06 Dec 2018
The last Monitor of 2018 reflects on main developments shaping agricultural commodity markets this year. Beyond the usual factors impacting global supply and demand, the [...]
(c) Rabobank
(c) Rabobank
05 Oct 2018
For fifteen years, US farmers have responded to China’s inexorable demand for soybeans by nearly doubling their output of the oilseed, even as other countries [...]
(c) Wikipedia.org
(c) Wikipedia.org
06 Sep 2018
As the 2017/18 season gradually unfolds, it is becoming increasingly clear that agricultural markets are in rougher shape than in previous years. Several factors are [...]
(c) imago stock&people
(c) imago stock&people
02 Aug 2018
Wheat harvests are wrapping up amid excessive hot and dry weather in many regions, which has sharply reduced production forecasts. These developments confirm earlier concerns [...]

last release: December 2018

Market Monitor

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

This year has been eventful in many ways for most agricultural commodities; beyond the usual supply and demand factors shaping markets there has been an increasing level of uncertainty stemming from unexpected shifts in trade policies. Among the AMIS crops, maize and soybeans have been at the forefront of these policy changes, while global wheat and rice markets have been little affected. The other important feature, also central to the work of AMIS, is the recent revelation of drastically higher cereal production levels in China with potentially important implications, which is the main focus of this month’s editorial.

2017/18

2018/19 

estimate

1 Nov

6 Dec

Production

760.3

727.9

725.1

Supply

1015.4

1004.7

1001.9

Utilization

738.0

740.1

739.6

Trade

176.2

173.2

172.5

Ending Stocks

276.7

264.4

264.5

in million tonnes

  • Wheat production forecast lowered slightly, mostly on downward revisions in the Russian Federation and Turkey.
  • Utilization in 2018/19 lowered marginally following a further downgrading of prospects for feed use of wheat.
  • Trade in 2018/19 (July/June) lowered due to smaller expected imports in north Africa; exports from Argentina and the Russian Federation are trimmed since last month.
  • Stocks (ending 2019) almost unchanged m/m but 4.4 percent below their record high opening levels, driven by drawdowns among the major wheat exporters.

2017/18

2018/19 

estimate

1 Nov

6 Dec

Production

1093.2

1068.9

1068.4

Supply

1393.1

1379.9

1379.5

Utilization

1073.0

1109.8

1107.9

Trade

155.0

155.8

157.2

Ending Stocks

311.1

267.4

267.5

in million tonnes

  • Maize production forecast down marginally m/m with lower anticipated harvests in the Russian Federation and the US more than offsetting a significant upward revision in Ukraine.
  • Utilization in 2018/19 scaled down on cuts in feed use in the US and the Russian Federation more than offsetting a raise in the EU.
  • Trade in 2018/19 (July/June) lifted, supported by stronger import demand by several countries; exports from Ukraine much higher than earlier anticipated on the back of record production.
  • Stocks (ending in 2019) unchanged from last month and still 14 percent below their record opening levels; the biggest decreases are expected in China, South America and the US.

2017/18

2018/19 

estimate

1 Nov

6 Dec

Production

506.3

513.0

512.9

Supply

674.3

685.0

685.0

Utilization

503.8

509.2

508.8

Trade

47.9

47.3

47.2

Ending Stocks

172.1

176.6

176.7

in million tonnes

  • Rice production in 2018 only fractionally changed m/m, as a reduction for Madagascar is largely outweighed by improved prospects for a few Latin American countries.
  • Utilization forecast for 2018/19 trimmed, reflecting less buoyant use prospects for Brazil and African countries, namely Nigeria.
  • Trade in 2019 forecast to edge down by 1.4 percent y/y, as lower imports by Bangladesh, China and Indonesia more than offset larger purchases by Egypt, Nigeria and the Philippines
  • Stocks (2018/19 carry-out) still seen expanding by 2.7 percent to an all-time high.

2017/18

2018/19 

estimate

1 Nov

6 Dec

Production

341.5

371.1

369.0

Supply

390.4

412.2

410.1

Utilization

348.3

356.8

354.7

Trade

153.2

155.6

154.8

Ending Stocks

41.1

54.2

55.3

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2018/19 production trimmed marginally, with reductions in the US and the Russian Federation only partially offset by higher forecasts for Argentina.
  • Utilization in 2018/19 reduced somewhat, mainly reflecting lower than earlier anticipated forecasts for Brazil, following a brisk export path, as well as China, tied to weakening demand for meal.
  • Trade forecast for 2018/19 revised down slightly, underpinned by smaller than earlier expected imports by China.
  • Stocks (2018/19 carry-out) raised further, with upward revision in the US outweighing reductions in other countries. Global inventories now forecast to climb by more than one-third y/y.

INDICATORS

Events

13th session of the Global Food Market Information Group
03 May 2018 to 04 May 2018
Rome, Italy
7th session of the Rapid Response Forum
15 Mar 2018
Rosario, Argentina
Artificial intelligence for market intelligence
14 Nov 2017
Geneva, Switzerland

COUNTRY DATA