(c) UkrAgroConsult
(c) UkrAgroConsult
06 Nov 2020
The structure of the international trading system has undergone fundamental changes, with a recent shift from global approaches to more restricted or geographically limited trading [...]
05 Nov 2020
According to this month's report, global food markets have so far exhibited a high degree of resilience in the face of COVID-19, remaining on a healthy [...]
(c) Global Grain Geneva
(c) Global Grain Geneva
30 Oct 2020
This year for the first time, AMIS teams up with Global Grain Geneva to present latest developments and the AMIS outlook for global food commodity markets [...]
(c) pxfuel
(c) pxfuel
12 Jun 2020
While industrial commodity prices, especially oil, plunged following the spread of COVID-19, prices of staple food commodities have been broadly stable. Early indications for the [...]

last release: November 2020

Market Monitor

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

COVID-19-ravaged economies must now endure the impacts of the second wave of the pandemic, which is set to wreak more havoc on people, economies and livelihoods in many parts of the world. Global food markets have so far exhibited a high degree of resilience, remaining on a healthy trend with firm demand and trade expanding. Yet to what extent and for how long demand for food commodities will hold up remain among the many uncertainties ahead. Indeed, a different situation is fast emerging in many national and sub-national contexts as employment disruptions are giving way to massive job losses, pushing millions of people into poverty and further deepening the world hunger crisis.

2019/20

2020/21 

estimate

8 Oct

5 Nov

Production

761.9

764.9

762.7

Supply

1033.2

1039.7

1038.5

Utilization

750.5

756.6

758.0

Trade

184.0

184.5

184.5

Ending Stocks

275.8

284.8

281.0

in million tonnes

  • Wheat production forecast for 2020 lowered by 2.2 million tonnes m/m, reflecting lower output expectations in Ukraine, as well as in Argentina, where persistent dry weather curtailed yield prospects compared to earlier projections.
  • Utilization in 2020/21 is expected to increase by 1.0 percent y/y, boosted by upward adjustments this month in the EU, Pakistan and the US more than offsetting downward revisions in Argentina and the Philippines.
  • Trade in 2020/21 (July/June) to exceed the 2019/20 record, albeit marginally, supported by stronger demand from China, the EU, Morocco, Pakistan and Egypt, propelling bigger shipments from Australia, Canada, and the Russian Federation than in 2019/20.
  • Stocks (ending in 2021) cut by 3.8 million tonnes since last month mostly on downward revisions in the EU, the Russian Federation, and the US; indicating further tightening of supplies in major exporters in 2020/21.

2019/20

2020/21 

estimate

8 Oct

5 Nov

Production

1138.2

1170.8

1160.3

Supply

1499.5

1527.4

1515.1

Utilization

1143.1

1167.7

1168.5

Trade

173.4

176.0

179.8

Ending Stocks

354.8

356.6

345.8

in million tonnes

  • Maize 2020 production forecast cut sharply on further downward revisions in the EU, the US and Ukraine; however, world production is still expected to increase y/y to a new record.
  • Utilization in 2020/21 raised on stronger-than-earlier anticipated growth prospects for non-food use, especially in China.
  • Trade forecast for 2020/21 (July/June) lifted on stronger import demand in the EU and several countries in Asia and South America, now pointing to significant y/y trade expansion to a new record.
  • Stocks (ending 2021) forecast to decline for the third consecutive season, falling below their opening level following this month’s sharp downward revisions in several countries.

2019/20

2020/21 

estimate

8 Oct

5 Nov

Production

501.1

509.1

508.7

Supply

685.9

691.4

691.1

Utilization

502.5

510.5

510.3

Trade

44.4

47.1

47.2

Ending Stocks

182.4

182.0

182.0

in million tonnes

  • Rice production in 2020 down marginally m/m, as improved prospects for Indonesia partly compensate for downgrades namely for Myanmar and Nigeria.
  • Utilization in 2020/21 to expand by 1.5 percent y/y, driven by a second successive season of per capita food use gains in Asia and a recovery in Africa.
  • Trade in 2021 predicted to expand for the first time in four years, while still falling short of previous records, as economic uncertainties cloud the import outlook for various African buyers and demand growth in Asia may be confined to a few countries.
  • Stocks (2020/21 carry-out) still seen largely unchanged y/y, sustained by accumulations in the major exporters that could lift their stock-to-disappearance ratio to a seven-year high.

2019/20

2020/21 

estimate

8 Oct

5 Nov

Production

339.4

370.8

368.0

Supply

402.7

428.3

424.7

Utilization

358.8

369.5

369.8

Trade

167.6

165.8

166.9

Ending Stocks

57.1

58.0

54.4

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2020/21 production lowered somewhat, mainly reflecting downward corrections for the US and Brazil related to, respectively, area revisions and weather conditions; global output would still be record-high.
  • Utilization in 2020/21 unchanged m/m, with higher forecasts for China offset by downward revisions for a number of countries.
  • Trade forecast for 2020/21 (Oct/Sept) raised slightly m/m, as a higher export forecast for the US outweighs a downward revision for Paraguay.
  • Inventories (2020/21 carry-out) scaled down, largely reflecting a sharp downward revision for the US, which overshadows upward adjustments elsewhere and pushes global stocks to a 3-year low.

INDICATORS

Events

Global Grain Geneva
17 Nov 2020 to 19 Nov 2020
Online conference

COUNTRY DATA