03 Apr 2020
Joint statement of the outgoing and incoming AMIS Chairs: Marcelo Fernandes Guimarães of Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture and Anastassios Haniotis of the European Commission. The rapid [...]
02 Apr 2020
This month's Monitor takes a closer look at the potential implications of the rapid spread of COVID-19 on global food markets. Despite the many uncertainties caused [...]
(c) Wikipedia
(c) Wikipedia
02 Apr 2020
While the impact of the coronavirus crisis on global food markets has so far been limited, the pandemic poses a serious threat to food security [...]
(c) U.S. Food and Drug Administration | VIRIN: 200129-O-ZZ999-001A
(c) U.S. Food and Drug Administration fileadmin/user_upload/amis/img/news/coronavirus4.JPG VIRIN: 200129-O-ZZ999-001A
05 Mar 2020
After only two months since the first reported outbreak of a novel coronavirus in Wuhan, a city of 11 million in China’s central province of [...]

last release: April 2020

Market Monitor

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

Despite much uncertainty caused by the rapid spread of COVID-19, global food markets remain well balanced: cereal stocks are expected to reach their third highest level on record this season and export availabilities for all AMIS crops are more than adequate to meet the anticipated demand. Nonetheless, given prospects of much weaker economic growth in many countries and turmoil in energy and currency markets, as well as rising concerns over the impact of temporary lockdowns on both domestic logistics and international trade, the situation needs to be monitored closely.

2018/19

2019/20 

estimate

5 Mar

2 Apr

Production

732.4

763.1

763.3

Supply

1020.0

1038.4

1034.8

Utilization

751.9

761.5

761.2

Trade

168.2

173.7

173.7

Ending Stocks

271.5

277.2

272.9

in million tonnes

  • Wheat 2019 production estimate remains just over 763 million tonnes; minor upward revisions this month in Argentina and in the Russian Federation countered a small cut in the EU.
  • Utilization in 2019/20 is nearly unchanged m/m; upward revisions in China balanced against a downward revision in the EU stemming from lower than expected production and faster pace in exports.
  • Trade in 2019/20 (July/June) still pointing to a 3.2 percent rebound from 2018/19 as larger shipments from the EU offset lower than previously anticipated exports from drought-impacted Australia.
  • Stocks (ending in 2020) lowered m/m, reflecting downward revisions in China, but still slightly above their opening levels.

2018/19

2019/20 

estimate

5 Mar

2 Apr

Production

1120.2

1137.8

1140.6

Supply

1489.3

1498.6

1501.8

Utilization

1140.4

1150.4

1152.9

Trade

166.3

166.8

167.3

Ending Stocks

361.2

341.8

342.4

in million tonnes

  • Maize 2019 production raised m/m largely on an upward revision in the EU based on increases in both harvested area and yield.
  • Utilization in 2019/20 scaled up slightly following upward revisions in the EU and the Russian Federation; putting the expansion from the previous season at just over one percent.
  • Trade forecast for 2019/20 (July/June) stands at just over 167 million tonnes, up marginally from 2018/19 levels and at a record, supported by ample export supplies.
  • Stocks (ending 2020) nearly unchanged from last month and still expected to decline by roughly 5 percent from their opening level.

2018/19

2019/20 

estimate

5 Mar

2 Apr

Production

514.6

512.2

512.0

Supply

690.4

695.2

695.1

Utilization

509.1

514.4

513.4

Trade

44.1

45.8

45.1

Ending Stocks

183.1

182.2

182.6

in million tonnes

  • Rice production in 2019 barely changed m/m and still pointing to an only slight output reduction from the 2018 record, largely due to drops in China, Brazil and Thailand.
  • Domestic utilization in 2019/20 trimmed, but ample supplies still expected to sustain a 1.6 percent expansion in food use of rice.
  • Trade in 2020 downgraded, on lower than previously anticipated imports by Iran and Iraq, as well as a few African countries.
  • Stocks (2019/20 carry-outs) raised marginally m/m, with global rice reserves seen at their second highest on record and sufficient to cover over 4 months of projected world consumption.

2018/19

2019/20 

estimate

5 Mar

2 Apr

Production

364.1

345.4

342.7

Supply

413.2

403.8

401.1

Utilization

353.2

360.6

359.5

Trade

150.4

152.1

151.6

Ending Stocks

58.4

44.6

42.9

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2019/20 production forecasts trimmed on unfavourable harvest conditions in pockets of Argentina and, to a lesser extent, Brazil and Uruguay – although the region as a whole is still expected to gather a record crop amid nearly ideal weather conditions.
  • Utilization in 2019/20 lowered fractionally on reduced crush forecasts for Argentina and a slower than originally anticipated recovery in China due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Trade forecast for 2019/20 adjusted downwards marginally on somewhat lower import estimates for China, while Argentina’s exports were trimmed.
  • Stocks (19/20 carry-out) scaled down further, primarily reflecting lower carry-out forecasts for Argentina and Brazil.

INDICATORS

Events

9th session of the Rapid Response Forum
28 Jan 2020
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
16th session of the Global Food Market Information Group
08 Oct 2019 to 09 Oct 2019
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

COUNTRY DATA