07 Feb 2019
According to this month’s Market Monitor, the outlook for AMIS crops remains generally positive, despite pockets of unfavourable weather in the southern hemisphere. While prices [...]
14 Dec 2018
China has revised its grain production estimates. This is not an unusual move, neither for China nor for any other country. The revisions emanated from [...]
(c) Rabobank
(c) Rabobank
05 Oct 2018
For fifteen years, US farmers have responded to China’s inexorable demand for soybeans by nearly doubling their output of the oilseed, even as other countries [...]
(c) Wikipedia.org
(c) Wikipedia.org
06 Sep 2018
As the 2017/18 season gradually unfolds, it is becoming increasingly clear that agricultural markets are in rougher shape than in previous years. Several factors are [...]

last release: February 2019

Market Monitor

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

The outlook for AMIS crops remains positive, notwithstanding pockets of unfavourable weather in the southern hemisphere. Tighter export supplies and brisker demand provided some support to prices. However, 2019 began on a generally quiet note as positive near-term supply prospects tended to temper price gains. The absence of several market reports in the wake of the US Government shutdown also contributed to a sluggish market dynamic.

2017/18

2018/19 

estimate

6 Dec

7 Feb

Production

760.3

725.1

728.4

Supply

1014.9

1001.9

1005.7

Utilization

737.0

739.6

742.6

Trade

176.3

172.5

171.8

Ending Stocks

277.3

264.5

266.9

in million tonnes

  • Wheat 2018 production forecast raised, but still well short of the 2017 record.
  • Utilization in 2018/19 lifted, largely on upward revisions to feed use in Australia.
  • Trade in 2018/19 (July/June) lowered slightly on reduced import prospects in Asia and in the EU.
  • Stocks (ending in 2019) higher than in the previous forecast, reflecting upward revisions in Canada and in the Russian Federation.

2017/18

2018/19 

estimate

6 Dec

7 Feb

Production

1094.2

1068.4

1080.5

Supply

1394.2

1379.5

1393.3

Utilization

1071.4

1107.9

1114.0

Trade

152.7

157.2

158.9

Ending Stocks

312.8

267.5

274.7

in million tonnes

  • Maize production in 2018 raised significantly following upward revisions in the EU, Nigeria, the Russian Federation and Ukraine.
  • Utilization in 2018/19 scaled up, supported by higher-than-earlier anticipated feed use in the EU and in the Russian Federation. 
  • Trade in 2018/19 (July/June) set to expand, fueled by stronger import demand by the EU. 
  • Stocks (ending in 2019) lifted on expectation of larger inventories in Argentina, the EU, Nigeria and the US.

2017/18

2018/19 

estimate

1 Nov

6 Dec

Production

506.3

512.9

514.1

Supply

674.3

685.0

686.7

Utilization

503.9

508.8

509.2

Trade

48.5

47.2

47.3

Ending Stocks

172.6

176.7

177.5

in million tonnes

  • Rice production in 2018 raised, as higher than previously expected yields in China and plantings in Pakistan offset slightly lower prospects for the Philippines.
  • Utilization to expand in 2018/19, with per capita food use still envisaged to grow slightly.
  • Trade in 2019 raised slightly as more buoyant exports from China are mostly offset by lower expected shipments from Viet Nam.
  • Stocks (2018/19 carry-out) to expand, mostly driven by higher inventories in China and India.

2017/18

2018/19 

estimate

1 Nov

6 Dec

Production

341.5

369.0

364.3

Supply

398.5

410.1

405.1

Utilization

349.7

354.7

354.8

Trade

154.0

154.8

154.0

Ending Stocks

40.8

55.3

53.7

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2018/19 production forecast lowered slightly on unfavourable weather conditions affecting crops in parts of South America. 
  • Utilization in 2018/19 virtually unchanged as downward corrections for Argentina, India and several countries in Asia and Africa are offset by higher forecasts mostly for Brazil.
  • Trade in 2018/19 trimmed slightly, mainly reflecting a further downward revision in China’s import forecast.
  • Stocks (2018/19 carry-out) curtailed on lower forecasts for Argentina, Paraguay and China.

INDICATORS

Events

8th session of the Rapid Response Forum
25 Feb 2019 to 26 Feb 2019
Geneva, Switzerland
13th session of the Global Food Market Information Group
03 May 2018 to 04 May 2018
Rome, Italy
7th session of the Rapid Response Forum
15 Mar 2018
Rosario, Argentina

COUNTRY DATA