IRRI
IRRI
02 May 2016
Good information on expected yields is of paramount importance for sound policy planning. Against this background, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [...]
Jialiang Gao, www.peace-on-earth.org
Jialiang Gao, www.peace-on-earth.org
19 Apr 2016
El Niño continues to decline from its peak strength in late 2015, with neutral conditions expected by June. However, it has already affected 60 million [...]
Photo: USDA
Photo: USDA
15 Apr 2016
In a statement during the OECD Meeting of Agriculture Ministers last week, the United States Secretary of Agriculture, Tom Vilsack, highlighted the importance of improved [...]
11 Apr 2016
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada signed a grant agreement with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) to support ongoing work on developing [...]

last release: April 2016

Market Monitor

 

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing        Neutral        Tightening

Roundup

The FAO-AMIS first forecasts for wheat, maize and rice supply and demand in 2016/17 suggest another season of large availabilities, albeit at a lower level than in 2015/16. The outlook for soybeans markets in 2015/16 has improved since the previous report, supported by more buoyant production forecasts in South America, which would boost world inventories to a new record.

2015/16

2016/17

estimate

f'cast 7 Apr

Production

733

713

Supply

933

917

Utilization

724

723

Trade

152

153

Ending Stocks

204

194

in million tonnes

  • Wheat  production to fall by 2.8 percent in 2016 with most of the decline in Morocco, Russia and Ukraine.
  • Utilization in 2016/17 to remain largely unchanged from 2015/16 with a decline in feed use more than compensating for a rise in food consumption.
  • Trade in 2016/17 (July/June) to increase marginally, supported by higher imports by Morocco.
  • Stocks (ending in 2017) to decline by 5.3 percent to a three year low, reflecting smaller projected inventories mostly in the CIS.

2015/16

2016/17

estimate

f'cast 7 Apr

Production

1002

1014

Supply

1219

1230

Utilization

1002

1024

Trade

129

129

Ending Stocks

216

205

in million tonnes

  • Maize production to increase by 1.1 percent in 2016, sustained by higher outputs in EU, Ukraine and the US.
  • Utilization in 2016/17 is projected to expand by 2.2 percent as large supplies and low prices stimulate feed and industrial use.
  • Trade in 2016/17 (July/June) to stay flat with higher imports in southern Africa offsetting reduced import demand in Asia and Europe.
  • Stocks (ending in 2017) could fall by 5 percent from the record high opening level but remain above the five-year average.

2015/16

2016/17

estimate

f'cast 7 Apr

Production

490

495

Supply

664

664

Utilization

496

503

Trade

44.9

44.1

Ending Stocks

169

164

in million tonnes

  • Rice production  in 2016 to expand by 1.0 percent, on expectations of recoveries in India, the Philippines, Thailand and the US.
  • Utilization in 2016/17 to rise by 1.4 percent, with food use keeping pace with projected population growth.
  • Trade in 2017 is tentatively forecast to decrease, reflecting reduced import demand by several countries in Asia.
  • Stocks (ending in 2017) to contract, as continued draw-downs by India and Thailand could offset build-ups mainly in China and the Republic of Korea.

2014/15

2015/16 f'cast

estimate

3 Mar

7 Apr

Production

320

320

322

Supply

352

366

367

Utilization

303

318

318

Trade

127

132

131

Ending Stocks

45

48

48

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2015/16 production raised by 1.3 million tonnes on higher than anticipated output in Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay.
  • Utilization in 2015/16 mostly steady as further downward revisions in the US, Brazil and other countries nearly offset higher crush estimates in Argentina.
  • Trade forecast lowered slightly, confining the expansion to 3.5 percent – compared to last year’s 11 percent growth.
  • Stocks (2015/16 carry-out) exceed previous season’s all-time record by over 6 percent.

INDICATORS

Events

Ninth session of the Global Food Market Information Group
22 Jun 2016 to 23 Jun 2016
Rome, Italy
Training workshop: AMIS mobile tool for market price data collection
04 Apr 2016 to 07 Apr 2016
Kaduna State, Nigeria
Fifth session of the Rapid Response Forum
10 Mar 2016
Washington, DC, United States

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