Although global supplies of basic foodstuffs remain abundant, shocks created by COVID-19 started taking a toll on food markets last month. The historic plunge of oil prices, precipitous fall in ethanol production, and deceleration in feed demand led to sharp drops in maize prices while protectionist trade policies, albeit temporary, raised concerns for global wheat and rice flows. With the global economic contraction in 2020 now forecast to be worse than the 2009 Great Recession, continued depressed demand in the face of ample supplies are likely to keep markets under pressure.

• Wheat production in 2020 to remain close to last year’s level.
• Utilization in 2020/21 to stagnate, with growth in food consumption largely offset by weaker demand prospects for feed and industrial use.
• Trade forecast for 2020/21 (July/June) pointing to a slight increase due to the inclusion of the UK trade with the EU from 2020/21.
• Stocks (ending in 2021) to increase marginally due to further buildups in China; excluding China, global wheat stocks to decline almost 5 percent, to their lowest level since 2013, with drawdowns expected in the US and North Africa. 

• Maize 2019 production nearly unchanged m/m, expected to surpass 2018 output by roughly 22 million tonnes (2 percent).
• Utilization 2019/20 forecast lowered this month, mostly on sizeable downward revisions for the US and China due to a significant fall in ethanol, starch and, to a lesser extent, feed demand.
• Trade for 2019/20 (July/June) still expected to reach 167 million tonnes, representing a marginal expansion from 2018/19 levels, supported by ample export availabilities.
• Stocks (ending 2020) lifted sharply (22.7 million tonnes) since last month as cuts in industrial and feed uses are expected to result in higher inventories in the US and China than anticipated earlier.

• Rice production in 2019 trimmed, largely on account of lower area estimates for Nigeria and reduced yield outcomes in Pakistan; these outweighed increases mainly for Cambodia and Mali.
• Utilization in 2019/20 downscaled, on less buoyant expectations of food intake in Nigeria and of industrial uses in China.
• Trade in 2020 lowered further and now seen close to the 2019 depressed level.
• Stocks (2019/20 carry-out) raised fractionally, as higher than previously anticipated reserves in Cambodia, China and Myanmar offset cuts for Nigeria and the Philippines.

• Soybean 2019/20 production forecasts trimmed further on unfavourable harvest conditions in parts of Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay.
• Utilization in 2019/20 adjusted downward in South American countries and Europe, reflecting, respectively, lower crops and muted demand growth.
• Trade forecast for 2019/20 lifted marginally, with upward revisions for China’s imports outweighing reduced import forecasts for Southeast Asian countries.
• Stocks (2019/20 carry-out) scaled up, mainly reflecting prospective stock replenishments in China and further build-up of inventories in the US.