02 Jul 2020
Global supplies of all AMIS crops are expected at comfortable levels in the new season. Gobal wheat output in 2020 is forecast to remain close [...]
(c) pxfuel
(c) pxfuel
12 Jun 2020
While industrial commodity prices, especially oil, plunged following the spread of COVID-19, prices of staple food commodities have been broadly stable. Early indications for the [...]
(c) www.news.cn
(c) www.news.cn
29 May 2020
Members of the AMIS Rapid Response Forum met for a consultation meeting on 28 May 2020 to discuss the food security implications of COVID-19, and [...]
(c) Flickr: John Lillis
(c) Flickr: John Lillis
14 May 2020
As COVID-19 spreads around the globe, fears are mounting that food supplies may start running short. While we should take these concerns seriously, they should [...]

last release: July 2020

Market Monitor

 

From previous month forecast

From previous season

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeans

 Easing

 Neutral

 Tightening

Despite a major production setback in the EU, global wheat output in 2020 is forecast to remain close to last year’s above-average level while world maize production is heading to a record, leading to a sharp increase in maize inventories. With rice production also bound for a record and soybeans making a strong recovery, prospects for all four AMIS crops indicate a generally comfortable global supply situation. However, in many parts of the world, local markets brace for the looming impacts of COVID-19, amid uncertainties related to demand, logistics and even access to food.

2019/20

2020/21 

estimate

4 Jun

2 Jul

Production

761.5

758.3

761.5

Supply

1033.6

1034.5

1036.5

Utilization

756.9

754.3

754.1

Trade

177.1

177.5

178.7

Ending Stocks

275.0

280.3

283.8

in million tonnes

  • Wheat production forecast for 2020 revised upwards m/m, mostly reflecting higher production in India and improved prospects in Australia and the Russian Federation outweighing a downward revisions for the EU and the UK.
  • Utilization in 2020/21 still expected to decline from the 2019/20 estimated level given a likely contraction in demand for both feed and industrial use.  
  • Trade in 2020/21 (July/June) pointing to a modest expansion from 2019/20, boosted by large export supplies and competitive prices.
  • Stocks (ending in 2021) raised further, on bigger buildups in countries where production prospects have improved; now expanding by 3.2 percent from opening levels.

2019/20

2020/21 

estimate

4 Jun

2 Jul

Production

1141.2

1207.1

1208.8

Supply

1502.9

1569.5

1567.8

Utilization

1137.7

1168.7

1169.0

Trade

168.0

170.0

170.1

Ending Stocks

359.0

397.2

395.5

in million tonnes

  • Maize production forecast for 2020 scaled up on improved crop prospects in Brazil and the EU; now almost 6 percent higher than last year’s record.
  • Utilization in 2020/21 nearly unchanged m/m and still set to increase by 2.7 percent from 2019/20, reflecting a stronger y/y expansion in feed use and a modest rebound in industrial use. 
  • Trade for 2020/21 (July/June) forecast to exceed the 2019/20 estimated record volume by 1.2 percent, driven by continued strong import demand, ample export availabilities and relatively low international prices. 
  • Stocks (ending 2021) revised downwards, but still forecast to increase by over 10 percent from the previous season to a new record, with most of the increase in the US.

2019/20

2020/21 

estimate

4 Jun

2 Jul

Production

500.8

508.7

509.2

Supply

685.5

692.1

692.6

Utilization

502.2

510.0

510.4

Trade

44.9

47.6

47.6

Ending Stocks

183.5

182.0

182.2

in million tonnes

  • Rice production in 2020 up slightly m/m, largely on account of improved prospects in South America, namely for Brazil, Bolivia and Uruguay.
  • Utilization in 2020/21 seen at an all-time high, as food assistance programmes and more ample availabilities boost food use in Asia and Africa.
  • Trade in 2021 essentially unchanged m/m, with greater exports by India and Thailand expected to support much of the forecasted y/y expansion.
  • Stocks (2020/21 carry-out) raised marginally, but still seen down slightly y/y, as continued build-ups in the major rice exporters are outweighed by drawdowns in China, but also in Indonesia and Bangladesh.

2019/20

2020/21 

estimate

4 Jun

2 Jul

Production

338.0

364.8

364.3

Supply

398.4

415.2

414.7

Utilization

355.4

365.9

365.5

Trade

154.0

158.2

158.4

Ending Stocks

50.3

49.4

49.1

in million tonnes

  • Soybean 2020/21 production reduced marginally, but still anticipated to recover strongly from the previous season. 
  • Utilization in 2020/21 trimmed somewhat as downward adjustments for Brazil and India outweigh upward revisions for the US; global soybean crush anticipated to grow by 3 percent y/y. 
  • Trade in 2020/21 (Oct/Sept) left virtually unchanged m/m, while the prospective y/y expansion in global transactions would be largely driven by increased demand from China. 
  • Inventory forecasts (2020/21 carry-out) scaled down in a number of countries, outweighing a further upward adjustment in China; globally, closing stocks are set to decrease moderately from last season’s level.

INDICATORS

COUNTRY DATA