07 Jun 2018
The first forecasts for soybean markets in 2018/19 point to a tightening but still comfortable situation, according to the latest edition of the AMIS Market Monitor [...]
Typical impacts of La Niña on the world during Northern Hemisphere winter. www.climate.gov
Typical impacts of La Niña on the world during Northern Hemisphere winter. www.climate.gov
07 May 2018
La Niña conditions are still present, though they are weak and in transition to a neutral state. There is a 70 percent chance that the neutral [...]
10 Apr 2018
In an effort to continuously improve activities and outputs, the AMIS Secretariat commissioned two independent evaluations: One looking at the interplay between Secretariat member organizations [...]
Delegates at the 2018 meeting of the AMIS Rapid Response Forum
Delegates at the 2018 meeting of the AMIS Rapid Response Forum
15 Mar 2018
Canada was unanimously elected as the new AMIS Chair. The chairmanship will be passed over from Argentina at the next meeting of the Global Food Market [...]

last release: June 2018

Market Monitor

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

n/a

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

As the new season (2018/19) begins, early indications for AMIS crops point to an overall balanced outlook at the global level. Wheat and rice markets are projected to remain adequately supplied while maize is expected to experience somewhat tighter market conditions. The first forecasts for soybeans point to a tightening but still comfortable situation as world production of soybeans climbs to a new high. Weather will be critical in the coming months but other factors, including variations in exchange rates, high oil prices and trade policy uncertainties are equally important.

2017/18

2018/19 forecast

estimate

3 May

7 Jun

Production

757.2

746.6

754.1 

Supply

1010.8

1024.0

1031.5

Utilization

738.6

743.3

743.5

Trade

174.2

174.1

175.0

Ending Stocks

277.4

279.0

283.4

in million tonnes

  • Wheat production forecast for 2018 raised but still below 2017 despite increases to forecasts for several major producers, including Argentina and India.
  • Utilization to grow by 1.0 percent in 2018/19, supported by rises in feed and food use.
  • Trade in 2018/19 (July/June) to exceed the 2017/18 record volume with higher sales from the EU, the Russian Federation and the US more than compensating for declines in exports from Argentina and Ukraine.
  • Stocks (ending in 2019) to reach a new record, driven by build-ups in China and India.

2017/18

2018/19 forecast

estimate

3 May

7 Jun

Production

 1,089.7 

1,047.3

1,046.5

Supply

 1,388.9

1,304.5

1,359.2

Utilization

1,069.1

1,072.4 

1,090.0

Trade

145.4

143.6

147.0

Ending Stocks

311.9

226.9

262.4

in million tonnes

  • Maize production for 2018 is forecast to fall by 4.0 percent from last year’s record volume.
  • Utilization in 2018/19 to rise by 2.0 percent on growing feed and industrial use; significantly higher feed use is projected for China, Latin America and the Russian Federation.
  • Trade in 2018/19 (July/June) to increase by 1.1 percent, driven by higher import demand in Asia and continued large export availabilities.
  • Stocks (ending in 2019) to plunge by 16 percent on drawdowns in China, Latin America and the US. Global stock estimates revised up sharply since the previous report following historical revisions to China’s maize utilization and stocks.

2017/18

2018/19 forecast

estimate

3 May

7 Jun

Production

504.6 

510.6

511.3

Supply

673.7

681.9

682.6

Utilization

504.1

509.1

509.3

Trade

47.8

47.2 

47.3

Ending Stocks

171.3

172.9

173.8

in million tonnes

  • Rice production in 2018 upgraded somewhat, mainly on improved prospects for India and, to a lesser extent, Brazil.
  • Utilization in 2018/19 expected to expand by 1.0 percent y/y, mostly due to population growth in Asia and buoyant demand for rice in Africa.
  • Trade in calendar 2018 and 2019 seen only slightly below the 2017 all-time high.
  • Stocks (ending in 2019) raised, with India accounting for most of this revision.

2017/2018

2018/2019

estimate

forecast 7 Jun

Production

336.9

358.3

Supply

389.2

397.5

Utilization

352.5

360.4

Trade

151.1

156.9

Ending Stocks

39.2

36.7

in million tonnes

  • Soybean output could climb to a new record in 2018/19 fuelled mainly by a rebound in Argentina and further gains in Brazil.
  • Utilization projected to rise modestly, with demand expected to keep expanding in Asia and recovering in Argentina, while consumption would remain close to record/near-record 2017/18 levels in Brazil, the EU and the US.
  • Trade in 2018/19 to expand further on growing import demand in Asia; Argentina, Uruguay and the US expected to export more in 2018/19.
  • Stocks (2018/19 carry out) to contract further, returning to levels recorded prior to the mid-2010s highs; y/y drops in Brazil and the US are anticipated to outweigh replenishments in Argentina and India.

INDICATORS

Events

AMIS on

COUNTRY DATA