13 Feb 2020
Forward curves are an important instrument in supply and demand analysis. They are constructed by drawing a line along the sequence of futures contract price [...]
06 Feb 2020
Global food markets are in the midst of an exceptionally eventful period in terms of both scale and scope. The recently reached US-China “phase-one” trade [...]
03 Feb 2020
The European Union was elected as the next AMIS Chair at the 9th Session of the AMIS Rapid Response Forum. Represented through Dr Tassos Haniotis, [...]
(c) UNCTAD
(c) UNCTAD
20 Dec 2019
World maritime transport lost momentum last year, expanding at a rate below the historical average. Nearly 2 percent of maritime trade was affected by tariffs [...]

last release: February 2020

Market Monitor

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

Global food markets are in the midst of an exceptionally eventful period in terms of both scale and scope. The recently reached US-China “phase-one” trade and investment agreement has fuelled expectations of a resumption of large US exports of agricultural products to China. However, continued geopolitical tensions and the rapid spread of a new coronavirus may impact many markets, agriculture included. For AMIS crops, global markets are likely to endure even more uncertainty because of unpredictable climatic conditions and extreme weather.

2018/19

2019/20 

estimate

5 Dec

6 Feb

Production

731.5

766.4

763.3

Supply

1015.9

1036.5

1034.0

Utilization

747.8

758.3

759.1

Trade

168.2

172.0

174.0

Ending Stocks

270.7

278.2

274.3

in million tonnes

  • Wheat 2019 production still pointing to an all-time high but lowered since December, largely reflecting cuts in Australia and the Russian Federation. 
  • Utilization in 2019/20 raised slightly with upward corrections to feed use, which is likely to expand by 3.2 percent.
  • Trade in 2019/20 (July/June) scaled up on expectation of larger purchases by several countries in Asia and faster pace in sales from the EU and Ukraine. 
  • Stocks (ending in 2020) still pointing to an increase from the previous season despite this month’s downward revisions in several countries, especially major exporters due to higher domestic use and exports.

2018/19

2019/20 

estimate

5 Dec

6 Feb

Production

1116.4

1126.8

1132.7

Supply

1485.0

1485.5

1493.1

Utilization

1136.6

1140.0

1146.0

Trade

166.2

163.7

165.4

Ending Stocks

360.5

339.5

341.0

in million tonnes

  • Maize production in 2019 lifted since December following several upward revisions; mostly in China but also the EU, the Russian Fed. and the US.
  • Utilization in 2019/20 is seen to expand faster than anticipated earlier, reflecting stronger feed demand, especially in the Russian Federation, the US and Viet Nam.
  • Trade forecast for 2019/20 (July/June) is now seen to approach previous season’s record level, fuelled by stronger import demand than anticipated earlier.
  • Stocks (ending in 2020) to contract from the previous season by 5.4 percent; less than previously forecast due to an upward adjustment in China.

2018/19

2019/20 

estimate

5 Dec

6 Feb

Production

514.9

515.0

512.1

Supply

691.0

698.0

695.6

Utilization

509.1

516.8

515.7

Trade

44.2

46.6

49.5

Ending Stocks

183.5

181.6

181.2

in million tonnes

  • Rice production in 2019 downscaled primarily along with historical revisions for Laos and Myanmar, planting cuts still envisaged to lower global output by 0.5 percent below the 2018 record.
  • Utilization in 2019/20 still seen reaching a historical high, as large availabilities stimulate an expansion in per capita food use.
  • Trade in 2020 downgraded further, mostly on lower than previously anticipated shipments by India and Thailand.
  • Stocks (2019/20 carry-outs) trimmed, on expectations of somewhat more pronounced drawdowns by importers; conversely, aggregate reserves held by the major exporters raised to a five-year high.

2018/19

2019/20 

estimate

5 Dec

6 Feb

Production

364.3

342.5

342.3

Supply

413.3

401.7

400.7

Utilization

353.2

356.5

356.8

Trade

150.4

150.9

150.0

Ending Stocks

58.4

45.4

45.4

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2019/20 production forecast unchanged, as upward revisions for Brazil and China are outweighed by lower forecasts for India, Canada and Argentina stemming from unfavourable weather conditions.
  • Utilization in 2019/20 raised fractionally, with downward corrections for India offset by higher forecasts for China, where pig herd rebuilding is underway.
  • Trade forecast for 2019/20 trimmed, as downward revisions in a number of countries compensate higher import forecasts for China.
  • Stocks (19/20 carry-out) virtually unchanged amid upward adjustments in Brazil and lower forecasts for China and the US – confirming a steep year-on-year drop in global inventories.

INDICATORS

Events

9th session of the Rapid Response Forum
28 Jan 2020
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
16th session of the Global Food Market Information Group
08 Oct 2019 to 09 Oct 2019
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
15th session of the Global Food Market Information Group
27 May 2019 to 28 May 2019
Rome, Italy
9th Secretariat Steering Committee
27 May 2019
Rome, Italy

COUNTRY DATA