04 May 2017
According to the latest edition of the AMIS Market Monitor all AMIS crops are heading towards a comfortable supply situation in 2017/18. Despite a possible decline [...]
30 Mar 2017
Prices of food crops are naturally volatile as their supply depends on unpredictable factors such as weather. While volatility is not a problem per se, [...]
PEXELS
PEXELS
22 Mar 2017
A new AMIS publication provides guidance on measuring grain reserves. Reliable stocks data help decision makers understand food availability, plan the necessary interventions on market [...]
AMIS
AMIS
01 Mar 2017
Argentina will be the next Chair of AMIS, taking over from Germany at the end of the forthcoming meeting of the Global Food Market Information [...]

last release: May 2017

Market Monitor

 

From previous month f'cast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

Prospects for wheat continue to point to a decline in world production from the 2016 record, albeit still permitting a further build-up in global wheat inventories in the new marketing season (2017/18). Maize and rice markets could be heading for some tightening, although the increase in global production could ensure a still comfortable supply situation in 2017/18. Soybeans are likely to begin the new season with record-large opening stocks, reflecting the latest upward revisions to the 2016/17 production level. In view of persistent bearish factors, international prices for all four AMIS crops remain subdued.

2016/17

2017/18 forecast

estimate

6 Apr

4 May

Production

760.3

739.9

740.4 

Supply

979.6

979.9

980.0

Utilization

732.0

734.7

731.0

Trade

173.8

169.0

170.0

Ending Stocks

239.6

246.6

247.6

in million tonnes

  • Wheat production in 2017 to fall below the 2016 record on anticipation of smaller crops in Australia, Canada, Russia and the US.
  • Utilization in 2017/18 to decrease more than it was projected in April because of a sharper dip in feed use of wheat.
  • Trade in 2017/18 (July/June) to decline by less than was anticipated earlier due to higher import expectations in China and India. 
  • Stocks (ending in 2018) to reach a new high with the latest forecast even bigger than last month, reflecting larger end-season inventories in China, Morocco and Russia.

2016/17

2017/18 forecast

estimate

6 Apr

4 May

Production

 1,040.5 

1,050.8

1,054.1

Supply

 1,261.9 

1,274.9

1,278.2

Utilization

1,035.3

1,054.9 

1,058.6

Trade

137.9

134.0

135.0

Ending Stocks

224.1

206.8

214.4

in million tonnes

  • Maize production expectations for 2017 improved, now 1.3 percent above the 2016 level; boosted by bumper crops in southern hemisphere countries. 
  • Utilization to expand by 2.2 percent in 2017/18, supported by a strong expansion in feed use, mostly in China and South America.
  • Trade in 2017/18 (July/June) to fall below the 2016/17 level as smaller imports by Brazil and several countries in southern Africa are seen to more than offset larger imports by the EU and several Asian countries.
  • Stocks (ending in 2018) raised sharply (by 7.6 million tonnes) since last month mostly on upward historical adjustments to inventory levels in China.

2016/17

2017/18 forecast

estimate

6 Apr

4 May

Production

499.2 

504.0

503.8

Supply

670.5

675.2

675.0

Utilization

500.3

506.5

506.5

Trade

43.2

44.2 

44.1

Ending Stocks

171.2

170.8

170.6

in million tonnes

  • Rice production forecast for 2017 little changed from last month, with Brazil, China, India and Indonesia expected to drive a 0.9 percent global production expansion.
  • Utilization to grow by 1.2 percent in 2017/18, with per capita intake holding steady.
  • Trade forecasts for 2017 and 2018 downscaled slightly, but renewed demand from Asia and Africa still anticipated to sustain expansions in both years.
  • Stocks (ending in 2018) trimmed, mostly on downward adjustments to inventories in Bangladesh and the US.

2015/16

2016/17 forecast

estimate

6 Apr

4 May

Production

314.6

342.6

346.1

Supply

358.5

385.3

388.7

Utilization

320.3

337.1

337.5

Trade

134.9

141.2

142.9 

Ending Stocks

42.6

47.8

50.0

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2016/17 production forecast upgraded by 3.6 million tonnes on better than anticipated yields in Brazil as well as in Bolivia.
  • Utilization in 2016/17 raised marginally, with upward revisions for China and Brazil more than offsetting downward corrections elsewhere.
  • Trade forecast for 2016/17 (Oct-Sept) increased on stronger import demand in China and higher shipments from Brazil.
  • Stocks (2016/17 carry-out) lifted further on higher forecasts for Brazil, China and the US – implying a 17 percent y/y increase in global inventories.

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