Despite somewhat tighter supply prospects than envisaged earlier, markets for AMIS crops are likely to remain generally balanced in 2021/22.  Wheat export prices rallied in recent weeks on a deteriorating production outlook and quality concerns in a number of major exporting countries, while maize and soybeans prices remained firm owing to low inventory prospects. By contrast, export prices of rice remained under pressure from a slow pace of sales and generally favourable supply expectations.

• Wheat production forecast for 2021 lowered since the previous report in July and now falling slightly below the 2020 record level.
• Utilization in 2021/22 trimmed but still seen rising above the 2020/21 level with expected growth in food, feed, and other uses.
• Trade in 2021/22 (July/June) downgraded and now pointing to a slight contraction from 2020/21 with reduced sales from Canada, the Russian Federation and the US being only partially offset by higher shipments from Argentina, the EU, and Ukraine.
• Stocks (ending in 2022) now forecast to fall slightly below their record opening levels after downward revisions in several countries, especially Canada, the Russian Federation and the US.

• Maize production in 2021 sill forecast to reach an all-time high despite this month’s sharp downward revisions to production prospects in Brazil and the US.
• Utilization in 2021/22 scaled up, supported by stronger growth in food consumption and industrial use than projected earlier.
• Trade in 2021/22 (July/June) pointing to a decline from the 2020/21 record level with reduced shipments from Brazil and the US outweighing larger sales from Argentina and Ukraine.
• Stocks (ending in 2022) lowered on downward revisions in Brazil and the US, but still projected to rise slightly above opening levels.

• Rice production in 2021 trimmed primarily reflecting area-based downgrades for Iran, Japan and the US, which offset an upward revision for Viet Nam.
• Utilization in 2021/22 little changed from July, as lower than previously anticipated food uses were largely outweighed by higher forecast feed and industrial uptake.
• Trade in 2022 (January-December) raised somewhat and now pointing to a 1.7 percent y/y expansion on expectations that a retrenchment in Far Eastern demand will be more than compensated by continued growth in African purchases and a recovery in imports from all other regions.
• Stocks (2021/22 carry-out) marginally changed and still seen at their second-highest volume on record.

• Soybean 2021/22 production forecast reduced from July as downward corrections for the US, Argentina and India outweigh a small upward revision for Brazil, while global output is still expected to grow by 5 percent from 2020/21.
• Utilization 2021/22 lowered marginally from July, with reductions in China and elsewhere outweighing higher forecasts for Brazil.
• Trade in 2021/22 trimmed slightly compared to July, mostly reflecting lower import forecast for China due to reduced crush margins and lower than earlier anticipated growth in the country’s hog industry.
• Stocks (2021/22 carry-out) scaled down by 6.3 percent since July, owing to lower forecasts for China and Brazil, and now barely above the below-average level in 2020/21.