(c) OECD
(c) OECD
07 Dec 2020
Early in the COVID-19 outbreak, there were concerns that the health crisis would develop into a large-scale food crisis similar to the 2007-08 food price [...]
03 Dec 2020
According to the December edition of the Monitor, supplies of all AMIS crops can be considered adequate while trade flows remain robust, despite reduced production [...]
(c) G20
(c) G20
01 Dec 2020
The Italian G20 Presidency started today, 1 December 2020. Over the course of a year, Italy will host a large number of institutional meetings and [...]
(c) UkrAgroConsult
(c) UkrAgroConsult
06 Nov 2020
The structure of the international trading system has undergone fundamental changes, with a recent shift from global approaches to more restricted or geographically limited trading [...]

last release: December 2020

Market Monitor

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

Notwithstanding this month’s downgrading of production forecasts for all four AMIS crops, supplies are still considered adequate and trade flows remain robust. However, the resilience in global food markets continues to be in sharp contrast to the increased vulnerability to food insecurity of many economically disadvantaged countries in the wake of the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic. In addition to a fast diminishing purchasing power and domestic supply chain disruptions, higher international prices will raise the financial burden of food imports in many low-income food deficit countries.

2019/20

2020/21 

estimate

5 Nov

3 Dec

Production

762.0

762.7

761.7

Supply

1033.7

1038.5

1038.3

Utilization

749.5

758.0

757.6

Trade

184.6

184.5

184.5

Ending Stocks

276.6

281.0

282.9

in million tonnes

  • Wheat production forecast for 2020 trimmed m/m as downgraded prospects in Argentina and Brazil, as well as a reduced estimate for Kazakhstan, outweighed an upward revision for Russia.
  • Utilization in 2020/21 seen increasing by 1.1 percent from 2019/20 driven by food use, while feed demand is seen constrained by reduced price competitiveness.  
  • Trade in 2020/21 (July/June) remains close to the 2019/20 record and unchanged m/m with larger sales from the Russia offsetting lower shipments from Argentina.  
  • Stocks (ending in 2021) lifted by 1.9 million tonnes mostly on an upward correction to the previous estimate of opening stocks in the EU, as well as further adjustments to China’s inventories. 

2019/20

2020/21 

estimate

5 Nov

3 Dec

Production

1138.2

1160.3

1154.8

Supply

1499.5

1515.1

1509.6

Utilization

1143.2

1168.5

1169.2

Trade

174.0

179.8

182.5

Ending Stocks

354.8

345.8

335.5

in million tonnes

  • Maize 2020 production forecast to reach an all-time high in spite of this month’s sharp downgrading of output in the US, as well as in Ukraine.
  • Utilization in 2020/21 to expand slightly faster than earlier anticipated, supported by firmer feed demand, especially in China.
  • Trade forecast for 2020/21 (July/June) scaled up further, reflecting even faster pace in purchases by China.
  • Stocks (ending 2021) cut by 10 million tonnes, now 19 million tonnes below their opening level, with most of the m/m decrease in the US where inventories are set to fall to their lowest level since 2013/14.

2019/20

2020/21 

estimate

5 Nov

3 Dec

Production

500.7

508.7

508.4

Supply

685.8

691.1

690.2

Utilization

502.7

510.3

510.3

Trade

44.5

47.2

47.6

Ending Stocks

181.8

182.0

181.0

in million tonnes

  • Rice production in 2020 marginally lower m/m on reduced prospects for Bangladesh and Viet Nam.
  • Utilization in 2020/21 still anticipated to rise by 1.5 percent; overall a food intake expansion to an all-time record is set to drive the season’s growth.
  • Trade in 2021 (January-December) raised slightly m/m, as an upward correction to exports from India outweighs downgrades to projected shipments by China, Thailand and Viet Nam.
  • Stocks (2020/21 carry-out) downscaled, namely on less buoyant expectations for reserves held by India, the Philippines and Viet Nam; but stock forecasts were raised for China and Thailand.

2019/20

2020/21 

estimate

5 Nov

3 Dec

Production

339.4

368.0

366.4

Supply

402.6

424.7

423.0

Utilization

360.3

369.8

373.0

Trade

169.1

166.9

168.2

Ending Stocks

56.9

54.4

49.4

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2020/21 production trimmed slightly m/m; global output is still expected to reach a historic record.
  • Utilization forecast for 2020/21 lifted, now pointing to a y/y expansion in global consumption of 3.5 percent.   
  • Trade in 2020/21 (Oct/Sept) raised somewhat, as stronger import demand from the EU and a number of smaller countries is seen outweighing a lower (though still record-high) forecast for China; world trade is now projected to contract fractionally y/y.   
  • Inventories (2020/21 carry-out) scaled down further, mainly reflecting downward revisions for the US, China and Argentina; with the latest revisions, global ending stocks would fall to a seven-year low.

INDICATORS

Events

Global Grain Geneva
17 Nov 2020 to 19 Nov 2020
Online conference

COUNTRY DATA