16 Sep 2021
Member organizations of the AMIS Secretariat discussed the future of AMIS and the initiative's strategic direction at yesterday's meeting of the AMIS Secretariat Steering Committee. [...]
02 Sep 2021
Despite somewhat tighter supply prospects than envisaged earlier, markets for AMIS crops are likely to remain generally balanced in 2021/22.  Wheat export prices rallied in [...]
29 Jul 2021
With the outbreak of COVID-19, food systems have been exposed to an unprecedented external shock as the pandemic has impacted different segments of the global [...]
(c) https://www.thestreet.com/
(c) https://www.thestreet.com/
07 Jun 2021
Higher prices year-on-year across a broad spectrum of goods and services have raised concerns about inflationary pressures within the agricultural sector. The May FAO Food [...]

last release: September 2021

Market Monitor

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

Despite somewhat tighter supply prospects than envisaged earlier, markets for AMIS crops are likely to remain generally balanced in 2021/22.  Wheat export prices rallied in recent weeks on a deteriorating production outlook and quality concerns in a number of major exporting countries, while maize and soybeans prices remained firm owing to low inventory prospects. By contrast, export prices of rice remained under pressure from a slow pace of sales and generally favourable supply expectations.

2020/21

2021/22

estimate

8 Jul

2 Sep

Production

775.1

784.7

769.5

Supply

1053.0

1076.4

1059.4

Utilization

759.0

779.7

777.5

Trade

187.8

189.4

185.1

Ending Stocks

289.9

296.9

284.1

in million tonnes

  • Wheat production forecast for 2021 lowered since the previous report in July and now falling slightly below the 2020 record level.
  • Utilization in 2021/22 trimmed but still seen rising above the 2020/21 level with expected growth in food, feed, and other uses.
  • Trade in 2021/22 (July/June) downgraded and now pointing to a slight contraction from 2020/21 with reduced sales from Canada, the Russian Federation and the US being only partially offset by higher shipments from Argentina, the EU, and Ukraine.
  • Stocks (ending in 2022) now forecast to fall slightly below their record opening levels after downward revisions in several countries, especially Canada, the Russian Federation and the US.

2020/21

2021/22

estimate

8 Jul

2 Sep

Production

1156.5

1197.5

1191.3

Supply

1457.6

1476.5

1471.3

Utilization

1175.1

1192.7

1195.1

Trade

188.4

188.8

186.0

Ending Stocks

279.9

292.7

282.6

in million tonnes

  • Maize production in 2021 sill forecast to reach an all-time high despite this month’s sharp downward revisions to production prospects in Brazil and the US.
  • Utilization in 2021/22 scaled up, supported by stronger growth in food consumption and industrial use than projected earlier.
  • Trade in 2021/22 (July/June) pointing to a decline from the 2020/21 record level with reduced shipments from Brazil and the US outweighing larger sales from Argentina and Ukraine.
  • Stocks (ending in 2022) lowered on downward revisions in Brazil and the US, but still projected to rise slightly above opening levels.

2020/21

2021/22

estimate

8 Jul

2 Sep

Production

514.3

519.5

519.1

Supply

697.4

703.5

703.4

Utilization

512.8

520.8

520.5

Trade

47.6

48.0

48.4

Ending Stocks

184.3

184.9

185.1

in million tonnes

  • Rice production in 2021 trimmed primarily reflecting area-based downgrades for Iran, Japan and the US, which offset an upward revision for Viet Nam.
  • Utilization in 2021/22 little changed from July, as lower than previously anticipated food uses were largely outweighed by higher forecast feed and industrial uptake.
  • Trade in 2022 (January-December) raised somewhat and now pointing to a 1.7 percent y/y expansion on expectations that a retrenchment in Far Eastern demand will be more than compensated by continued growth in African purchases and a recovery in imports from all other regions.
  • Stocks (2021/22 carry-out) marginally changed and still seen at their second-highest volume on record.

2020/21

2021/22

estimate

8 Jul

2 Sep

Production

361.9

385.8

380.6

Supply

416.6

431.8

426.4

Utilization

369.1

383.3

380.9

Trade

164.8

171.7

170.3

Ending Stocks

45.8

49.3

46.2

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2021/22 production forecast reduced from July as downward corrections for the US, Argentina and India outweigh a small upward revision for Brazil, while global output is still expected to grow by 5 percent from 2020/21.
  • Utilization 2021/22 lowered marginally from July, with reductions in China and elsewhere outweighing higher forecasts for Brazil.
  • Trade in 2021/22 trimmed slightly compared to July, mostly reflecting lower import forecast for China due to reduced crush margins and lower than earlier anticipated growth in the country’s hog industry.
  • Stocks (2021/22 carry-out) scaled down by 6.3 percent since July, owing to lower forecasts for China and Brazil, and now barely above the below-average level in 2020/21.

INDICATORS

COUNTRY DATA