Supply and demand prospects continue to point to a generally comfortable market situation for all AMIS crops in 2017/18. With the latest production forecasts indicating higher global outputs than earlier anticipated, especially for wheat, and large carryovers from the previous season, total supply in 2017/18 is likely to prove more than sufficient to meet projected demand. Indeed, ending wheat stocks are expected to hit a new high while maize inventories would only fall marginally below their already record opening levels. Rice and soybean markets would also remain well supplied if current production forecasts materialize.

• Wheat production in 2017 raised by almost 9 million tonnes, reflecting this month’s significant upward revisions mostly in the Russian Federation.
• Utilization in 2017/18 to approach the 2016/17 estimated record level as large global supplies stimulate food consumption.
• Trade forecast in 2017/18 (July/June) lifted by almost 3 million tonnes on stronger import demand particularly in Brazil and India.
• Stocks (ending in 2018) to hit an all-time high with the latest forecast 6 million tonnes higher than in July on expectation of bigger inventories in the Russian Federation.

• Maize production in 2017 set to reach a new high at nearly 1 063 million tonnes, 5 million tonnes higher than in July reflecting larger outputs in Latin America and the CIS.
• Utilization to expand by 1.3 percent in 2017/18 mostly driven by a 2.6 percent y/y growth in feed use.
• Trade in 2017/18 (July/June) heading towards a 5 percent expansion with the latest forecast 4 million tonnes higher than in July on larger imports by China, the EU and Mexico.
• Stocks forecast (ending in 2018) raised by 7.6 million tonnes mostly on higher-than-earlier anticipated build-ups in Brazil. 

• Rice 2017 production upgraded somewhat, but still pointing to a modest expansion from the 2016 all-time high.
• Utilization in 2017/18 scaled up mostly on account of India and Thailand, which more than outweighed a reduction to China’s forecast.
• Trade in 2018 forecast to remain brisk, with exports by Cambodia and China upgraded the most.
• Stocks in 2018 little varied y/y, as accumulations in rice importing countries compensate for drawdowns in the major exporters.

• Soybean 2017/18 production raised by 5.2 million tonnes, to now a near record level, following upward revisions for Brazil and the US more than offsetting lower forecasts in Argentina and India. 
• Utilization virtually unchanged from the last forecast, confirming a below-average y/y growth of 3.5 percent.
• Trade forecast for 2017/18 revised further upwards, primarily reflecting higher export availabilities in the US.
• Stocks (2017/18 carry-out) lifted, based primarily on higher forecasts for Brazil. Global inventories are now forecast to drop only 1.5 million tonnes from last season’s all-time record.