Agricultural Market Information System: Home

30 Sep 2016

This month marks the fifth anniversary of the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), which had convened its inception meeting on 15-16 September 2011. A series of events [...]

September edition of the AMIS Market Monitor

08 Sep 2016

The current Market Monitor sees crop prospects improved compared to July, with large export availabilities contributing to declines in international prices of the AMIS crops. [...]

GEOGLAM joining AMIS

28 Jun 2016

The Group on Earth Observations Global Agricultural Monitoring initiative (GEOGLAM) became the eleventh member of the AMIS Secretariat. The AMIS Steering Committee unanimously approved GEOGLAM’s [...]

Wikipedia

Towards enhanced grain market transparency in Kazakhstan

15 Jun 2016

In an effort to increase the efficiency of Kazakhstan's grain sector, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) teamed up with the European [...]

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last release: September 2016

	From previous month f'cast	From previous season
Wheat
Maize
Rice
Soybeans
Easing	Neutral	Tightening

Improved crop prospects and plentiful export availabilities contributed to further declines in international prices of the four AMIS crops. Production forecasts have been raised since the previous report in July, in particular for maize and soybeans. Although weather may still alter the outlook for crops to be harvested in 2016/17, global markets are expected to experience a relatively calm outlook thanks to generally ample inventories.


	2015/16	2016/17 forecast
	estimate	7 Jul	8 Sep
Production	734	732	741
Supply	943	944	966
Utilization	715	726	729
Trade	165	159	164
Ending Stocks	225	217	233
in million tonnes

Wheat production in 2016 to reach all-time high despite a sharp downgrading of EU crops.
Utilization in 2016/17 higher than anticipated earlier, given the prospects for larger feed use because of ample supplies of low quality wheat.
Trade forecast for 2016/17 (July/June) scaled up sharply with low prices boosting import demand, especially in Asia and Africa.
Stocks forecast (ending in 2017) raised sharply, now exceeding their opening levels, mostly on higher anticipated inventories in China.


	2015/16	2016/17 forecast
	estimate	7 Jul	8 Sep
Production	1004	1018	1030
Supply	1230	1237	1249
Utilization	1007	1030	1029
Trade	139	132	135
Ending Stocks	219	207	217
in million tonnes

Maize production forecast for 2016 raised sharply, mostly on exceptional yield expectations in the US.
Utilization in 2016/17 to expand, underpinned by strong growth in demand for feed use.
Trade forecast for 2016/17 (July/June) lifted on higher import expectations in South America.
Stocks (ending in 2017) adjusted upwards with most of the increase in the US, reflecting the latest upgrading of maize production prospects.


	2015/16	2016/17 forecast
	estimate	7 Jul	8 Sep
Production	491	495	496
Supply	665	665	666
Utilization	496	503	503
Trade	43.5	43.8	43.7
Ending Stocks	170	165	166
in million tonnes

Rice production in 2016 scaled up, as improved weather in Asia and less attractive prices for alternative crops boost plantings.
Utilization in 2016/17 to grow by 1.4 percent y/y thanks to expanding food use.
Trade in 2017 lowered marginally, with reduced import expectations for the Philippines and Iraq partly offset by higher forecasts for Brazil.
Stocks in 2017 upgraded by 1 million tonnes, on higher anticipated inventories in India, the US and Viet Nam.


	2015/16	2016/17 forecast
	estimate	7 Jul	8 Sep
Production	316	319	326
Supply	360	361	368
Utilization	318	330	332
Trade	133	136	136
Ending Stocks	43	32	36
in million tonnes

Soybean 2016/17 production raised as favourable weather is expected to boost US crop prospects.
Global 2016/17 utilization increased slightly, now up 4.2 percent from 2015/16.
Trade in 2016/17 almost unchanged, with US sales revised sharply upwards at the expense of other exporters, notably Brazil.
Stocks estimate (2016/17 carry out) raised on higher forecasts for the US and Argentina, although remaining well below the 2015/16 record.