Despite a major production setback in the EU, global wheat output in 2020 is forecast to remain close to last year’s above-average level while world maize production is heading to a record, leading to a sharp increase in maize inventories. With rice production also bound for a record and soybeans making a strong recovery, prospects for all four AMIS crops indicate a generally comfortable global supply situation. However, in many parts of the world, local markets brace for the looming impacts of COVID-19, amid uncertainties related to demand, logistics and even access to food.

• Wheat production forecast for 2020 revised upwards m/m, mostly reflecting higher production in India and improved prospects in Australia and the Russian Federation outweighing a downward revisions for the EU and the UK.
• Utilization in 2020/21 still expected to decline from the 2019/20 estimated level given a likely contraction in demand for both feed and industrial use.  
• Trade in 2020/21 (July/June) pointing to a modest expansion from 2019/20, boosted by large export supplies and competitive prices.
• Stocks (ending in 2021) raised further, on bigger buildups in countries where production prospects have improved; now expanding by 3.2 percent from opening levels.

• Maize production forecast for 2020 scaled up on improved crop prospects in Brazil and the EU; now almost 6 percent higher than last year’s record.
• Utilization in 2020/21 nearly unchanged m/m and still set to increase by 2.7 percent from 2019/20, reflecting a stronger y/y expansion in feed use and a modest rebound in industrial use. 
• Trade for 2020/21 (July/June) forecast to exceed the 2019/20 estimated record volume by 1.2 percent, driven by continued strong import demand, ample export availabilities and relatively low international prices. 
• Stocks (ending 2021) revised downwards, but still forecast to increase by over 10 percent from the previous season to a new record, with most of the increase in the US.

• Rice production in 2020 up slightly m/m, largely on account of improved prospects in South America, namely for Brazil, Bolivia and Uruguay.
• Utilization in 2020/21 seen at an all-time high, as food assistance programmes and more ample availabilities boost food use in Asia and Africa.
• Trade in 2021 essentially unchanged m/m, with greater exports by India and Thailand expected to support much of the forecasted y/y expansion.
• Stocks (2020/21 carry-out) raised marginally, but still seen down slightly y/y, as continued build-ups in the major rice exporters are outweighed by drawdowns in China, but also in Indonesia and Bangladesh.

• Soybean 2020/21 production reduced marginally, but still anticipated to recover strongly from the previous season. 
• Utilization in 2020/21 trimmed somewhat as downward adjustments for Brazil and India outweigh upward revisions for the US; global soybean crush anticipated to grow by 3 percent y/y. 
• Trade in 2020/21 (Oct/Sept) left virtually unchanged m/m, while the prospective y/y expansion in global transactions would be largely driven by increased demand from China. 
• Inventory forecasts (2020/21 carry-out) scaled down in a number of countries, outweighing a further upward adjustment in China; globally, closing stocks are set to decrease moderately from last season’s level.