02 Feb 2017
The first edition in 2017 of the AMIS Market Monitor expects one of the least turbulent seasons in nearly a decade for all AMIS crops. [...]
Jose Antonio Alba
Jose Antonio Alba
09 Dec 2016
According to the December 2016 edition of the AMIS Market Monitor, La Niña conditions are established in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. They are anticipated to [...]
07 Oct 2016
Speaking at a side event of FAO's Committee on Commodity Problems, the Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, Ms. Olena Kovalova, praised [...]
30 Sep 2016
September 2016 marked the fifth anniversary of the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), which had convened its inception meeting on 15-16 September 2011. A series of events [...]

last release: February 2017

Market Monitor

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

Despite occasional and short-lived price upswings in international markets, prompted mostly by weather factors, record to near-record production combined with expectations of comfortable stock levels have paved the way for one of the least turbulent seasons in nearly a decade for all four AMIS crops. While weather will remain an important factor impacting the size of crops to be harvested in 2017/18, price prospects, and hence returns, will be critical for planting decisions. Volatile currency markets and emerging uncertainties confronting trade flows are likely to have a strong bearing on market developments in the coming months and into the next season. 

2015/16

2016/17 forecast

estimate

8 Dec

2 Feb

Production

735

749

758

Supply

947

976

984

Utilization

715

734

736

Trade

168

168

171

Ending Stocks

226

239

245

in million tonnes

  • Wheat production estimate for 2016 raised 9 million tonnes, mostly on larger-than-expected harvests in Australia and Russia. World wheat output to set a new record for the 4th year in a row. 
  • Utilization in 2016/17 up 3.1 percent from 2015/16, underpinned by a strong growth in feed use in light of large supplies of low-quality wheat this season. 
  • Trade prospects in 2016/17 (July/June) improved further on bigger anticipated imports by Brazil and India. Export forecast for Australia lifted sharply. 
  • Stocks (ending in 2017) raised by 6 million tonnes, mostly reflecting the latest upward adjustments to 2016 production estimates in several countries. 

2015/16

2016/17 forecast

estimate

8 Dec

2 Feb

Production

1006

1027

1033

Supply

1230

1244

1250

Utilization

1007

1030

1031

Trade

140

137

138

Ending Stocks

217

212

216

in million tonnes

  • Maize production estimate for 2016 lifted, largely on upward adjustments in China, more than offsetting a downward revision in the US. Output in 2016 would be the second highest on record. 
  • Utilization pointing to a 2.3% growth in 2016/17, mostly driven by strong demand for animal feed and industrial use, especially in China and the US. 
  • Trade in 2016/17 (July/June) remaining below 2015/16, as reduced imports in China, the EU and several countries in Central America, more than offset higher purchases by numerous countries in Africa. 
  • Stocks (ending in 2017) adjusted upward, largely on lower drawdowns in China and Ukraine.

2015/16

2016/17 forecast

estimate

8 Dec

2 Feb

Production

492

499

496

Supply

666

670

667

Utilization

495

501

500

Trade

41.7

42.9  

43.2

Ending Stocks

171

171

170

in million tonnes

  • Rice production in 2016 confirmed at a new record, in spite of downward adjustments for China, the US and Viet Nam.
  • Utilization in 2016/17 downscaled on reduced industrial and feed use prospects in Asia. 
  • Trade in calendar 2017 raised slightly, with higher anticipated imports by China, Nigeria, the Philippines and Sri Lanka supporting a partial y/y recovery. 
  • Stocks (ending in 2017) lowered, mostly reflecting less pronounced build-ups in China and the US.

2015/16

2016/17 forecast

estimate

8 Dec

2 Feb

Production

315

336

333

Supply

359

379

376

Utilization

320

335

334

Trade

135

139

139

Ending Stocks

43

43

43

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2016/17 production reduced, with gains in India and Brazil only partially offsetting downward corrections in the US and a sharply lower forecast in Argentina, following adverse weather.
  • Utilization in 2016/17 lowered somewhat, with drops in China and Argentina only in part compensated by gains in Brazil.
  • Trade in 2016/17 (Oct/Sep) virtually untouched, confirming a 3 percent increase from 2015/16, to a new record.
  • Stocks forecast (2016/17 carryout) trimmed slightly, with cuts in Argentina and the US offsetting an upward correction for China.

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