Jose Antonio Alba
Jose Antonio Alba
09 Dec 2016
According to the latest edition of the AMIS Market Monitor, La Niña conditions are established in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. They are anticipated to persist [...]
08 Dec 2016
The last edition of the AMIS Market Monitor in 2016 sees the positive supply situation for the four AMIS crops extend into the new year. [...]
07 Oct 2016
Speaking at a side event of FAO's Committee on Commodity Problems, the Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, Ms. Olena Kovalova, praised [...]
30 Sep 2016
This month marks the fifth anniversary of the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), which had convened its inception meeting on 15-16 September 2011. A series of events [...]

last release: December 2016

Market Monitor

 

From previous month f'cast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

As the year draws to a close, the positive supply situation that has characterized global markets for the four AMIS crops in recent years seems to extend into 2017. Assuming no major production setbacks occur, prices in international markets are thus likely to remain stable in the coming months, although external factors such as currency movements and developments in energy markets remain sources of uncertainty.

2015/16

2016/17 forecast

estimate

2 Nov

8 Dec

Production

735

747

749

Supply

947

972

976

Utilization

714

733

734

Trade

168

168

168

Ending Stocks

227

235

239

in million tonnes

  • Wheat  production in 2016 raised, reflecting upward revisions in Kazakhstan, Iran and Nepal.
  • Utilization in 2016/17 to expand by 2.8 percent with feed use increasing by 7.2 percent on large supplies and low prices.
  • Trade forecast for 2016/17 (July/June) unchanged but this month’s export forecasts for Australia and the EU are lifted, offsetting a cut in the forecast for Russia.
  • Stocks (ending in 2017) scaled up as end-season inventories in the CIS and Iran are projected higher than anticipated earlier. 

2015/16

2016/17 forecast

estimate

2 Nov

8 Dec

Production

1006

1025

1027

Supply

1229

1240

1244

Utilization

1007

1030

1030

Trade

139

137

137

Ending Stocks

217

208

212

in million tonnes

  • Maize production in 2016 increased following a significant upward revision in the US, more than offsetting a downward revision in India.
  • Utilization in 2016/17 to increase by 2.4 percent, driven by  significant expansions in China and the US for animal feed.
  • Trade in 2016/17 (July/June) to contract, mainly on reduced import demand in China and several countries in Central America.
  • Stocks (ending in 2017) scaled up mainly on expectation of a record build-up of inventories in the US.

2015/16

2016/17 forecast

estimate

2 Nov

8 Dec

Production

491

498

499

Supply

666

669

670

Utilization

495

501

501

Trade

42.7

43.4 

42.9

Ending Stocks

171

170

171

in million tonnes

  • Rice production in 2016 upgraded on more upbeat area expectations, especially for Bangladesh and Mali.
  • Utilization in 2016/17 little changed from November, as prospects of higher intake in West Africa outweigh downward revisions for India and China.
  • Trade in calendar 2017 downscaled, primarily reflecting lower anticipated cross-border purchases by China.
  • Stocks (ending in 2017) seen broadly steady y/y, following upward revisions to inventories held by Myanmar and Viet Nam.

2015/16

2016/17 forecast

estimate

2 Nov

8 Dec

Production

314

333

336

Supply

358

375

379

Utilization

320

334

335

Trade

135

138

139

Ending Stocks

43

39

43

in million tonnes

  • Soybean production in 2016/17 lifted by another 3 million tonnes owing to record-high yields in the US and small upward revisions for the EU, Canada and China.
  • Utilization in 2016/17 to expand by about 5 percent y/y, with world consumption falling below global production.
  • Trade in 2016/17 scaled up slightly on higher than anticipated import demand by China and the EU, while export forecasts are raised for the US and Canada.
  • Stocks forecast (2016/17 carry-out) increased by 3.6 million tonnes or 9 percent, reflecting higher estimates for the US, Brazil and Argentina. Global inventories now expected to match the 2015/16 all-time high.

INDICATORS

AMIS on

AMIS COUNTRIES