Markets at a glance

While agricultural prices have declined over the past 12 months, food price inflation remains high. FAO's food price index, a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities, is down 20 percent from year-ago levels. Yet, double-digit food inflation rates are reported in many countries around the world. Food inflation remains elevated in part because of the strong US dollar, which has kept commodity prices high in local currencies, and because post-farmgate costs such as energy, transportation, and food manufacturing costs, which account for a large share of the retail price, remain high due to core inflationary pressures. The poor suffer the most from high food prices as they spend high shares of their incomes on food and have weak capacity to cope with price shocks.

• Wheat production in 2023 is forecast to fall by 3.0 percent from the 2022 record, with the bulk of the decline expected in Australia and the Russian Federation.
• Utilization to remain near the 2022/23 level; growth in food consumption is seen balancing declines in feed use (mostly in China and India) and other use (largely in India).
• Trade in 2023/24 (July/June) likely to contract by 3.0 percent from the 2022/23 record, mainly reflecting lower demand expected from China and the EU, and smaller shipments from Australia and Ukraine.
• Stocks (ending in 2024) forecast to decline by 0.7 percent below opening levels, led by a drawdown in the Russian Federation, and smaller declines in the EU, Kazakhstan, the United States, and several countries in Asia.

• Maize production to rebound in 2023, rising by 4.2 percent from the 2022 level, mostly resting on larger harvests in the US, Brazil, and the EU, which outweigh a sharp decline in Argentina.
• Utilization in 2023/24 set to rise by 1.9 percent, boosted by an expected robust recovery in feed use, especially in China, Brazil, and the US, as well as higher industrial use and food consumption.
• Trade forecast to rise marginally (0.5 percent) in 2023/24 (July/June); bigger purchases by China, Mexico, Egypt, Iran, and Turkey are seen outweighing a fall in imports by the EU, while bigger sales by the US and Brazil overshadow a fall in expected exports by Argentina, Ukraine, and Paraguay.
• Stocks (ending 2024) forecast to increase by 4.6 percent above their opening level, marking a partial recovery from their fall in 2022/23, led by a sharp rise in US inventories.

• Rice production in 2023/24 seen recovering by 1.3 percent y/y, amid expected expansions in all regions, except for Latin America and the Caribbean and Oceania.
• Utilization in 2023/24 seen largely stable y/y, as another cut in animal feed uses could offset population-led increases in food use.
• Trade in 2023 (January-December) little changed m/m, as upward revisions to forecast imports by Near East Asian buyers are mostly compensated by downgrades to deliveries to various African countries.
• Stocks (2023/24 carry-outs) seen rebounding to a record high, largely underpinned by accumulations in exporters, most notably India and Pakistan, but also importers, including China and Indonesia.

• Soybean 2023/24 production set to rise y/y possibly to a record high, chiefly tied to expectations of recovering output in Argentina and further production gains in Brazil and the US.
• Utilization in 2023/24 to grow after stagnating in the previous season, underpinned by forecasts of higher crush demand mainly across Asia and the Americas.
• Trade in 2023/24 (Oct/Sep) seen expanding by about 3.0 percent y/y, reflecting ample export availabilities that are expected to coincide with reviving global import demand.
• Stocks (2023/24 carry-out) to increase markedly from their opening levels, with all major stockholders expected to replenish their reserves, while global stocks-to-use ratio would also recover.