06 Apr 2017
The latest edition of the AMIS Market Monitor sees continued stability in global food markets. Based on the first AMIS projections for the 2017/18 marketing [...]
30 Mar 2017
Prices of food crops are naturally volatile as their supply depends on unpredictable factors such as weather. While volatility is not a problem per se, [...]
PEXELS
PEXELS
22 Mar 2017
A new AMIS publication provides guidance on measuring grain reserves. Reliable stocks data help decision makers understand food availability, plan the necessary interventions on market [...]
AMIS
AMIS
01 Mar 2017
Argentina will be the next Chair of AMIS, taking over from Germany at the end of the forthcoming meeting of the Global Food Market Information [...]

last release: April 2017

Market Monitor

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

n/a

Maize

n/a

Rice

n/a

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

Based on the first AMIS projections for the 2017/18 marketing season, the supply and demand outlook for wheat, maize and rice points to continued stability in world markets. Even in the event of any unexpected production shortfalls, carryover stocks are large enough to provide a sufficient buffer in the new season. Regarding the soybean market, which is still in the midst of the 2016/17 season, the latest indications point to larger supplies than earlier expected, while global demand should expand at a regular pace.

2016/17

2017/18

estimate

f'cast 6 Apr

Production

760

740

Supply

985

980

Utilization

738

735

Trade

173

169

Ending Stocks

240

247

in million tonnes

  • Wheat production in 2017 to decline by 2.7 percent mostly on lower outputs in several major producing countries, in particular the US.
  • Utilization in 2017/18 heading for a marginal decrease as feed use of wheat is projected down from 2016/17 because of cheaper supplies of feed grains. 
  • Trade in 2017/18 (July/June) is set to contract by 2.3 percent mostly on account of reduced import demand in China and India. Smaller exports are projected for Australia and the US.
  • Stocks (ending in 2018) to increase for a fifth consecutive year to a new high. 

2016/17

2017/18

estimate

f'cast 6 Apr

Production

1038

1051

Supply

1256

1269

Utilization

1038

1055

Trade

137

134

Ending Stocks

218

214

in million tonnes

  • Maize production in 2017 is tentatively put at 1.2 percent above last year, largely on bigger harvests in Argentina, Brazil and South Africa more than offsetting a sharp fall in the US.
  • Utilization to grow by 1.6 percent in 2017/18 with most of the increase driven by higher feed use in Asia and South America.
  • Trade in 2017/18 (July/June) is likely to contract by 2.0 percent, mostly on lower imports in southern Africa. A fall in shipments from the US largely exceeds the rise in exports from Argentina, Brazil and South Africa.  
  • Stocks (ending in 2018) falling by 4.0 percent on declining inventories in China and the US but higher carryovers are expected in the EU and South America.

2016/17

2017/18

estimate

f'cast 6 Apr

Production

499

504

Supply

670

675

Utilization

500

506

Trade

43.5

44.2

Ending Stocks

171

171

in million tonnes

  • Rice production in 2017 tentatively forecast to expand by an additional 1.0 percent, sustained by continued growth in India, along with sizeable recoveries in Brazil, China and Indonesia.
  • Utilization in 2017/18 to grow by 1.2 percent, with food use seen expanding by a similar margin.
  • Trade in calendar 2017 upgraded, mostly reflecting larger expected shipments by Thailand owing to ample local availabilities. Trade preliminarily seen expanding further in 2018.
  • Stocks (ending in 2018) to decline modestly, as drawdowns, mostly in the US and Thailand, are largely offset by build-ups elsewhere, especially in China.

2015/16

2016/17 forecast

estimate

2 Mar

6 Apr

Production

315

337

343

Supply

359

380

385

Utilization

320

336

337

Trade

135

141

141

Ending Stocks

43

44

48

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2016/17 production raised by 5.3 million tonnes on higher-than-earlier anticipated yields in Argentina and Brazil. Global output set to climb to an all-time high, up 8.8 percent from the 2015/16 level.
  • Utilization forecast for 2016/17 raised slightly, now pointing to an about-average y/y growth rate of 5.3 percent.
  • Trade in 2016/17 (Oct/Sept) mostly unchanged as higher import demand by China is largely offset by reduced requirements in the EU.
  • Stocks (2016/17 carry-out) lifted on higher forecasts for Brazil, Argentina and the US. Global end-of-season inventories now expected to climb by 5 million tonnes and reach an all-time high.

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