(c) Rabobank
(c) Rabobank
05 Oct 2018
For fifteen years, US farmers have responded to China’s inexorable demand for soybeans by nearly doubling their output of the oilseed, even as other countries [...]
04 Oct 2018
The latest edition of the AMIS Market Monitor sees global commodity markets of the AMIS crops easing. Especially in the case of maize and soybeans, the release [...]
(c) Wikipedia.org
(c) Wikipedia.org
06 Sep 2018
As the 2017/18 season gradually unfolds, it is becoming increasingly clear that agricultural markets are in rougher shape than in previous years. Several factors are [...]
(c) imago stock&people
(c) imago stock&people
02 Aug 2018
Wheat harvests are wrapping up amid excessive hot and dry weather in many regions, which has sharply reduced production forecasts. These developments confirm earlier concerns [...]

last release: October 2018

Market Monitor

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

The release of unexpectedly high forecasts for US production of soybeans and maize in early September added to the bearish tone in both markets and resulted in steep price declines, especially for maize. Wheat markets were also under downward pressure, although a combination of robust buying activity, reduced export availabilities of high quality wheat, and poorer crop prospects in Australia lent some support towards the end of the month. Meanwhile, currency movements and a lacklustre pace of sales kept rice quotations under downward pressure ahead of harvests in Asia, where crop prospects have improved further.

2017/18

2018/19 

estimate

6 Sep

4 Oct

Production

756.9

721.8

722.4

Supply

1012.0

995.4

995.5

Utilization

737.6

740.9

741.0

Trade

176.7

173.6

174.0

Ending Stocks

273.1

252.3

255.5

in million tonnes

  • Wheat production in 2018 raised slightly but still well below last year’s record.
  • Utilization in 2018/19 to expand despite a reduction in feed use of wheat. 
  • Trade in 2018/19 (July/June) heading for a small decline though US exports are expected to increase, compensating for lower shipments by other major exporters.
  • Stocks (ending in 2019) revised upwards on higher inventories in Australia and the Russian Federation, but still well below their record high opening levels.

2017/18

2018/19 

estimate

6 Sep

4 Oct

Production

1092.8

1065.5

1066.4

Supply

1393.2

1374.7

1374.0

Utilization

1075.7

1105.6

1104.1

Trade

154.3

152.5

155.7

Ending Stocks

307.6

267.1

268.8

in million tonnes

  • Maize production forecast for 2018 lifted reflecting record yield prospects in the US.
  • Utilization in 2018/19 lowered slightly but still pointing to a modest expansion from 2017/18 driven by stronger demand for feed.
  • Trade in 2018/19 (July/June) raised, reflecting larger anticipated purchases by several countries; the export forecast for the US lifted.
  • Stocks (ending in 2019) increased, following upward adjustments for the EU and the US.

2017/18

2018/19 

estimate

6 Sep

4 Oct

Production

506.3

511.8

513.0

Supply

674.2

682.2

685.0

Utilization

503.8

509.6

509.2

Trade

48.4

47.3

47.7

Ending Stocks

172.0

173.4

176.5

in million tonnes

  • Rice production in 2018 upgraded, as improved prospects for the US and especially India outweighed reductions for Mali, Pakistan and the Philippines.
  • Utilization in 2018/19 still expected at an all-time record, despite a slight downward adjustment to non-food use forecasts.
  • Trade in 2019 raised marginally, on higher anticipated imports by Brazil, the Philippines and Saudi Arabia.
  • Stocks (ending in 2019) now seen expanding by 2.6 percent, mainly due to an upward revision to carryovers in India.

2017/18

2018/19 

estimate

6 Sep

4 Oct

Production

340.6

366.8

370.5

Supply

389.5

406.7

410.6

Utilization

346.8

359.9

355.7

Trade

150.9

154.9

151.0

Ending Stocks

40.2

47.4

53.9

in million tonnes

  • Soybean production forecast for 2018/19 raised on higher than anticipated US soybean yields and expectations of another record-breaking crop in Brazil.
  • Utilization in 2018/19 revised downward, reflecting subdued growth in soymeal demand in China and lower than earlier expected crush levels in Brazil and Argentina.
  • Trade lowered as imports by China are now forecast to post a decline from 2017/18. Shipment forecasts for the major exporters lowered accordingly.
  • Stocks (2018/19 carry-out) again revised sharply upwards, underpinned by higher forecasts for Argentina and the US.

INDICATORS

Events

COUNTRY DATA