Despite an overall favourable production outlook, global supplies of AMIS crops could still prove vulnerable in 2021/22, in particular because of uncertainties relating to demand from the feed and industrial sectors. The month of May registered yet another increase in international prices of most food commodities, underpinned by brisk trade and a weaker dollar. The coming months will be critical for how food markets evolve. Global grain and soybean inventories could prove barely sufficient in case of a major production shortfall, while a speedier recovery in global economic activity could spur demand for these crops at a much faster rate than currently anticipated. 

• Wheat production forecast for 2021 lifted m/m, reflecting better crop prospects in Australia, China, the EU, Morocco, and the Russian Federation offsetting lower expectations than earlier anticipated for Canada and the US.
• Utilization in 2021/22 raised mostly on expectation of higher feed use, especially in China, driving up total wheat utilization by 2.5 percent above the 2020/21 estimated level.
• Trade in 2021/22 (July/June) scaled up m/m, now pointing to a small increase from 2020/21 supported by higher import expectations in Algeria, China, Iran, and Iraq.
• Stocks (ending in 2022) now seen bigger than earlier anticipated with higher forecasts especially for Australia, India, Pakistan and Turkey, outweighing a smaller buildup of stocks in China than initially expected.

• Maize production in 2021 is set to reach a new record, up 3.7 percent y/y, largely on increased outputs in China, the EU, Ukraine, and especially the US.
• Utilization in 2021/22 could grow by around 2 percent, supported by stronger demand for both industrial and animal feed applications.
• Trade is forecast to expand marginally in 2021/22 (July/June), with higher import demand from China still a leading driver, along with likely increase in purchases by the EU, Mexico, and Turkey.
• Stocks (ending 2021) are forecast to contract for the fourth consecutive season, down 2.7 percent y/y, with the bulk of the drawdown again occurring in China and more than offsetting likely increases in the EU, South Africa and the US.

• Rice production in 2021 to rise by 1.0 percent, as gains in Asia and, to a lesser extent, in West Africa and Australia overshadow cuts or stagnations elsewhere.
• Utilization in 2021/22 to expand by 1.4 percent primarily on rising food use, although another expansion in feed uptake is also expected.
• Trade in 2021 (January-December) still seen expanding, notwithstanding somewhat less buoyant import expectations for various African buyers. In 2022, growth in global exchanges tentatively seen stalling.
• Stocks (2021/22 carry-outs) seen marginally above their opening levels, as continued drawdowns in China are largely offset by expected accumulations elsewhere.

• Soybean 2021/22 production could rise to a record-high, primarily tied to expectations of higher plantings in the US and Brazil, as well as a sizeable output recovery in Argentina.
• Utilization in 2021/22 anticipated to expand by an about average rate of 2.6 percent year-on-year, mostly driven by steady consumption growth in China – linked to further expansion in livestock production.
• Trade in 2021/22 (Oct/Sep) forecast to expand at a subdued rate, reflecting modest import growth from China, while South American exports would expand, in part at the expense of shipments by the US.
• Stocks (2021/22 carry-out) could recover partially from multi-year lows in 2020/21, but global stock-to-use ratios remain well below the level recorded in recent years.