Production prospects for AMIS crops remain generally favourable for 2021/22 and despite expectation of stronger demand, the overall outlook points to a more comfortable supply situation in the new season as compared to 2020/21. In fact, prices in international markets have declined from their recent peaks due in part to more reassuring fundamental factors. However, with weather risks still posing threats to major producers, inflation fears encouraging speculative purchases, energy prices firming, and pandemic-induced uncertainties remaining, markets are set to stay volatile with upside potential for prices not waning anytime soon.

• Wheat production in 2021 downgraded slightly this month on lower outputs expected in Algeria, India, Iran, and Turkey more than offsetting upwards revisions for the EU, the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and the US.
• Utilization in 2021/22 lifted m/m on higher-than-previously projected feed demand; now accounting for most of the anticipated 2.7 percent y/y growth in total utilization.
• Trade in 2021/22 (July/June) to expand faster than earlier expected, following this month’s higher import forecasts for Algeria and Pakistan.
• Stocks (ending in 2022) scaled down m/m but still forecast to exceed their opening levels by 1.8 percent, supported by inventory buildups in Australia, China, the EU, India, Morocco and Ukraine.

• Maize production in 2021 lowered this month on sharply downgraded crop prospects in Brazil due to prolonged dryness, but still forecast to rise by 3.6 percent y/y to a new a record level in 2021.
• Utilization in 2021/22 still seen expanding despite a sharp cut in this month’s forecast for feed and industrial use in China.
• Trade in 2021/22 (July/June) nearly unchanged m/m and forecast to rise marginally above the 2020/21 level.
• Stocks (ending 2021) raised significantly m/m, mostly on an upward revision for inventories in China which are now forecast to increase y/y for the first time since 2015/16, driving up global stocks above their opening levels for the first time in four years.

• Rice production in 2021 up slightly m/m, primarily reflecting less subdued area expectations for Iraq and even higher reported yield outcomes in Argentina and Uruguay. These revisions outweighed a downgrade for the EU.
• Utilization in 2021/22 still seen rising to a new peak, with minor upgrades to forecasts since June primarily concerning food uses in Asia.
• Trade in 2021 (January-December) raised marginally, with purchases (cross-border and seaborne) by Viet Nam now seen doubling over the year. Trade in 2022 still seen stagnating y/y.
• Stocks (2021/22 carry-out) up marginally m/m, with an upward revision for Pakistan placing the major exporters’ closing stocks 5.0 percent above their opening levels.

• Soybean 2021/22 production forecast lowered fractionally from last month, with a higher projection for Brazil offset by downward corrections for Uruguay and Ukraine.
• Utilization in 2021/22 raised somewhat m/m, reflecting an upward revision for Argentina, while global consumption is anticipated to grow by nearly 3 percent y/y.
• Trade in 2021/22 (Oct/Sep) left unchanged m/m, confirming subdued y/y growth tied to a modest expansion in China’s import demand.
• Stocks (2021/22 carry-out) lifted marginally on account of higher forecasts for Brazil and the US, hence confirming a partial recovery in global inventories from the multi-year lows expected in 2020/21.