utilization projected to rise modestly, with demand expected to keep expanding in Asia and recovering in Argentina, while consumption would remain close to record/near-record 2017/18 levels in Brazil, the EU and the US.
• Trade in 2018/19 to expand further on growing import demand in Asia; Argentina, Uruguay and the US expected to export more in 2018/19.
• Stocks (2018/19 carry out) to contract further, returning to levels recorded prior to the mid-2010s highs; y/y drops in Brazil and the US are anticipated to outweigh replenishments in Argentina and India.