Chatham House
Chatham House
15 Nov 2019
The multilateral trading system faces a momentous reform objective as it heads towards next year’s WTO Ministerial Conference in June. With the objective of establishing [...]
07 Nov 2019
According to the November edition of the AMIS Market Monitor, international grain and oilseed markets firmed last month in view of dampening supply proposect for [...]
16 Oct 2019
Upon the invitation of the current Chair of AMIS (Brazil) the 16th session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group was held in Rio [...]
12 Sep 2019
According to latest projections by OECD and FAO, food supply growth over the next ten years will modestly outpace demand growth. Not surprisingly, therefore, real [...]

last release: November 2019

Market Monitor

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

International prices of wheat, maize and soybeans firmed in recent weeks as supply prospects for 2019/20 dampened somewhat. The increase was particularly pronounced for maize where markets received strong support from reduced opening stocks in the US. Wheat prices rose following a downgrading of production prospects in a number of major exporting countries. Soybean prices also firmed significantly, mostly due to a provisional resumption of Chinese purchases of US cargoes that added upward pressure. By contrast, harvest pressure, slow demand and prospects of world supplies remaining ample kept rice prices in check.

2018/19

2019/20 

estimate

3 Oct

7 Nov

Production

731.9

766.0

765.0

Supply

1016.3

1034.8

1034.8

Utilization

748.0

761.5

759.5

Trade

168.2

173.5

172.1

Ending Stocks

269.8

272.9

274.9

in million tonnes

  • Wheat 2019 production forecast lowered, reflecting smaller harvests in Kazakhstan and deteriorating prospects in Australia and Argentina. 
  • Utilization in 2019/20 reduced on expectation of less robust feed use demand for wheat.
  • Trade in 2019/20 (July/June) trimmed, largely reflecting smaller purchases in Asia, in particular by Afghanistan.
  • Stocks (ending 2020) lifted, primarily on higher build-ups in the EU more than offsetting a drop in the size of Russian Federation inventories.

2018/19

2019/20 

estimate

3 Oct

7 Nov

Production

1118.1

1124.1

1122.6

Supply

1486.5

1486.5

1479.0

Utilization

1141.6

1141.8

1141.5

Trade

165.9

160.7

161.5

Ending Stocks

356.4

337.2

331.0

in million tonnes

  • Maize 2019 production forecast lowered following a downward revision in Mexico, but global production is still set to reach its second highest level on record. 
  • Utilization in 2019/20 remains flat with food use rising but feed demand falling especially in the US. 
  • Trade in 2019/20 (July/June) revised slightly up but still pointing to a 1.5 percent contraction from the previous season’s record volume. 
  • Stocks (ending in 2020) to decline more significantly than expected earlier, down 1.8 percent m/m, primarily because of a cut in US ending stocks.

2018/19

2019/20 

estimate

3 Oct

6 Nov

Production

517.5

513.5

513.4

Supply

691.6

696.4

696.5

Utilization

510.1

516.4

515.9

Trade

46.2

47.5

47.7

Ending Stocks

183.1

179.3

180.9

in million tonnes

  • Rice production barely changed, as improved prospects mainly for Bangladesh, India and Viet Nam offset downward adjustments for Indonesia, Japan and Thailand.
  • Utilization in 2019/20 trimmed, on lower anticipated non-food uses in the Far East.
  • Trade in 2020 raised fractionally, largely due to more buoyant import expectations for the EU.
  • Stocks (2019/20 carry-out) upgraded once again and now seen just 1.2 percent below their all-time record. Upward adjustments since last month concerned inventories held by exporters (India in particular), but also stocks held by Bangladesh and the Philippines.

2018/19

2019/20 

estimate

3 Oct

6 Nov

Production

361.1

346.2

343.1

Supply

405.9

408.0

402.4

Utilization

350.3

359.2

355.5

Trade

150.6

150.0

150.5

Ending Stocks

59.3

48.2

47.0

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2019/20 production lowered further on reduced crop estimates for the US, India and the Russian Federation, confirming a 5 percent y/y drop from the revised 2018/19 level. 
  • Utilization in 2019/20 adjusted downward, mainly reflecting lower than earlier anticipated crushings in Argentina, Brazil, China and India.
  • 2019/20 trade forecast virtually unchanged, confirming a modest y/y recovery in Chinese import demand. 
  • Stocks (2019/20 carry-outs) scaled down, as further downward adjustments for the US – stemming from both lower carry-in stocks and reduced production – are only partly offset by higher forecasts elsewhere.

INDICATORS

Events

16th session of the Global Food Market Information Group
08 Oct 2019 to 09 Oct 2019
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
15th session of the Global Food Market Information Group
27 May 2019 to 28 May 2019
Rome, Italy
9th Secretariat Steering Committee
27 May 2019
Rome, Italy
8th session of the Rapid Response Forum
25 Feb 2019 to 26 Feb 2019
Geneva, Switzerland

COUNTRY DATA