Market Monitor

Spring planting in the Northern Hemisphere is underway amid high commodity prices but high input costs as well. Early indications for the United States and the European Union suggest that higher prices for soybeans and other oilseeds will encourage producers to increase oilseed plantings. For wheat, increased acreage in Canada might help fill some of the global deficit in supplies. However, the outlook is less favourable for India and the United States. Due to the tightness in global stocks and the uncertainty caused by the conflict in Ukraine, price volatility is likely to remain high this year as markets will focus on weather, crop conditions of fall-planted wheat and progress for spring planting and development later this summer. Of increasing concern are export restrictions, which further exacerbate price volatility and jeopardize global supplies.

• Wheat production in 2021 unchanged and still on par with last season's record, with higher outputs in Argentina, Australia, the EU, Morocco, the UK, and Ukraine offsetting declines in Canada, Iran, the USA, and the Russian Federation.
• Utilization in 2021/22 set to increase, largely driven by growth in food consumption in Asia and Africa, despite a downward revision this month, mostly on feed use in India.
• Trade in 2021/22 (July/June) headed for a slight increase from 2020/21 following an upward revision this month, mostly reflecting higher than expected shipments from the Russian Federation and continued firm global demand.
• Stocks (ending in 2022) raised on adjustments to India's inventories and expected to rise by 4.2 percent above opening levels.

• Maize 2021 production forecast at 3.9 percent above the 2020 level, marking a record. Greater outputs in China, Ukraine, and the USA outweighed a decline in Brazil's production.
• Utilization in 2021/22 unchanged and still headed for a 2.0 expansion above 2020/21, largely driven by higher feed use, especially in Brazil, Canada, and China, and industrial use in the USA.
• Trade 2021/22 (July/June) forecast is raised slightly, on larger than expected shipments from Argentina and continued robust demand in China, but still pointing to a 5.7 percent contraction from 2020/21.
• Stocks (ending 2022) forecast to rise above opening levels by 5.5 percent, underpinned by larger stocks in Ukraine as a result of suspended exports.

• Rice production in 2021 raised slightly, on somewhat higher output expectations for Asian countries, namely Bangladesh and the Philippines, as well as West African producers such as Cote d'Ivoire and Mali.
• Utilization in 2021/22 still forecast at a record high, underpinned by a 1.6 y/y expansion in food use and an 11.9 percent rise in animal feed use.
• Trade in 2022 (January-December) unchanged m/m, as slight upward revisions to imports by the Philippines are offset by downgrades to forecast purchases by a few West African countries, namely Mali.
• Stocks (2021/22 carry-out) marginally changed m/m and still seen reaching a fresh peak, as anticipated year-to-year drawdowns in China and, to a lesser extent Indonesia, Iran and the US, are more than offset by accumulations in Bangladesh, India and Viet Nam.

• Soybean 2021/22 production about unchanged m/m, with an upward correction of Argentina's production offset by lower forecasts for Paraguay.
• Utilization in 2021/22 lowered marginally, mainly tied to a subdued demand outlook in China, confirming an exceptional contraction in global consumption from last season's record high.
• Trade in 2021/22 (Oct/Sep) trimmed on smaller import forecasts for China, while shipments were lowered for Brazil and Paraguay.
• Stocks (2021/22 carry-out) virtually unchanged, with a downward revision for the US offset by higher forecasts elsewhere. Global inventories remain seen at multi-year lows.