03 Sep 2020
While supply prospects for all four AMIS crops are favourable, the health and economic consequences of COVID-19 coupled with intensifying trade uncertainties jeopardize food market [...]
(c) pxfuel
(c) pxfuel
12 Jun 2020
While industrial commodity prices, especially oil, plunged following the spread of COVID-19, prices of staple food commodities have been broadly stable. Early indications for the [...]
(c) www.news.cn
(c) www.news.cn
29 May 2020
Members of the AMIS Rapid Response Forum met for a consultation meeting on 28 May 2020 to discuss the food security implications of COVID-19, and [...]
(c) Flickr: John Lillis
(c) Flickr: John Lillis
14 May 2020
As COVID-19 spreads around the globe, fears are mounting that food supplies may start running short. While we should take these concerns seriously, they should [...]

last release: September 2020

Market Monitor

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

While supply prospects for all four AMIS crops are favourable and markets are expected to remain generally well balanced in 2020/21, the health and economic consequences of COVID-19 coupled with intensifying trade uncertainties jeopardize food market stability. The many forces currently at play render predicting how markets will evolve in the coming months most challenging. Faced with this unprecedented situation, the need for international collaboration to help reassure the orderly flow of food products has never been greater.

2019/20

2020/21 

estimate

2 Jul

3 Sep

Production

761.6

761.5

760.1

Supply

1033.1

1036.5

1036.6

Utilization

753.0

754.1

756.1

Trade

181.1

178.7

181.5

Ending Stocks

276.6

283.8

282.2

in million tonnes

  • Wheat production forecast for 2020 points to a slight decline y/y following this month’s downward revision for the EU, and to a lesser extent Argentina and the US, more than outweighing improved prospects in Brazil, Canada, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine.
  • Utilization in 2020/21 expected to exceed the 2019/20 level, driven largely by increased food use while feed demand is projected down from last year and industrial use to stagnate.
  • Trade in 2020/21 (July/June) scaled up amid more robust global import demand and expectation of large export supplies.
  • Stocks (ending in 2021) trimmed since July but still rising by 2 percent compared to their opening levels to the second highest level on record; China accounts for most of the anticipated y/y build-up.

2019/20

2020/21 

estimate

2 Jul

3 Sep

Production

1138.0

1208.8

1182.1

Supply

1498.5

1567.8

1544.5

Utilization

1131.8

1169.0

1173.4

Trade

172.9

170.1

173.5

Ending Stocks

362.4

395.5

366.4

in million tonnes

  • Maize production in 2020 to reach an all-time high despite this month’s downgrading of output in the US.
  • Utilization in 2020/21 to expand slightly faster than anticipated previously, supported by firmer demand for feed and industrial use.
  • Trade for 2020/21 (July/June) is likely to increase to a new high, amid ample supplies among major exporters and strong import demand, especially in Asia.
  • Stocks (ending 2021) cut by 29 million tonnes (7.3 percent), mostly reflecting sharp downward revisions in the US, but still rising for a third consecutive season, reaching a new high.

2019/20

2020/21 

estimate

2 Jul

3 Sep

Production

500.8

509.2

509.2

Supply

685.4

692.6

692.3

Utilization

502.4

510.4

511.0

Trade

44.3

47.6

47.1

Ending Stocks

183.1

182.2

181.2

in million tonnes

  • Rice production in 2020 forecast at an all-time record and unchanged from July, as small upgrades for Colombia, the Philippines and the US, in particular, offset reductions for the Lao PDR and Viet Nam.
  • Utilization in 2020/21 upgraded somewhat on higher than previously anticipated non-food uses, namely in China.
  • Trade in 2021 trimmed, but still seen expanding by 6 percent y/y, amid expectations that imports in Africa will grow for the first time in four years.
  • Stocks (2020/21 carry-out) downgraded albeit to what would still be their third highest on record; China accounts for much of the y/y reduction and downward revision, although stock forecasts were also cut for Egypt, Nigeria and the Philippines, whilst they were raised mostly for Thailand.

2019/20

2020/21 

estimate

2 Jul

3 Sep

Production

340.6

364.3

374.9

Supply

400.9

414.7

425.6

Utilization

357.8

365.5

370.3

Trade

160.7

158.4

163.7

Ending Stocks

50.7

49.1

53.0

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2020/21 production scaled up mainly on account of higher forecasts for the US and Brazil, which more than offset marginal reductions elsewhere.
  • Utilization in 2020/21 raised slightly, with upward adjustments for China, the EU and the US outweighing a lower forecast for Brazil; globally, total utilization is expected to accelerate faster after subdued expansion in 2019/20.
  • Trade in 2020/21 (Oct/Sept) adjusted upwards, with higher import demand by China, the EU and Argentina to be met by increased shipments from Brazil and the US.
  • Inventories (2020/21 carry-out) lifted by about 8 percent since July, largely reflecting higher forecasts for the US; global closing stocks now anticipated to rise moderately compared to 2019/20.

INDICATORS

COUNTRY DATA