Wikipedia
Wikipedia
15 Jun 2016
In an effort to increase the efficiency of Kazakhstan's grain sector, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) teamed up with the European [...]
@PhilHoganEU/Twitter
@PhilHoganEU/Twitter
03 Jun 2016
In their 3 June meeting, G20 agriculture ministers acknowledged the heavy impact of extreme food price volatility on global food security and even global stability. [...]
02 Jun 2016
Despite an overall favourable supply outlook, prices of AMIS crops increased in recent weeks in view of several production uncertainties: excessive rainfalls in Argentina (driving [...]
IRRI
IRRI
25 May 2016
AMIS organized an international seminar on “Approaches and Methodologies for Crop Monitoring and Production Forecasting” in Dhaka on 25–26 May 2016, in collaboration with the [...]

last release: June 2016

Market Monitor

 

From previous month f'cast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

n/a

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

Roundup
Defying expectations of a generally favourable supply outlook, international prices of AMIS crops were very much influenced by production uncertainties. Excessive rainfall in Argentina has been the main factor behind the increase in soybean prices while the increase in maize prices was largely caused by dry weather in Brazil. Rice prices are also on the rise due to El Niño-related droughts. By contrast, ample supplies weighed on international wheat prices.

2015/16

2016/17 forecast

estimate

5 May

2 Jun

Production

729

717

724

Supply

912

920

935

Utilization

711

724

718

Trade

155

154

155

Ending Stocks

211

195

216

in million tonnes

  • Wheat  production forecast for 2016 increased on improved prospects in the EU, the Russian Federation and Turkey. 
  • Utilization in 2016/17 lowered on expectation of nearly 2.6 percent decline in feed use from 2015/16.
  • Trade in 2016/17 (July/June) raised to the same level as in 2015/16 on higher imports by several Asian countries.
  • Stocks (ending in 2017) to increase to a 15-year high following this month’s sharp upward revisions, mostly to inventories in China but also EU and the Russian Federation.

2015/16

2016/17 forecast

estimate

5 May

2 Jun

Production

1004

1015

1027

Supply

1227

1233

1246

Utilization

1007

1026

1029

Trade

132

130

131

Ending Stocks

220

207

214

in million tonnes

  • Maize production forecast for 2016 raised mainly because of better prospects in Argentina, Canada, EU and the US. 
  • Utilization in 2016/17 to increase even at a faster pace, supported by stronger growth in feed and industrial use. 
  • Trade in 2016/17 (July/June) increased following upward revisions to imports in the EU, Egypt and Mexico more than offsetting a further cut in China.
  • Stocks (ending in 2017) to decline by much less than it was forecast last month, mainly on larger inventories in the US. 

2015/16

2016/17 forecast

estimate

5 May

2 Jun

Production

490

495

494

Supply

664

664

663

Utilization

496

503

503

Trade

44.7

44.0

44.1

Ending Stocks

169

164

164

in million tonnes

  • Rice production forecast for 2016 lowered somewhat, as prospects for Bangladesh, Brazil and China deteriorate. Exporting countries to account for much of the 1 percent upturn in global output.
  • Utilization in 2016/17 adjusted for a few countries; overall projected to increase by 1.3 percent from 2015/16.
  • Trade in 2017 raised somewhat, due to larger expected exports by the US, but still seen falling by 2 percent y/y, on weaker import demand in Asia.
  • Stocks to be drawn down by 5 million tonnes in 2016/17, necessary to bridge the gap between utilization and production.

2015/16

2016/17 forecast

estimate

5 May

2 Jun

Production

314

-

321

Supply

359

-

364

Utilization

317

-

330

Trade

131

-

138

Ending Stocks

43

-

35

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2016/17 production tentatively forecast to rebound, with gains in Brazil and India more than offsetting possible reductions in the US, Canada and Argentina.
  • Utilization projected to keep expanding in 2016/17, mainly reflecting expectations of further demand growth in China and a recovery in consumption in India.
  • Trade in 2016/17 could rise further, stimulated by persistently strong import demand in China and other Asian countries and by ample export availabilities.
  • Stocks (2016/17 carry-out) could drop from recent highs on expectation of sizeable drawdowns in Argentina, the US and China.

INDICATORS

Events

Ninth session of the Global Food Market Information Group
22 Jun 2016 to 23 Jun 2016
Rome, Italy
Training workshop: AMIS mobile tool for market price data collection
04 Apr 2016 to 07 Apr 2016
Kaduna State, Nigeria
Fifth session of the Rapid Response Forum
10 Mar 2016
Washington, DC, United States

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